Indonesia is bracing for a severe wildfire season as the El Niño weather pattern dries vast areas of peatlands, a type of wetland that stores massive amounts of carbon. According to reporting by Max Kim and Muktita Suhartono in The New York Times, these conditions have historically led to some of the country's most destructive fires, and 2026 is shaping up to be no exception.
The fires, which often smolder underground in peat for weeks, release immense clouds of toxic haze that can blanket Southeast Asia, disrupting air travel, shuttering schools, and causing respiratory illnesses. Peatlands are especially dangerous when drained for agriculture—often for palm oil or pulpwood plantations—as they become flammable tinderboxes.
This year's El Niño, a cyclical warming of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather, has brought less rain to Indonesia's fire-prone regions. Combined with land-clearing practices that involve burning, the risk has escalated dramatically. Scientists and environmental groups have long warned that the degradation of peatlands, which cover about 15 million hectares in Indonesia, turns them from carbon sinks into carbon sources.
The government has faced international pressure to curb the fires, which in 2015 caused an estimated $16 billion in economic losses and released more daily carbon emissions than the entire U.S. economy. In response, authorities have deployed water-bombing aircraft and enforced bans on slash-and-burn agriculture, but enforcement remains uneven.
Local communities, meanwhile, bear the brunt of the health impacts. Hospitals often see spikes in emergency visits for asthma and other lung conditions during haze episodes. Farmers also face crop losses and disrupted livelihoods.
This year's fires are still in early stages, but satellite data already shows hotspots flaring across Sumatra and Kalimantan. If El Niño persists into the dry season, experts warn the situation could spiral rapidly, with international neighbors like Malaysia and Singapore monitoring the haze closely.
The long-term solution, researchers say, lies in restoring peatlands' natural water levels and ending the cycle of drainage and burning. But such efforts require sustained political will and investment.