El Niño drives droughts, fires and storms across the globe as record event persists

From Indonesia's worst wildfire season since 2015 to an active typhoon season in East Asia, the climate phenomenon is reshaping weather patterns worldwide

By LineZotpaper

Published20 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Sources2 outlets

El Niño, which has strengthened to record-breaking levels, is already causing significant weather disruptions across multiple continents, including severe wildfires in Indonesia, reduced monsoon rainfall in India, and contrasting hurricane activity between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The World Meteorological Agency says the phenomenon will persist until at least 2027.

El Niño has been strengthening for several months and is already having a significant impact on global weather patterns, according to the BBC's lead weather presenter Sarah Keith-Lucas. The World Meteorological Agency reports that the record-breaking El Niño will strengthen further and persist until at least 2027.

In Indonesia, the country is battling its worst wildfire season since 2015. Since January, at least 895,657 hectares of land have been burned – nearly six times the size of Greater London and more than double the area burned last year without El Niño's influence. The wildfires have forced school closures and increased hospital admissions across Indonesia. Millions of people in Sumatra and Kalimantan have been exposed to toxic haze, with around 175,000 people suffering from respiratory illness. More than 40,000 cases, ranging from coughs to bronchitis and pneumonia, involve toddlers.

The eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes so far, including 10 major hurricanes. This already exceeds the average number for an entire season, with two months left. Hurricane Polo, for example, underwent rapid intensification, producing wind gusts of 180 mph (285 kmh), fueled by very warm ocean waters linked to El Niño. Twice in the past month, three hurricanes were churning simultaneously in the same basin.

In contrast, the Atlantic hurricane season has remained quiet. El Niño increases wind shear in the north Atlantic, which tears apart storms and limits formation. Only one hurricane – Isaias – has formed, making landfall in the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. This was the latest-forming hurricane on record in the satellite era (1960s onward). So far, only eight tropical storms have been named in the Atlantic.

The drier and warmer theme has also taken hold in India, where monsoon rainfall has been 13% below average. While the Indian Meteorological Department considers this still within the 'normal' range, the average masks regional variations. East and north-east India were around 26% drier than average, falling into 'exceptional' drought, while southern states were 24% drier. Even where rainfall was closer to average, it flipped between long dry spells and extreme rainfall, adding stress to agriculture.

Further west in the Pacific, eastern China and Japan have experienced an active typhoon season. Storms including Maysak and Dujuan have brought widespread floods and landslides. According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, there have been 10 tropical cyclones forming in the western Pacific – the highest number in a season since 1966. During El Niño, cyclones tend to form further east but can feed on warmer waters over a longer distance, becoming more intense before making landfall.

Analysis

Why This Matters

El Niño is already causing severe humanitarian and economic impacts: respiratory illness affecting hundreds of thousands in Indonesia, agricultural stress in India from erratic monsoon rains, and destructive hurricanes and typhoons in several regions.
The event is set to continue into 2027, meaning more extreme weather lies ahead, potentially straining disaster response systems and global food supplies.
Understanding El Niño's regional effects is critical for preparedness, especially as climate change may amplify its impacts.

Background

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It disrupts normal weather patterns worldwide, typically bringing drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, increased rainfall to parts of the Americas, and altered hurricane and typhoon activity. The current El Niño has been described as record-breaking by the World Meteorological Agency, and it is expected to intensify further before peaking later in the year.

Key Perspectives

Scientists and meteorologists: They note that while many of the observed impacts align with typical El Niño patterns, the scale of some events – such as Indonesia's wildfire area and the simultaneous Pacific hurricanes – is unusual. They caution that other factors may also be influencing regional weather, such as in India where multiple patterns affect the monsoon. Affected governments: Indonesia is grappling with a public health crisis from haze, while India faces agricultural challenges from uneven monsoon rains. Japan and China are dealing with repeated typhoons and landslides. World Meteorological Agency: The organisation has warned that the El Niño will strengthen further and persist until at least 2027, suggesting that current disruptions are only the beginning.

What to Watch

Whether the Atlantic hurricane season remains quiet or produces late-season storms as El Niño's wind shear effects may shift.
The evolution of Indonesia's fire season as El Niño peaks, potentially worsening haze and health impacts.
Any signs of drought relief in India if monsoon patterns change before the season ends.
The number of additional typhoons that may form in the western Pacific and their tracks toward Japan and eastern China.

Sources

Five ways El Niño is affecting the weather around the world · BBC News
Five ways El Niño is affecting the weather around the world · BBC News

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9 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 6 supported.

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Partly supportedHeadline: El Niño 'drives' droughts, fires and storms across the globe.BBC News: “Countries including Indonesia, India and the United States have been experiencing droughts, floods and heatwaves in line with projections about how extreme weather events will be supercharged by the phenomenon.”
Partly supportedEl Niño is already causing significant weather disruptions across multiple continents, including severe wildfires in Indonesia, reduced monsoon rainfall in India, and contrasting hurricane activity.BBC News: “India is influenced by a number of different weather patterns that can affect the monsoon season and so scientists suggest that El Niño may not have been the only factor.”
SupportedThe World Meteorological Agency says the phenomenon will persist until at least 2027.BBC News: “The World Meteorological Agency says the record-breaking El Niño will strengthen further and persist until at least 2027.”
SupportedSince January, at least 895,657 hectares of Indonesian land have burned, nearly six times the size of Greater London and more than double the area burned last year without El Niño's influence.BBC News: “since January, at least 895,657 hectares of land – nearly six times the size of Greater London – have been burned. This is more than twice the area burned last year without the influence of El Niño.”
SupportedAround 175,000 people have suffered respiratory illness from toxic haze, and more than 40,000 cases involve toddlers.BBC News: “around 175,000 people have suffered from respiratory illness. More than 40,000 cases – which range from coughs to bronchitis and more serious conditions like pneumonia – involve toddlers.”
SupportedThe eastern Pacific has 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes so far, already above the typical full-season count with two months left.BBC News: “There have been 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes, including 10 major hurricanes. This is already above the number that would typically develop in the whole of an average season, with two months left to go until its end.”
Partly supportedEl Niño increases wind shear in the north Atlantic, which tears apart storms and limits formation.BBC News: “El Nino has a tendency to increase wind shear in the north Atlantic, a factor which tears apart storms and limits formation.”
SupportedIndia's monsoon rainfall has been 13% below average, and the east and north-east were about 26% drier than average, in 'exceptional' drought, while southern states were 24% drier.BBC News: “the essential monsoon rainfall has been 13% below average. ... the east and north-east were around 26% drier than average and put into 'exceptional' drought. Southern states of India were 24% drier than average.”
SupportedAccording to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, there have been 10 tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, the highest number in a season since 1966.BBC News: “According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, there have been 10 tropical cyclones forming in the western Pacific Ocean - the highest number in a season since 1966.”