European air fares could rise 20% in 2027, Ryanair boss warns

Michael O'Leary predicts record increase as airlines grapple with soaring jet fuel costs from Middle East conflict

By LineZotpaper

Published20 October 2026

Updated20 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources4 outlets

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary has warned that European air fares could rise by as much as 20% next year, as airlines face soaring jet fuel costs linked to the conflict with Iran. He predicted the increase would be the biggest in European aviation history and that some carriers would go bankrupt or be taken over.

Ryanair's chief executive, Michael O'Leary, has forecast a record increase in European air fares in 2027, driven by a surge in jet fuel prices resulting from the Middle East conflict. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels, O'Leary said fares could rise by 10, 15 or even 20 percent.

"You're going to see air fares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You're going to see the biggest increase in air fares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months," O'Leary said.

Jet fuel prices have soared since the war on Iran began in late February 2026, choking off fuel supplies. The airlines body IATA has predicted jet fuel will average $152 a barrel across 2026, about 70% higher than the previous year and up from $90 in 2025.

While Ryanair and many other carriers hedged their fuel requirements for 2026, O'Leary said most European airlines, including Ryanair, have little protection from April 2027 onwards. Ryanair is 85% unhedged for next year, with only 15% of its 2027 fuel costs covered at $85 a barrel, compared with spot rates currently at roughly double that level.

During his visit to Brussels, O'Leary announced Ryanair would cut 20 routes and more than one million seats from Belgium's winter schedule, following the federal government's decision to raise aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January.

EasyJet has also taken steps to reduce costs, cutting 700,000 seats from its winter schedule in October. The airline reported a £105 million rise in fuel costs in July and has hedged 62% of its first-half 2027 fuel requirements and 37% for the second half.

Industry leaders have warned that some carriers will struggle to survive the fuel price shock. Passenger surveys indicate travellers are braced for higher fares and willing to pay more, but there is uncertainty over how long consumers will be able to afford the increases.

Analysis

Why This Matters

European air travellers face significantly higher ticket prices next year, potentially reducing discretionary travel and hitting household budgets.
Airlines with low fuel hedging are exposed to cost spikes, raising the risk of bankruptcies, consolidation and reduced competition on European routes.
The fuel price shock stems from a geopolitical conflict, highlighting how quickly global instability can impact everyday consumer costs.

Background

Jet fuel typically accounts for a large share of an airline's operating costs. Since the conflict with Iran began in late February 2026, oil and jet fuel prices have risen sharply. IATA has forecast an average jet fuel price of $152 a barrel for 2026, far above $90 in 2025. Airlines often hedge fuel costs by locking in prices in advance, but many carriers, including Ryanair, have limited hedging in place for 2027.

Key Perspectives

Ryanair and airlines: Carriers argue that higher fuel costs must be passed on to customers through higher fares. Ryanair has hedged 80% of 2026 fuel at $67 a barrel but is largely unhedged for 2027. EasyJet has partial hedging in place. Both airlines are cutting capacity to reduce fuel consumption. Travellers and consumer groups: Passengers have told surveyors they expect higher fares and are willing to pay more in the short term, but there are concerns about how long that willingness will last. Higher ticket prices could reduce demand for non-essential travel. Industry analysts: The fuel shock is likely to drive consolidation, with weaker carriers unable to absorb costs potentially being acquired or ceasing operations.

What to Watch

Spot jet fuel prices and whether they remain near current levels or ease.
Hedging announcements from other European airlines for 2027.
Signs of consumer demand softening as higher fares take effect.

Sources

Ryanair’s O’Leary warns of ‘biggest increase’ in EU airfares next year · Politico Europe
European air fares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, Ryanair boss predicts · Business | The Guardian
European air fares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, Ryanair boss predicts · World news | The Guardian
Ryanair CEO tells Europe to ready for biggest airfare hike in history · Kathimerini English

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

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SupportedEuropean air fares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, and O’Leary predicted a record increase.Business | The Guardian: “He forecast these pressures would result in the price of plane tickets rising by as much as 20%.”
SupportedO’Leary said fares could rise by 10%, 15% or 20%, and called it the biggest increase in European air fares in history over the next 12 months.Business | The Guardian: ““You’re going to see air fares rise next year in Europe , I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see ⁠the biggest increase in air fares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months,””
SupportedO’Leary predicted airline bankruptcies and takeovers as a result of the pressures.Business | The Guardian: “Many carriers are not hedged against rising jet fuel costs, Michael O’Leary said, which he predicted would lead to airline bankruptcies and takeovers.”
SupportedJet fuel prices have soared since the war on Iran began in late February 2026, choking off fuel supplies.Business | The Guardian: “Jet fuel prices have soared in recent months, as the war on Iran has choked off fuel supplies.”
SupportedIATA predicted jet fuel would average $152 a barrel across 2026, about 70% higher than in 2025, when it was $90 a barrel.Business | The Guardian: “Jet fuel accounts for a large portion of carriers’ costs. The airlines body IATA previously predicted jet fuel prices would be 70% higher across 2026 – estimated to average $152 (£114) a barrel for the year , compared with $90 in 2025”
SupportedO’Leary said most European carriers, including Ryanair, had little protection from April 2027 onwards.Business | The Guardian: “However, the boss of Europe’s largest airline said most European carriers, including Ryanair, do not have significant hedging in place from April 2027 onwards to protect them if oil prices remain high.”
SupportedRyanair was 85% unhedged for 2027, with 15% of its fuel costs covered at $85 a barrel and spot rates about double that.Business | The Guardian: ““We’re 85% unhedged next year, and most of the other European airlines are in a similar position,” O’Leary said. Ryanair’s hedging contract for 2027 covered 15% of its fuel costs at $85 a barrel, he added, whereas spot rates are currently hovering at about double that level.”
SupportedRyanair announced it would cut 20 routes and more than one million seats from its Belgian winter schedule after the government decided to raise aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January.Business | The Guardian: “During his visit to Brussels, O’Leary announced he was cutting 20 of Ryanair’s routes and more than one million seats from Belgium from the airline’s winter schedule, after the federal government’s decision to increase its aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January.”
Partly supportedEasyJet reported a £105 million annual rise in fuel costs in July.Business | The Guardian: “EasyJet reported a £105m annual rise in fuel costs in July”
SupportedEasyJet had hedged 62% of its first-half 2027 fuel requirements and 37% for the second half, and announced in October it was cutting 700,000 winter seats.Business | The Guardian: “EasyJet reported a £105m annual rise in fuel costs in July, adding it had hedged 62% of its fuel requirements for the first half of 2027 and 37% for the second half of the year. The airline announced in October it was cutting 700,000 seats from its winter schedule in an attempt to save fuel.”
SupportedPassenger surveys showed travellers were braced for higher fares and prepared to spend more, but it was unclear how long they could afford pricier tickets.Business | The Guardian: “Passenger surveys have shown travellers are braced for higher fares and are prepared to spend more, but airlines do not know how long consumers will be able to afford pricier tickets.”