Georgia votes with governor's office and Senate race in the balance

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger expects early and absentee results to be finalized within an hour of polls closing, while a political scientist warns early leads can mislead

By LineZotpaper

Published3 November 2026

Read Time4 min

Follow this storyHear when it moves

Georgia voters go to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide the governor's office, a nationally watched US Senate race and a slate of open statewide posts, with Republicans hoping for an Election Day surge to overturn an early-voting advantage built by Democrats.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told reporters at a Monday press conference that he expected absentee and early voting results to be finalised within an hour of polls closing on Tuesday night, as Georgia law requires.

"I like to go to bed early, so I want to be done before midnight," he said. "We did that in 2024. There's no reason why we won't do it here tomorrow."

Four statewide offices are open this year: governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general, all currently held by Republicans. Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited; Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr and Raffensperger all sought the governorship and lost to Rick Jackson, who has never held political office. Many candidates competing to fill the statewide offices are sitting legislators. Candidates for vacant state House and Senate seats will also likely bring new faces and names when the new session starts in January.

It may take longer to determine a winner in races decided by a small margin, which could happen in hotly contested state House races. Gbemende Johnson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Georgia, cautioned against what she called an election “mirage”, which can lead voters to think a candidate is further ahead than they are before results are fully tallied.

"If the areas that are reporting initially and the quickest tend to favor one candidate or the other, it can give you the sense that oh, that candidate is going to take it home," she said. "There's always the question of where are they coming from? Are they areas that are traditionally red, traditionally blue, or maybe there's a hue of purple?" She added: "That is why you want to be careful about early assessments."

Georgia voters do not indicate their party affiliation when registering, so analysts rely on data such as voters' race, age and turnout in heavily Democratic or Republican areas. On that basis, Republicans have raised alarms about lower turnout in rural parts of the state with conservative voters and higher turnout in metropolitan areas with liberals.

"There's no sugarcoating it, the Democrats have been working hard," Kemp said while campaigning for Jackson at a Cherokee County diner on Monday morning. "They've been motivated. They outpaced us in early voting. But you know what? This situation is no different than it was in 2018. And if we have a big turnout tomorrow, we are going to win this race."

The early-voting imbalance prompted the University of Virginia-based forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball to move the governor's race on Monday from a toss-up to slightly favouring Democrats, the Georgia Recorder reported. The forecaster found Black voters made up nearly 32% of Georgia's early voters, up from 26% in 2024 and 29% in 2022.

On the campaign trail, President Donald Trump has urged voters to "pretend" he is on the ballot, while voters increasingly blame his policies for the rising cost of living, and his approval rating has hit a record low of 33%, according to the Georgia Recorder. Polling from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution showed Democratic gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms and incumbent Democratic US Senator Jon Ossoff with an edge among likely independent voters.

"The MAGA coalition is still pretty intact," said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University. "But I think it becomes a question of, can you rely on the MAGA base alone to be able to win an election in a year that is going to be hard for Republicans?"

Emory's Bernard Fraga said split-ticket voting, once common in Georgia, is now rare, but he will be watching turnout's magnitude and precincts in Atlanta's Buckhead neighbourhood, where Bottoms was relatively unpopular as mayor and where ticket-splitting persists.

"I think this year the big question is how large the magnitude of that effect will be," he said. "Because it looks like Ossoff's lead is so large that you'd have to have historically super high levels of split-ticket voting for Bottoms to not get over the top." He said Jackson differs from Kemp, who won in 2022 as an incumbent: "Rick Jackson is not a known quantity in the same way for people who would otherwise be drawn to vote for the Democrats."

Alan Abramowitz, a professor emeritus of political science at Emory, said downballot positions could offer a glimpse into the state's future politics. “Watch the secretary of state, lieutenant governor, attorney general,” he said. “Those are the offices that tend to produce candidates for governor, candidates for U.S. Senate.”

RSS

The Daily Edition

The front page in your inbox each weekday morning: the lead, the picks, and why each one earned its place.

Black share of Georgia's early voters by election year

% of Georgia early voters

The 2026 figure was described as "nearly 32%". Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball, via Georgia Recorder

Analysis

Why This Matters

Georgia is one of the midterm battlegrounds where control of the US Senate and a governor's mansion are being decided in the same cycle, so the result will be read well beyond the state.
All four open statewide constitutional offices are currently Republican-held, and the winners will shape how elections are administered and defended in a state that has been central to recent disputes over results.
The balance between early-voting turnout and Election Day turnout, and the size of any split-ticket vote, will be watched as a signal of how the president's standing is affecting Republican candidates.

