The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has won a historic state election in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its support and securing over 44% of the vote, exit polls show. However, the party fell just short of an outright majority, leaving the path to government uncertain. The AfD's lead candidate thanked Elon Musk for his support, while a French minister described the result as a 'serious moment' for Europe.
Germany's far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is celebrating a projected win in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, with exit polls indicating the party won more than 44% of the vote. The result, which would see the AfD become the first far-right party to gain power at a state level since the Second World War, was hailed by party leaders as a "historic outcome" and a "dream result" by AfD co-leader Alice Weidel.
But the party will not know whether it can form a government until the final seat distribution is determined. That depends on whether any of the smaller parties clear the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. The AfD appears to have fallen short of an outright majority, according to the BBC, leaving potential coalition partners or a minority government as the only routes to power.
The AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt thanked Elon Musk for his support and said he looked forward to further "strong" cooperation with the billionaire. Musk has previously expressed sympathy for the AfD on social media.
France's Europe minister warned that the result was a "serious moment" for Europe. "We cannot forget our history," the minister said, in a statement reported by The Guardian.
Weidel attributed the party's success to a surge in turnout from previous non-voters, calling it a triumph for democracy. The result more than doubles the AfD's previous support in the region, according to The Guardian. The party's performance has been closely watched as a bellwether for national politics, with conservative CDU leader Friedrich Merz expected to respond to the outcome.
Political analysts note that even if the AfD cannot govern alone, the result marks a significant shift in Germany's political landscape, with the far-right now holding its strongest position in any state parliament since the Nazi era.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The AfD's projected win in Saxony-Anhalt is a watershed moment for post-war Germany, marking the first time a far-right party could lead a state government since the 1940s.
- The result will intensify debate over immigration, energy policy, and Germany's relationship with the European Union ahead of the 2027 federal election.
- A potential AfD-led state government could embolden far-right movements across Europe, while also testing the country's democratic institutions and coalition norms.
Background
Saxony-Anhalt, in eastern Germany, has been a stronghold for the AfD in recent years, reflecting a broader east-west political divide in the country. The party has capitalised on voter discontent over migration, economic stagnation, and the energy transition. Previous state elections in 2021 saw the AfD finish second with around 20% of the vote. The current result represents a dramatic surge, more than doubling that support. All mainstream parties have ruled out coalition with the AfD, leaving the CDU, SPD, and others to consider alternative arrangements.
Key Perspectives
AfD (Alice Weidel, leadership): Celebrate the result as a "historic" and "dream" outcome, arguing it reflects the will of voters who felt ignored by establishment parties. The party frames its success as a democratic victory and points to new voters as evidence of a mandate.
French government: Warns that the election is a "serious moment", invoking historical memory of Nazi rule. France's Europe minister stressed that Europe cannot forget its history, signalling concern about the rise of far-right nationalism within the EU.
Mainstream German parties (CDU, SPD, Greens): Face a difficult choice — either accept a minority AfD government or attempt to form a coalition without the far-right, which may require cooperation with smaller parties that could also struggle to reach the 5% threshold. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is expected to respond publicly.
What to Watch
- Final seat count and whether any smaller party (e.g., Free Voters, BSW) crosses the 5% threshold, which could allow the AfD to form a coalition or force a minority government.
- Reaction from CDU leader Friedrich Merz and whether he shifts his party's position on cooperation with the AfD.
- EU and international responses, including any formal statements from Brussels or Berlin, and whether the AfD's victory prompts similar electoral gains in other German states later this year.