2028 race begins as Democratic sweep reshapes presidential field

Vance blames Iran war for GOP losses; Messina has met with 29 potential candidates

By LineZotpaper

Published5 November 2026

Updated5 November 2026

Read Time3 min

Sources3 outlets

The next US presidential election effectively began the day after Democrats swept the midterms, with prospective candidates in both parties jockeying for position and Vice President JD Vance offering a postmortem blaming the war in Iran for Republicans' losses.

Vance said on X that the reason Republicans lost was the war. He added that anyone who wants to argue losing the Senate for the next six years was worth the war should do so, and that any honest conversation about where the party goes from here must start there. President Donald Trump did not dispute the assessment but told reporters of Vance's potential run: 'Maybe he won't run.'

Tuesday's Democratic wave gave the party control of Congress and Pennsylvania's state legislature, delivering a sharp rebuke to Trump's agenda as prospective candidates began positioning for the 2028 contest to succeed him, since he is constitutionally barred from a third term.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich wrote that if the administration had won a big victory Vance would have had an enormous argument to be the inevitable nominee, but now a good bit of the luster has come off. He listed six other Republicans who could compete, calling the race wide open. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis described GOP losses as close to an extinction-level event in many parts of the country, holding up his state as an exception.

On the Democratic side, operatives expect a crowded field. Barack Obama's 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina said he has already met with 29 potential candidates. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro won reelection by 22 points and was immediately asked about a presidential bid on national television. When asked if he wanted to say he was in for 2028, Shapiro said people want fundamental change and real reform, and more importantly they want their leaders to get stuff done.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris said she was elated to see Democrats' commanding performance particularly across the South, and wants to play a role regardless of whether she decides to run again. 'I believe I have a responsibility to contribute to the direction of the party, in particular around lifting up voices and issues that I have an experience with,' she said.

Progressives seized on Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate win, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. Progressive Change Campaign Committee co-founder Adam Green said the win changes the 2028 presidential race, arguing a bold anti-establishment economic fighter can win battleground states.

Both parties face internal debates. Democrats are divided over whether to tack to the centre or move further left on issues from healthcare to foreign policy. Republican hopefuls must figure out how to distance themselves from Trump after the repudiation of his policies without losing his base.

Next week, several prospective Democratic candidates including Pete Buttigieg and Representative Ro Khanna are scheduled to attend a gathering in Denver hosted by Majority Democrats, a group that advocates for younger party leaders and a more centrist platform. The group's chair said the event is meant to spark a debate about the party's future before the 2028 race takes shape.

RSS

The Daily Edition

The front page in your inbox each weekday morning: the lead, the picks, and why each one earned its place.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The midterm sweep immediately reshuffles the 2028 presidential deck: Democrats gain momentum and a deep bench, while Republicans must decide how to move on from Trump without fracturing the MAGA base.
The outcome of the Republican primary will determine whether the party's future lies with Trump-aligned candidates like Vance or with those seeking to broaden the coalition after losing young, Hispanic, and some Black voters.
The Democratic primary will test whether the party unites around a moderate, a progressive, or a candidate who can bridge the factions following a wave election in which both wings claimed wins. n## BackgroundnThe 2026 midterms delivered a Democratic wave that gave the party control of the US Senate, the House majority, and several state governments. The results were seen as a referendum on President Trump's handling of the economy, foreign policy, and the unpopular war in Iran, which he launched in February. Trump is constitutionally barred from a third term, making 2028 a wide-open race. Vice President JD Vance, who had been the leading Republican prospect, now faces vulnerablity, while Democrats have a crowded field of governors, senators, and former officials who have been quietly preparing.n