Background

Georgia has become one of the most competitive states in US national politics, having gone narrowly for both parties in recent presidential cycles. Its elections are run by the secretary of state, a separately elected official, and the state uses ballot marking devices that were tested by county election workers before polling day. The governor's office, the legislature and the statewide constitutional posts have been held by Republicans, but Democrats have made inroads in metro Atlanta and its suburbs, which is why the contest between the parties' turnout operations is closely followed. The state does not register voters by party, which makes early-voting analysis an exercise in inference from geography and demographics rather than a direct reading of party strength.

Key Perspectives

Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State: expects absentee and early voting results to be finalised within an hour of polls closing, as state law requires, and says he wants the count done before midnight as it was in 2024.
Gbemende Johnson, University of Georgia: warns that fast-reporting areas can create a misleading impression of who is ahead, and that voters should consider which regions the results come from and how many votes remain.
Brian Kemp, outgoing governor: says Democrats were motivated and outpaced Republicans in early voting, but that a large Election Day turnout would deliver the race to Republicans, as he argues happened in 2018.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: shifted the governor's race from a toss-up to slightly favouring Democrats, citing an early-voting imbalance including a higher share of Black voters than in 2024 or 2022.
Andra Gillespie, Emory University: says the MAGA coalition remains intact but questions whether it alone can carry Republicans in a difficult year.
Bernard Fraga, Emory University: says the key question is the magnitude of split-ticket voting, and that Ossoff's lead would require historically high levels of ticket-splitting for Bottoms to lose; notes Jackson is less known than Kemp was.
Alan Abramowitz, Emory University: says the secretary of state, lieutenant governor and attorney general races are worth watching because those offices tend to produce future candidates for governor and US Senate.

What to Watch

The first hour after polls close, when absentee and early voting results are due, and whether the full count is complete before midnight as Raffensperger expects.
Whether Election Day turnout in rural, conservative areas closes the early-voting gap the forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball cited in shifting its rating.
Results from Atlanta's Buckhead precincts and the scale of split-ticket voting between the Senate and governor's races, which the Emory analysts identify as the decisive variables.

Sources

Here are five things to watch as Georgia voters head to the polls on Election Day · Georgia Recorder

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedThe governor’s office and the U.S. Senate race are both in the balance.Georgia Recorder: ““Because it looks like Ossoff’s lead is so large that you’d have to have historically super high levels of split-ticket voting for Bottoms to not get over the top.””
SupportedRaffensperger expected early and absentee results to be finalized within an hour of polls closing.Georgia Recorder: “At a Monday press conference, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that he expected the absentee and early voting results to be finalized within an hour of polls closing, as is required by Georgia law.”
SupportedA political scientist warned that early leads can mislead voters.Georgia Recorder: “Early results can also be misleading, said Gbemende Johnson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Georgia.”
SupportedRepublicans hope an Election Day surge can overcome the early-voting lead built by Democrats.Georgia Recorder: “A key question going into Tuesday is whether Republicans can get enough voters to the ballot box on Election Day to overcome that lead.”
SupportedThe election features a nationally watched U.S. Senate race and four open statewide offices.Georgia Recorder: “This year’s ballot is packed with a nationally watched U.S. Senate race and competitive statewide contests as both parties battle for control of four open seats, including the governor’s office.”
SupportedRaffensperger said, “I like to go to bed early, so I want to be done before midnight. We did that in 2024. There’s no reason why we won’t do it here tomorrow.”Georgia Recorder: ““I like to go to bed early, so I want to be done before midnight,” he said. “We did that in 2024. There’s no reason why we won’t do it here tomorrow.””
SupportedKemp, campaigning for Jackson, said Democrats had outpaced Republicans in early voting and predicted Republicans would win with high turnout.Georgia Recorder: ““They’ve been motivated. They outpaced us in early voting. But you know what? This situation is no different than it was in 2018. And if we have a big turnout tomorrow, we are going to win this race.””
SupportedThe forecaster shifted the governor’s race from a toss-up to slightly favoring Democrats, and Black voters were nearly 32% of early voters, compared with 26% in 2024 and 29% in 2022.Georgia Recorder: “An imbalance in early voting turnout inspired the University of Virginia-based election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball to shift the race Monday from a toss-up to slightly favor Democrats. The polling prognosticators found that Black voters made up nearly 32% of Georgia’s early voters, up from 26% in 2024 and 29% in 2022.”
Partly supportedFraga said split-ticket voting, once common in Georgia, is now rare.Georgia Recorder: “Emory University political science professor Bernard Fraga said that although split-ticket voting used to be quite common in Georgia, the majority of voters these days tend to vote strictly along party lines.”
SupportedTrump urged voters to “pretend” he was on the ballot, and his approval rating had hit a record low of 33%.Georgia Recorder: “In visits to Georgia and other states, Trump has urged voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot”
SupportedThe source reports that Ossoff’s lead looked large enough that Bottoms would need historically high split-ticket voting to win.Georgia Recorder: ““Because it looks like Ossoff’s lead is so large that you’d have to have historically super high levels of split-ticket voting for Bottoms to not get over the top.””