A wave of intense and, at times, unpredictable storms exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern, forecast by the UK Met Office to be the strongest in living memory, has killed dozens, shuttered major airports and wiped out crops and infrastructure across East Asia, with forecasts suggesting the worst may not be over.
In October, Typhoon Champi, equivalent to a category five hurricane with 295km/h winds, approached Taiwan’s north-eastern coast as nearly all of the island shut down. It skirted past without making landfall, but disrupted flights across Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan; power was cut to 15,000 homes in southern Japan’s Okinawa islands. In June, Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos raced towards Japan’s eastern coast simultaneously, forcing one million people to evacuate.
The extreme weather has been exacerbated by El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in which warm waters pooling in the eastern Pacific and altered wind patterns drive extreme weather events. This year’s El Niño has been forecast by the UK Met Office to be the 'strongest in living memory' and is likely to last until February or March. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric, which measures the total intensity of a season’s storms, is forecast to be nearly double the 30-year average for South East and East Asia.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific soared to 4C above normal in October, the highest since records began in 1949, surpassing the previous record of 3.6C set in December 1997. China’s climate agency has warned that sea surface temperatures will continue to rise over the next three months because of El Niño.
'The Pacific can be likened to someone burning with fever,' said Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines' national weather bureau. 'It can go into convulsions soon,' she told a press briefing in Manila in September.
In August, Typhoon Chan-Hom crossed Japan from east to west, an unusual trajectory that baffled storm watchers. Manila-based climatologist Rafaela Jane Delfino and colleagues simulated warmer conditions on past typhoons and found that higher temperatures increased total accumulated rainfall by 26%, calling the findings 'very, very scary'.
Governments are taking immediate steps: Japan has urged citizens to stockpile food and secure outdoor furniture; China has asked local officials to identify vulnerable areas and is upgrading warning systems; the Philippines and its neighbours are preparing for disruptions to food production and have increased support for farmers.
The United Nations Development Programme in Asia and the Pacific said the window for action is 'closing'. 'How severely a community experiences an El Niño is decided years in advance, by where roads and settlements are built, how water is managed, who is covered by social protection and whether public budgets have room to absorb a shock,' the agency said, adding that every El Niño tests the resilience communities have built and this one should drive them to build more.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The extreme typhoon season highlights the immediate human and economic toll of climate variability, impacting millions of lives and critical infrastructure across East Asia.
- Disruptions to flights, transport, and agriculture could have cascading effects on global supply chains and food prices.
- The forecast of continued high sea temperatures suggests the threat may persist beyond the typical season, testing the preparedness of governments and communities.
Background
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that warms the Pacific and alters global weather patterns. The 2026 event is forecast to be one of the strongest on record. East Asia's typhoon season typically peaks from July to October, but this year's storms have been particularly intense and frequent, with some forming further east and lasting longer due to record-breaking sea surface temperatures.
Key Perspectives
- Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines' national weather bureau: The Pacific is 'burning with fever' and may 'go into convulsions soon'.
- Rafaela Jane Delfino, climatologist: Her simulations show warmer conditions could increase rainfall from typhoons by 26%, which she describes as 'very, very scary'.
- United Nations Development Programme in Asia and the Pacific: The window for action is closing, and the degree of El Niño impact is determined years in advance by infrastructure and social protection.
What to Watch
- Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific: continued high readings could spawn additional late-season typhoons.
- Government implementation of preparation measures: whether Japan's stockpiling, China's monitoring upgrades, and regional agricultural support are sufficient.
- Food production in the region, particularly rice, as agricultural disruption could affect prices and supply.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
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- SupportedEl Niño-exacerbated storms have battered East Asia, killing dozens.BBC News: “A wave of intense and, at times, unpredictable storms exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern has killed dozens, shuttered major airports and wiped out crops and infrastructure across a swathe of East Asia.”
- Partly supportedSolis says the Pacific is “burning with fever.”BBC News: “The Pacific can be likened to someone "burning with fever", says Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines' national weather bureau.”
- Partly supportedStorm intensity is forecast to be nearly double the average.BBC News: “This year, the ACE reading for South East and East Asia is forecast to be nearly double the 30-year average.”
- SupportedGovernments are preparing for impacts.BBC News: “Countries are bracing for the immediate impact.”
- SupportedA wave of intense, sometimes unpredictable storms exacerbated by El Niño has killed dozens, shuttered major airports and wiped out crops and infrastructure across East Asia.BBC News: “A wave of intense and, at times, unpredictable storms exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern has killed dozens, shuttered major airports and wiped out crops and infrastructure across a swathe of East Asia.”
- SupportedThe UK Met Office forecast this year’s El Niño to be the “strongest in living memory”.BBC News: “This year's El Niño, which the UK Met Office has forecast to be the "strongest in living memory", is likely to last until February or March.”
- SupportedTyphoon Champi had 295km/h winds, equivalent to a category five hurricane.BBC News: “Equivalent to a category five hurricane, Typhoon Champi's 295km/h (193mph) winds had the power to flatten homes and whip up destructive waves.”
- SupportedChampi skirted Taiwan without making landfall and hundreds of flights were cancelled in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan.BBC News: “Thankfully it did not make landfall in Taiwan, skirting past the island while dousing it in rain. But it had far-reaching impacts : hundreds of flights were cancelled in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan.”
- SupportedTyphoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos raced towards Japan’s eastern coast simultaneously in June, forcing one million people to evacuate.BBC News: “In June, Japan watched two storms - Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos - race towards its eastern coast simultaneously, forcing one million people to evacuate.”
- SupportedEquatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures reached 4C above normal in October, the highest since records began in 1949; the previous record was 3.6C in December 1997.BBC News: “Last month, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific - the area monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency for its El Niño predictions - soared to 4C above normal, the highest since records began in 1949. The previous record - 3.6C - was set in December 1997.”
- SupportedSolis said, “It can go into convulsions soon,” at a press briefing in Manila in September.BBC News: “"It can go into convulsions soon," she said at a press briefing in Manila in September.”
- SupportedDelfino and colleagues found that higher temperatures increased total accumulated rainfall by 26%, describing the findings as “very, very scary”.BBC News: “They arrived at what she describes as "very, very scary findings": higher temperatures increased total accumulated rainfall by 26%.”