Key PerspectivesnJD Vance: The reason we lost is the war. If you'd like to argue it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years, then do so. Any honest conversation must start there.nNewt Gingrich: If the administration had won a big victory Vance would have had an enormous argument to be the inevitable nominee. Now a good bit of the lustre has come off the bloom. The scale of Republican defeat makes the race for the GOP nomination wide open.nJosh Shapire: People want fundamental change, real reform. More importantly they want their leaders to get stuff done, they want real results.nKamaa Harris: She believes she has a responsibility to contribute to the direction of the party, particularly around lifting up voices and issues she has experience with, whether in office or not.nAdam Green (Progressive Change Campaign Committee): Abul El-Sayed's win changes the 2028 presidential race. A bold anti-establishment economic fighter can win battleground states. Period.nJim Messina (Obama 2012 campaign manager): He has already met with 29 potential candidates.nLauren Hitt (Democratic strategist): We're going to spend a year fighting out who actually has the mandate, left, centre, populit, and then in 2028 we'll have our answer.nJane Kleeb (President, Association of State Democratic Committees): It's not one wing, it's all of the wings. The big test is which candidates can communiate that they are not only from one wing.n

What to Watch

Whether Vance formally declares a run or steps aside, and whether other Republicans like Cruz, DeSantis, or Huckabee Sanders make early moves.n- The Denver gathering of Majority Democrats next week, which may produce a platform or explicitly signal a moderite challenge.n- Whether Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, or Shapiro take concrete steps toward a campaign, such as hiring staff in early states.

Sources

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 3 sources: 12 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedThe 2028 election season has begun, with prospects in both parties jockeying after the Democratic midterm wave.WHYY: “The next election season has already begun. Presidential prospects in both parties jockeyed for position on Wednesday, even as the political world was digesting the impact of the Democratic wave that crashed over American politics the night before.”
SupportedJD Vance blamed the Iran war for Republicans’ losses.WHYY: ““The reason we lost is the war,” Vance said in a morning postmortem post on X.”
SupportedJim Messina said he had met with 29 potential candidates.Axios: “Barack Obama's 2012 campaign manager, Jim Messina, told Bloomberg TV this week that he's already met with 29 potential candidates.”
SupportedThe Democratic wave gave the party control of Congress.WHYY: “He also had a personal role in Democrats winning the House majority … a fresh wave of Democrats will take the Senate majority”
SupportedDemocrats gained control of Pennsylvania’s state legislature.WHYY: “Democrats flipped the state Senate for the first time in nearly 50 years, achieving their elusive “trifecta” of control in Harrisburg.”
SupportedTrump did not dispute Vance’s assessment and told reporters, “Maybe he won’t run.”WHYY: “Trump did not dispute Vance’s assessment, even as he defended the war. But he also made no effort to help Vance’s potential prospects, telling reporters, “Maybe he won’t run.””
SupportedNewt Gingrich wrote that Vance would have had an enormous argument to be the inevitable nominee after a big administration victory, but that some of his luster had since faded.WHYY: ““If the administration had won a big victory, Vice President JD Vance would have had an enormous argument to be the inevitable nominee,” Gingrich wrote on X. “Now … a good bit of the luster has come off the bloom.””
SupportedRon DeSantis described the Republican losses as close to an extinction-level event in many parts of the country and held up Florida as an exception.WHYY: “Former Trump rival Ron DeSantis, the outgoing Republican governor of Florida, was unsparing Wednesday in describing the scope of GOP losses, calling it “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans in many parts of the country.” He held up his state, which elected Republicans to the governor’s office and U.S. Senate, as an exception”
SupportedJosh Shapiro won reelection by 22 points and faced a question about a presidential bid on national television the next morning.Axios: “Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a centrist technocrat who campaigned on "getting sh*t done," won reelection by 22 points.”
SupportedKamala Harris said she felt responsible for contributing to the party’s direction, including by lifting up voices and issues she has experience with.WHYY: ““I believe I have a responsibility to contribute to the direction of the party, in particular around lifting up voices and issues that I have an experience with,” she said.”
SupportedAbdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.RTÉ News: “Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is the first Muslim elected to the US Senate”
SupportedPete Buttigieg and Ro Khanna are scheduled to attend a Denver gathering next week hosted by Majority Democrats, whose chair said it is meant to spark debate about the party’s future before the 2028 race takes shape.RTÉ News: “Next week, several prospective Democratic candidates, including Mr Buttigieg and another progressive, US Representative Ro Khanna of California, are scheduled to attend a gathering in Denver hosted by Majority Democrats.”