Elon Musk disputes NASA safety panel's estimate of lunar Starship launches

SpaceX founder says 6 to 8 flights needed, not 22, as Artemis timelines tighten

By LineZotpaper

Published23 October 2026

Read Time2 min

SpaceX chief Elon Musk has pushed back against a NASA safety panel's suggestion that around 22 launches might be required to support a Starship landing on the Moon, calling the figure "way too high" and putting the actual number at 6 to 8. The disagreement, aired on X, comes as the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel also warned about future access to low Earth orbit if SpaceX phases out its Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft.

NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) delivered a mixed assessment of the agency's Artemis program, praising the upcoming Artemis II mission and new NASA administrator Jared Isaacman while flagging concerns about the number of launches needed for Starship-based lunar landings.

The panel suggested that approximately 22 launches might be necessary to support the Human Landing System (HLS) variant of Starship, which requires in-space refueling. During Apollo, a single Saturn V launch carried a fully fueled Lunar Module to the Moon. The challenge lies in demonstrating reliable transfers of cryogenic propellant between spacecraft at scale.

Musk responded quickly on X, disputing the figure. "That's way too high," he wrote. "Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

To date, SpaceX has conducted one Starship test flight to orbit. If the panel's higher estimate proves accurate, Musk's team faces a significant operational challenge.

The Artemis program has already been rescoped, with Artemis III now planned as a low Earth orbit demonstration of lunar technologies from both Blue Origin and SpaceX in 2027. The program remains ambitious, particularly with the political push to land humans on the Moon before President Trump leaves office.

ASAP also raised concerns about future US access to low Earth orbit. SpaceX's plans to phase out Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft could complicate any extension of International Space Station (ISS) operations and the launch of its deorbit vehicle. Meanwhile, Boeing's Starliner capsule, which the panel now estimates could launch as early as mid-January 2027, later than previously suggested, may become the only commercial crew option if Dragon operations end. That would fall short of the redundancy NASA sought.

On the cargo side, only Northrop Grumman's Cygnus and Japan's HTX remain as alternatives to Dragon. Russia continues to carry crews on Soyuz and cargo on Progress freighters, but NASA has long sought US alternatives.

A written report from the safety panel is due early next year.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The number of launches required for Starship refueling directly affects the cost, schedule, and feasibility of returning humans to the Moon under Artemis.
Disagreement between SpaceX and NASA's safety watchdog highlights tensions between commercial pace and oversight.
The potential phase-out of Falcon and Dragon threatens NASA's assured access to the ISS, especially with Starliner still delayed.

Background

The Artemis program aims to land astronauts on the lunar surface for the first time since 1972. Unlike Apollo, which used a single Saturn V with hypergolic propellants, Starship requires multiple tanker flights to transfer cryogenic propellant in orbit. SpaceX has so far flown only one orbital test of Starship. The program has already slipped from an initial 2024 target to a 2027 demonstration mission.

Key Perspectives

Elon Musk / SpaceX: The launch figure of 22 is far too high; 6 to 8 tanker flights will suffice. The company is focused on rapid iteration and has not yet demonstrated orbital refueling at scale. NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel: The panel's estimate, based on current engineering analysis, suggests a much more demanding campaign. The panel also warns about losing redundancy in crew and cargo transport if Dragon retires. Critics and observers: Even with Musk's lower estimate, the number of launches far exceeds Apollo's single shot, and the reliability of cryogenic propellant transfer in space remains unproven. The parallel concerns about Starliner delays and Dragon phase-out risk leaving NASA with limited options for ISS access.

What to Watch

Any Starship orbital test flights that include propellant transfer demonstrations.
The release of ASAP's written report early next year for detailed findings.
Further updates on Boeing's Starliner schedule and NASA's decisions on ISS extension beyond 2030.

Sources

Musk disputes NASA safety panel's lunar launch estimates · www.theregister.com - Articles

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 6 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedThe NASA safety panel made an estimate for the number of lunar Starship launches, which Musk disputes.www.theregister.com - Articles: “Musk disputed the reported suggestion that approximately 22 launches might be needed”
SupportedMusk says 6 to 8 flights are needed, rather than 22.www.theregister.com - Articles: “"Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."”
Not in the sourcesArtemis timelines are tightening.
Not in the sourcesElon Musk is SpaceX's founder.www.theregister.com - Articles: “SpaceX boss Elon Musk”
SupportedMusk wrote, “That's way too high.”www.theregister.com - Articles: “"That's way too high," Musk responded on X.”
SupportedMusk wrote, “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”www.theregister.com - Articles: “"Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."”
Partly supportedThe panel's reported suggestion was that around 22 launches might be needed for a Starship lunar landing.www.theregister.com - Articles: “Musk disputed the reported suggestion that approximately 22 launches might be needed to support a landing by the Human Landing System (HLS) variant of Starship on the Moon.”
SupportedASAP raised concerns about future US access to low Earth orbit if SpaceX phases out Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft.www.theregister.com - Articles: “ASAP praised Artemis II and NASA's new administrator, Jared Isaacman, but raised concerns about future access to low Earth orbit. SpaceX's plans to phase out Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft could complicate any extension of International Space Station (ISS) operations and the launch of its deorbit vehicle.”
SupportedArtemis III is planned as a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration of lunar technologies from Blue Origin and SpaceX.www.theregister.com - Articles: “Even with the rescoping that made Artemis III a low Earth orbit demonstration of lunar technologies from Blue Origin and SpaceX in 2027”
Partly supportedThere is a political push to land humans on the Moon before President Trump leaves office.www.theregister.com - Articles: “the Artemis program remains ambitious, particularly considering the desire to get humans on the lunar surface before President Trump leaves office.”
SupportedThe panel puts Starliner's earliest possible launch in mid-January 2027, later than a previously mooted date.www.theregister.com - Articles: “Last month, a possible uncrewed launch date around December 2026 was mooted, but the panel now puts the earliest possible launch in mid-January 2027, with the schedule still under review.”
Partly supportedCygnus and Japan's HTX are alternatives to Dragon for cargo.www.theregister.com - Articles: “There is also only one US alternative to the cargo variant of Dragon: Northrop Grumman's Cygnus. An international cargo alternative is JAXA's HTV-X.”