Holiday fares projected to hit a 10-year high; Black Friday hotel deals may only match last year’s prices

Hopper's data shows Thanksgiving fares are up 31% from 2025 and Christmas fares are up 23%, driven by elevated jet fuel prices that are the second-largest cost for most carriers after labour. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said in July that he expected the carrier to pass close to 100% of higher fuel costs on to customers in the third quarter, and its revenue per seat mile rose 15%. On an earnings call, Bastian noted that the market "has accepted these price points" and expressed hope that fuel would recede next year at some point. US airfares were up 22.4% in September from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as airlines chose higher fares over fuller planes. Other carriers, including American, United and Southwest, have cut less profitable routes, tightening supply as demand peaks.

Hotel prices are diverging: Thanksgiving rates are running about $170 a night, similar to 2025, while Christmas rates average $197 a night, up 18% from a year ago. Hopper expects rates to rise and availability to fall as the holidays approach, changing the calculus for any sale.

DaShawna Carpenter, owner of Skyy Travel Mavens, said Black Friday has lost some punch in travel. "Black Friday is definitely becoming weaker," she said. "While I think you can genuinely find legitimate savings, I have found that prices are sometimes inflated to appear cheaper during the sale periods. So it's more of a marketing campaign than anything, especially for travel." She said Travel Tuesday tends to offer the best deals, but most are bundled into packages rather than standalone airfares. Even when discounts apply to airfare, she noted, "some airlines apply discounts to airfare but leave fuel pricing, taxes, and other fees the same."

Carpenter advised travellers to know a normal fare before judging a discount and to compare against the regular price, not the crossed-out one. She said the discount-day marketing campaigns have helped fill a slow booking window in November and December. "If you don't buy on any of these marketed 'discount days,' there will definitely be other chances to catch a discount," she said. Hopper had advised booking holiday flights and hotels before Halloween and expects prices to keep rising as dates approach, making waiting for a sale counterproductive.