Precious metals climbed sharply and the dollar weakened as vote counting continued in the US midterm elections, with Democrats projected to have won control of the House and several governors' offices turning blue. Spot gold was 2.64% higher at $4,031.98 an ounce by 3:37 a.m. ET, while spot silver jumped 4.17% to $51.8495 an ounce, according to CNBC.
Front-month gold futures added 2.53% to trade at $4,039.90, and silver futures were up 4.21% at $51.85. Platinum rose 2.82% to $1,455.96 and palladium was 3.8% higher at $969.33.
As the results came in, US stock futures broadly fell, Treasury yields moved lower, oil prices were marginally higher and the dollar index shed around 0.3%.
Both metals saw record-breaking rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135% respectively as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, but the momentum has come undone this year. Rising inflation, surging bond yields and hawkish central banks have removed support, leaving gold down more than 7% year to date and silver down almost 28%. Spot gold rose on Monday as oil prices retreated and is now on course for a weekly rise of around 3.7%.
Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX, said in a note that if the Democrats won dual congressional control, gold should find support as rates and the dollar would likely come under pressure. She said it would result in "fiscal brinkmanship, institutional friction, both leading to uncertainty", adding that "The Iran war and a weaker dollar would compete with [the] impact of [a] hawkish Fed." She also said: "Less fiscal stimulus argues for lower long yields and a softer dollar, offset by debt-limit premia in bills and a Fed leaning towards another hike."
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said in a note that the recovery remains fragile. "The challenge for precious metals is that geopolitical uncertainty is not automatically translating into safe-haven demand when investors are also concerned about restrictive monetary policy," she said. "They also face the risk of liquidation during sharp equity selloffs, as investors sell profitable or liquid positions to raise cash."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The reaction shows how quickly currency and metals markets are repricing around the projected US election outcome, which matters to anyone holding gold, silver or dollar-exposed assets.
- A weaker dollar and lower yields, if they persist, would ease pressure on metals that have been weighed down all year by restrictive monetary policy.
- Attention now turns to the remaining vote counts and to whether the projected House result is matched in other races, since the analysts' scenarios describe dual congressional control rather than the House alone.
Background
Gold and silver are traditionally held as stores of value and tend to attract buyers when investors are worried about inflation, currency weakness or political instability, though they can also be sold off when holders need cash. Both metals had an exceptional 2025 before turning lower this year as inflation, bond yields and central bank tightening reduced their appeal. The dollar's direction is a key input, since the metals are priced in the US currency.
Key Perspectives
Rhona O'Connell, StoneX: says that if Democrats won dual congressional control, gold should find support as rates and the dollar would likely come under pressure, producing what she described as fiscal brinkmanship and institutional friction leading to uncertainty, with the Iran war and a weaker dollar competing against a hawkish Fed.
Daniela Hathorn, Capital.com: says the recovery remains fragile, because geopolitical uncertainty is not automatically translating into safe-haven demand while investors are also concerned about restrictive monetary policy, and metals face the risk of liquidation during sharp equity selloffs.
What to Watch
- The final congressional results and whether the Senate outcome matches the projected House win, the condition underpinning O'Connell's scenario.
- The dollar index and Treasury yields over the coming sessions, both cited as the channel through which election outcomes feed into metals prices.
- Whether gold holds its weekly gain of around 3.7% or gives it back, which would speak to Hathorn's warning about a fragile recovery.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedThe headline says gold and silver jumped and the dollar slipped as Democrats were projected to win House control.US Top News and Analysis: “The moves came as vote counting continued in the midterms, with the Democrats projected to have won control of the House”
- SupportedSpot gold rose 2.64% to $4,031.98 an ounce.US Top News and Analysis: “Spot gold was 2.64% higher at $4,031.98 an ounce by 3:37 a.m. ET”
- SupportedSpot silver gained 4.17%.US Top News and Analysis: “while spot silver jumped 4.17% to trade at $51.8495 per ounce.”
- SupportedDemocrats were projected to have won House control while vote counting continued.US Top News and Analysis: “The moves came as vote counting continued in the midterms, with the Democrats projected to have won control of the House”
- SupportedSeveral governors' offices were turning blue.US Top News and Analysis: “and multiple governors' offices also turning blue.”
- SupportedRhona O'Connell said gold should find support and rates and the dollar would likely come under pressure if Democrats won dual congressional control.US Top News and Analysis: “Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX, said in a note on Tuesday that if the Democrats won dual Congressional control, gold should find support as rates and the dollar would likely come under pressure.”
- SupportedO'Connell said the result would mean “fiscal brinkmanship, institutional friction, both leading to uncertainty”.US Top News and Analysis: “She said it would result in "fiscal brinkmanship, institutional friction, both leading to uncertainty,"”
- Partly supportedO'Connell said: “The Iran war and a weaker dollar would compete with [the] impact of [a] hawkish Fed.”US Top News and Analysis: “adding that "the Iran war and a weaker dollar would compete with [the] impact of [a] hawkish Fed."”
- SupportedO'Connell said: “Less fiscal stimulus argues for lower long yields and a softer dollar, offset by debt-limit premia in bills and a Fed leaning towards another hike.”US Top News and Analysis: “"Less fiscal stimulus argues for lower long yields and a softer dollar, offset by debt-limit premia in bills and a Fed leaning towards another hike," she said.”
- SupportedDaniela Hathorn said in a note that the recovery remained fragile.US Top News and Analysis: “Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said in a Tuesday note that the recovery remains fragile.”
- SupportedHathorn said geopolitical uncertainty was not automatically translating into safe-haven demand when investors were also concerned about restrictive monetary policy.US Top News and Analysis: “"The challenge for precious metals is that geopolitical uncertainty is not automatically translating into safe-haven demand when investors are also concerned about restrictive monetary policy," she said.”
- SupportedHathorn said precious metals faced liquidation risk during sharp equity selloffs as investors sold profitable or liquid positions to raise cash.US Top News and Analysis: “"They also face the risk of liquidation during sharp equity selloffs, as investors sell profitable or liquid positions to raise cash."”
