Middle East oil exports surpassed pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd), according to provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler. Before the war, exports averaged about 18 million bpd.
The surge has largely been attributed to US naval escorts shepherding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and an increase in ship-to-ship transfers that reduce the risk of being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. Oil prices have remained high, which analysts put down to elevated insurance rates and a market factoring in the possibility of a return to hot war.
But Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, offered a different explanation during an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston. "I suspect there is a toll that's being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage," she said. "I also suspect that these countries know that this is unsustainable from a perspective of [the] US escorting [ships], and also unsustainable from them paying Iran 10 percent of their cargo, or 20 percent of their cargo." She described it as a "race to get out as much as possible, as quickly as possible before the war restarts."
Brohard presented the claim as speculation rather than a finding backed by evidence, and it has not been independently verified. However, as early as March, the shipping journal Lloyd's List reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had already imposed a "toll booth" system to control vessel traffic through the strait. Before the war, one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz.