Coalition surges to 55–45 lead in Victorian Newspoll a month before election

Labor's primary vote drops to 24 per cent; Albanese net approval hits record low of -30 in federal YouGov poll

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published27 October 2026

Read Time2 min

A month before the November 28 Victorian state election, a Newspoll published by The Conversation shows the Coalition with a 55–45 two-party preferred lead over Labor, a three-point gain since July. The Coalition's primary vote stands at 33 per cent, Labor at 24 per cent, One Nation at 20 per cent and the Greens at 14 per cent. If replicated on election day, the Coalition would win a majority of lower house seats.

The poll was the first since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier in late July. Carroll's net approval improved by 18 points from Allan's last reading but remained deeply negative at -28, with 58 per cent dissatisfied. Liberal leader Jess Wilson posted a net approval of +10, up two points, and led Carroll as preferred premier by 48–34.

On preferred government, 28 per cent of respondents wanted a majority Coalition government, 28 per cent a Coalition-One Nation government, 25 per cent a Labor-Greens government and 19 per cent a Labor majority government.

Separately, a federal YouGov poll for News24 conducted October 13-20 gave One Nation a primary vote of 27 per cent, Labor 24 per cent (a record low this term), the Coalition 23 per cent and the Greens 14 per cent. By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation 53–47 but was tied with the Coalition at 50–50.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval fell two points to a record low of -30, with 62 per cent dissatisfied. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's net approval rose three points from a record low to -14. Albanese led Taylor as better prime minister by 41–39.

On other issues in the federal poll, 65 per cent of respondents expected unemployment to increase in the next 12 months, 62 per cent thought radical Islam a growing concern, and 61 per cent rated antisemitism a serious or very serious problem.

The Conversation also reported that in Brazil's presidential runoff, incumbent Lula of the Workers' Party overturned a first-round loss to defeat far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.8 per cent of the vote.

Morgan polling for the Victorian upper house, based on July-September surveys, gives the Coalition 12 of 40 seats, Labor ten, the Greens eight and One Nation six, with four undecided. This would leave left and right blocs tied at 18 seats each, a closer contest than other recent polls suggest.

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Victorian primary vote by party, according to the October 15–22 Newspoll

per cent

Newspoll conducted October 15–22 from a sample of 1,017. Source: Newspoll, reported by The Conversation

Analysis

Why This Matters

The Victorian poll points to a likely change of government, with implications for state services and policy direction. The federal YouGov results show Labor at a historically weak position, with One Nation and the Coalition competitive, indicating a volatile national political landscape. The Brazil election result illustrates that first-round deficits can be overcome, adding a layer of unpredictability to upcoming elections globally.

Background

The Victorian election is scheduled for November 28. The Coalition has led in opinion polls for months. In late July, Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier, a change that has not materially improved Labor's position. Federally, the Albanese government has seen declining approval since the last election, with primary support now trailing One Nation.

What to Watch

The final month of the Victorian campaign and any further polling shifts. Whether the federal Labor government can arrest its decline in the remaining months of the term. The New Zealand election on November 7, which may set a regional political trend.

Sources

Coalition surges to big lead in a Victorian Newspoll · The Conversation

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedA Victorian Newspoll about a month before the November 28 election put the Coalition ahead of Labor 55–45 on two-party preferred.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “A month before the November 28 Victorian election, a Newspoll has the Coalition surging to a 55–45 two-party lead over Labor.”
SupportedThe Coalition’s lead was a three-point gain since the previous poll in July.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “After preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 55–45, a three-point gain for the Coalition.”
Partly supportedThe Newspoll itself was published by The Conversation.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “A month before the November 28 Victorian election, a Newspoll has the Coalition surging to a 55–45 two-party lead over Labor.”
SupportedOn these figures, the Coalition would win a majority of lower house seats.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “The Coalition would win a majority of lower house seats on these figures.”
SupportedLabor’s primary vote in the Victorian poll was 24 per cent.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “Labor had 24% (down four), One Nation 20% (up one), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 9% (steady).”
SupportedThis poll was the first since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier in late July.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “the late July Newspoll that was taken just before Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier”
SupportedCarroll’s net approval was -28, an 18-point improvement on Allan, with 58 per cent dissatisfied.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “Carroll’s net approval was -28 (58% dissatisfied, 30% satisfied), an 18-point improvement on Allan.”
SupportedJess Wilson led Carroll as preferred premier 48–34.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “Wilson led Carroll as preferred premier by 48–34 (51–32 against Allan previously).”
SupportedThe federal YouGov poll put Labor’s primary vote at a record low for any poll this term, 24 per cent.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “This is a record low for Labor in any poll this term.”
SupportedAlbanese’s net approval fell to a record low of -30, with 62 per cent dissatisfied.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “Albanese’s net approval was down two points to a record low of -30 (62% dissatisfied, 32% satisfied).”
SupportedIn Brazil’s runoff, Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.8 per cent of the vote after losing the first round.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “But in Sunday’s runoff, Lula defeated Bolsonaro by 51.8–48.2.”
SupportedMorgan’s July–September upper-house analysis projected 12 Coalition seats, ten Labor, eight Greens and six One Nation, with four undecided.The Conversation – Articles (AU): “It gave the Coalition 12 of the 40 upper house seats, Labor ten, the Greens eight and One Nation six, with four seats undecided.”