Divergent Balkan politics shape ties with Israel amid Gaza war

Experts say each country in the region pursues its own policy based on domestic calculations and ethnic identity

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The Balkan states have failed to form a unified position on Israel’s war in Gaza, with each country's stance shaped by domestic politics, unresolved ethnic divisions and transactional diplomacy rather than a shared regional outlook, analysts say.

Throughout Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, European nations have largely shifted from unconditional solidarity with Israel to expressing concern over its conduct. But in the Balkans, the picture is fragmented, according to experts.

“The Balkan countries have almost no common positions at all, and so it’s not surprising their positions towards Israel and Gaza are all over the map,” Marko Prelec, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera. “Each country goes its own way.”

Florian Bieber, a professor of Southeast European history and politics at the University of Graz, said regional consensus is nearly impossible. “The position towards Israel is strongly shaped by domestic politics and also national narratives, which makes a regional or even a country-specific position unlikely.”

Nowhere is this fragmentation more evident than in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the war in Gaza has deepened existing ethno-national divisions. Bosniak political representatives and much of the public in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have expressed strong solidarity with Palestinians. Leaders in the Serb-majority entity, Republika Srpska, have been openly pro-Israel, and some Croat political figures have adopted a more sympathetic tone towards Israel.

“Bosniak solidarity with Palestinians is often seen not just through an ideological lens, but also from the perspective of war and being a victim of Serb nationalist aggression, comparing the Palestinian experience with the Bosniak experience in the 1990s,” Bieber explained.

Foreign policy analyst and journalist Bosko Jaksic told Al Jazeera that for former Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend – Jews and Orthodox Serbs against Muslims.”

Prelec noted that while there is genuine revulsion towards Israeli policy in Gaza and sympathy for Palestinians – particularly among Bosnian Muslims – most countries in the region take their positions based on unrelated interests.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The lack of a unified Balkan position on Israel-Gaza weakens the EU's ability to present a coherent foreign policy, as several Balkan states are EU members or candidates.
  • Ethnic and political divisions within Bosnia and Herzegovina risk being inflamed by external conflicts, potentially destabilising the fragile Dayton peace agreement.
  • Divergent policies could complicate regional security cooperation and open the door for outside powers to exploit differences.

Background

The Balkan region emerged from the violent breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, leaving deep ethnic and religious divides that continue to shape politics. Bosnia and Herzegovina remains split between a Bosniak-Croat federation and the Serb-run Republika Srpska, each with its own leadership and foreign policy inclinations. The war in Gaza has provided a new arena for these long-standing rivalries to play out.

Key Perspectives

Bosniak leaders and public: Strong solidarity with Palestinians, drawing parallels between their own experience of ethnic cleansing and war in the 1990s and the situation in Gaza. Serb leaders in Republika Srpska: Openly pro-Israel, viewing alignment with Israel as a way to counter perceived Muslim solidarity and strengthen ties with the United States. Policy analysts: Argue that Balkan positions on Israel are driven less by the Middle East conflict itself and more by domestic political calculations and historical grievances.

What to Watch

  • Further moves by Republika Srpska to strengthen diplomatic or economic ties with Israel, potentially deepening internal Bosnia divisions.
  • Whether EU institutions attempt to mediate a common Balkan stance or apply pressure on candidate countries to align with EU foreign policy positions.
  • Reactions from Russia and other external actors who may seek to exploit Balkan divisions for their own geopolitical ends.

Sources

Zotpaper

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