Guinea-Bissau voters approve new constitution expanding presidential powers, opposition boycotts

The new constitution alters the balance of power in Guinea-Bissau's semi-presidential system, strengthening the presidency at the expense of the prime minister. The reforms allow the president to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, create or abolish ministries, and dissolve parliament in the event of a grave political crisis.

Previously, the legislature appointed a prime minister from the parliamentary majority, who then formed a cabinet — an arrangement the ruling military authorities said contributed to political instability. The transitional president, Gen Horta N'Tam, whose military government proposed the changes, has called the vote a step toward stability.

However, the main opposition party boycotted Sunday's referendum, arguing that the process lacked adequate political and institutional safeguards and threatened the country's transition back to democracy. Guinea-Bissau, one of the poorest countries in the world, has experienced at least nine attempted and successful coups since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. The United Nations has described the country as a "narco-state," noting its coastline of many uninhabited islands that make it ideal for drug traffickers.

The referendum comes ahead of general elections later this year. The new constitution also sets a five-year presidential term, though further details of term limits — if any — were not immediately clear from the provisional results.

Why This Matters

The constitutional changes concentrate power in the presidency, potentially undermining the checks and balances that are critical for democratic governance in a country with a long history of coups.
The opposition boycott and the military's role in organising the vote raise concerns about the legitimacy of the transition process and could deepen political instability.
As a key transit point for cocaine trafficking, political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau has regional security implications for West Africa and Europe.

Background

Guinea-Bissau has been plagued by political instability since independence in 1974, with at least nine attempted or successful coups. The most recent took place in November 2025, when the military seized power after a disputed election. The country's weak institutions and porous coastline have made it a hub for drug traffickers, earning it the UN label of "narco-state." The previous semi-presidential system, in which the prime minister was appointed by the parliamentary majority, was often blamed for gridlock and frequent government collapses.

Key Perspectives

[Military Government]: Argues that the old system contributed to chronic instability and that the new constitution gives the president the authority needed to govern effectively. They see the referendum as a popular mandate for reform. [Main Opposition Party]: Contends that the referendum lacked sufficient safeguards and was organised by an illegitimate military government, making it a threat to the democratic transition. Their boycott signifies a rejection of the process. [Critics/Skeptics]: International observers and analysts may worry that the expanded presidential powers could entrench authoritarian rule, especially given the military's role. The high turnout and 70% approval do little to address concerns about the fairness of the vote under military supervision.

What to Watch

The upcoming general elections later this year — whether they will be held as scheduled, and whether the opposition will participate.
The international community's response, particularly from the African Union, ECOWAS, and the UN, including any statements on the legitimacy of the new constitution.
Potential internal tensions within the military government and between the presidency and the opposition as the new constitutional framework takes effect.

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