Report: 22 Starship launches may be needed for Artemis Moon landing

NASA has treated the number of tanker flights required for a Starship-based lunar lander as a closely guarded metric. In 2023, the director of the agency's Human Landing System, Lisa Watson-Morgan, told Ars Technica, "We have a general idea, but I'm reluctant to say exactly what that is."

Writing for Ars Technica, senior space editor Eric Berger reports that the latest estimate inside NASA is now 22 launches. That count covers the number of times Starship would need to lift off from Earth and transfer propellant to the lander in low-Earth orbit before it can depart for the Moon. The Artemis program plans to use a modified Starship as its Human Landing System, and the 22-launch figure underscores the unprecedented logistical challenge ahead.

NASA has not officially released a number, and the agency has historically maintained that the figure is still evolving. The Ars report provides the clearest picture yet of the scale of operations being contemplated within the space agency.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The number of Starship tanker flights is a critical variable for the Artemis program's cost, schedule, and feasibility.
A 22-launch requirement would represent an unmatched operational tempo and may push back the planned landing date.
The estimate could influence policy debates over the sustainability of the current lunar landing architecture.

Background

The Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon, with SpaceX's Starship serving as the lunar lander. Because Starship must be refueled in orbit before heading to the Moon, NASA has long studied how many tanker launches would be needed. The agency has been reluctant to disclose that figure, calling it an evolving metric. In 2023, NASA HLS director Lisa Watson-Morgan said the agency had a general idea but would not share it. A new report from Ars Technica indicates that the internal number has now crystallized around 22.

Key Perspectives

NASA: Has not publicly confirmed a specific launch count, preferring to keep the number internal while the estimate is still refined. Ars Technica / Eric Berger: The report offers the most specific figure yet, suggesting that within NASA the estimate has moved from an uncertain range to a concrete number. Space policy observers: Are watching for any official response and weighing the operational implications of a 22-flight campaign.

What to Watch

Whether NASA officials comment on the 22-launch figure in the coming weeks.
Progress on SpaceX's Starship test flights, particularly orbital refueling demonstrations.
Any adjustments to the Artemis mission timeline that reflect the higher launch estimate.

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedThe reported estimate is 22 Starship launches for a Moon landing.Ars Technica - All content: “Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.”
SupportedNASA has guarded the launch-count figure for years.Ars Technica - All content: “NASA guards a particular number ... This number has been a moving target over the years.”
SupportedArs Technica reports the estimate as 22.Ars Technica - All content: “Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.”
SupportedNASA has declined for years to publicly specify how many Starship launches are needed.Ars Technica - All content: “The general response from NASA has typically been, 'We don't know for sure, so we're not going to say.'”
Partly supportedNASA's internal estimate has settled at 22 launches.Ars Technica - All content: “This number has been a moving target over the years.”
Not in the sourcesThe 22-launch figure is the highest to emerge publicly.
SupportedIn 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said, “We have a general idea, but I'm reluctant to say exactly what that is.”Ars Technica - All content: “In 2023, for example, the then-director of NASA's Human Landing System, Lisa Watson-Morgan, told Ars, "We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is."”
Not in the sourcesSenior space editor Eric Berger reports the latest estimate.
SupportedThe count refers to Starship launches to fuel the lander in low-Earth orbit for its Moon mission.Ars Technica - All content: “the number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit.”
Not in the sourcesThe Artemis program plans to use a modified Starship as its Human Landing System.
Not in the sourcesThe 22-launch figure underscores an unprecedented logistical challenge.
SupportedNASA has not officially released a number.Ars Technica - All content: “The general response from NASA has typically been, 'We don't know for sure, so we're not going to say.'”