The International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver a landmark judgment this week on whether Myanmar committed genocide against its Rohingya minority, in what could be one of the most significant moments in international law since World War II. The ruling, set for Thursday, comes nearly a decade after a military campaign forced hundreds of thousands of Muslim Rohingya to flee across the border into Bangladesh.
The case was brought by The Gambia, a Muslim-majority state, which accuses Myanmar of breaching the 1948 UN Genocide Convention through its repression of the Rohingya. A key challenge for the court has been establishing genocidal intent. Myanmar has denied carrying out genocide and claims its actions targeted a military uprising from insurgents.
The ICJ has never before found a state responsible for genocide, making this a potential historic first. The judgment will also serve as a bellwether for a separate high-profile case brought by South Africa against Israel over its Gaza campaign. Antonia Mulvey, founder of Legal Action Worldwide, which represents hundreds of Rohingya survivors, said she was "cautiously optimistic" the court would hold Myanmar fully accountable.
In January, the ICJ held closed-door sessions to hear directly from Rohingya survivors. According to Legal Action Worldwide, one witness said her child was taken from her arms, stabbed and thrown into a fire, while another described seeing piles of bodies in a mass grave. Mulvey said government actions showed patterns of conduct that proved clear attempts to destroy the group.
A ruling that Myanmar committed genocide would add international pressure on Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s leader. He headed the military during the 2016-2017 attacks before overthrowing the elected government in a 2021 coup, triggering a civil war. He is separately being investigated by the International Criminal Court on allegations of crimes against humanity.
The United States has already designated the Rohingya crisis a genocide, based on a decision by the Biden administration. Washington has been on the offensive against international human rights bodies, including sanctioning the ICC. Trump’s UN ambassador, Mike Waltz, warned that the ICJ must not be allowed to establish a standard for genocide that could be used against allied soldiers, a statement relevant for Israeli troops. The court does not have the means to enforce its decisions, and the UN Security Council could give them strength, although divisions, especially between the US and China, make this unlikely.
More than one million Rohingya remain in Bangladesh, and fewer than 600,000 are estimated to remain in Myanmar. A displaced Rohingya living inside Myanmar said he hoped the ruling would "help end decades of persecution and discrimination".
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The verdict will set a critical precedent for state responsibility in genocide, a landmark in 21st-century international law.
- Provides a chance for the international community to address what the UN calls a long-standing failure to prevent atrocities against the Rohingya.
- The ruling will heavily influence the legal trajectory of the separate, politically charged genocide case against Israel brought by South Africa.
Background
The Rohingya are a Muslim minority in Myanmar who have faced systemic discrimination, including being stripped of citizenship. In summer 2017, a Rohingya militant attack prompted massive "clearance operations" by the Myanmar military, forcing hundreds of thousands into neighbouring Bangladesh amidst widespread reports of massacres, rape, and the burning of villages. The Gambia filed the genocide case at the ICJ shortly after the crackdown. The military seized full power in a 2021 coup, leading to a devastating civil war.
Key Perspectives
Yanghee Lee, former UN rights investigator: Called the ruling historic and a crucial opportunity for the international community to finally secure justice for Rohingya survivors.
Antonia Mulvey, Legal Action Worldwide: Expressed cautious optimism, arguing that systematic patterns of violence, particularly sexual violence, prove clear intent to destroy the Rohingya group.
Dawda Jallow, Gambian justice minister: Stated the case is about real people and real suffering, not esoteric issues of international law.
Myanmar's government (junta): Denies the genocide allegations, insisting its military campaign was a legitimate response to an insurgent uprising.
Mike Waltz, incoming US UN ambassador: Warned the ICJ against setting a genocide standard that could be applied to allied soldiers.
What to Watch
- How the court interprets genocidal intent, specifically whether it recognises sexual violence as a form of genocide.
- The immediate diplomatic reaction from Min Aung Hlaing's junta and the response from its key allies, China and Russia.
- The impact of the ruling on the separate ICJ genocide case against Israel, providing a legal bellwether for judges and litigants.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
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- SupportedAntonia Mulvey said she was “cautiously optimistic” the court would hold Myanmar fully accountable.World news | The Guardian: “Antonia Mulvey, the founder of Legal Action Worldwide (Law), a group that represents hundreds of Rohingya survivors, said she was “cautiously optimistic” the court would hold Myanmar fully accountable.”
- SupportedA displaced Rohingya living inside Myanmar hoped the judgment would “help end decades of persecution and discrimination”.World news | The Guardian: “A displaced Rohingya living inside Myanmar told the Guardian he hoped the judgment would “help end decades of persecution and discrimination”.”
- SupportedMike Waltz warned that the ICJ “must not be allowed” to establish a genocide standard that could be used against allied soldiers.World news | The Guardian: “However, Trump’s UN ambassador, Mike Waltz, warned that the ICJ “must not be allowed” to establish a standard for genocide that could be used against “allied soldiers”, a statement that will be relevant for Israeli troops.”
- SupportedThe ICJ will rule on whether Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya.World news | The Guardian: “The world’s top court will deliver a judgment this week on whether Myanmar committed genocide against its Rohingya minority”
- SupportedThe judgment is set for Thursday, nearly a decade after a military campaign forced hundreds of thousands of Muslim Rohingya to flee across the border into Bangladesh.World news | The Guardian: “Nearly a decade after a military campaign forced hundreds of thousands of Muslim Rohingya to flee across the border, the ICJ in The Hague will deliver its judgment on Thursday morning.”
- SupportedThe judgment could be one of the most significant moments in international law since World War II.World news | The Guardian: “The closely watched judgment could become one of the most significant moments in international law since the end of the second world war.”
- SupportedThe Gambia accuses Myanmar of breaching the 1948 UN Genocide Convention through repression of the Rohingya.World news | The Guardian: “ICJ judges have spent seven years weighing accusations by the Gambia, a Muslim-majority state, that Myanmar’s repression of the Rohingya breached the 1948 UN genocide convention.”
- Partly supportedEstablishing genocidal intent has been a key challenge for the court in this case.World news | The Guardian: “A key issue in previous cases has been how to prove “intent” in a crime defined as acts committed with the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part” a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”
- SupportedThe ICJ has never before found a state responsible for genocide.World news | The Guardian: “The international court of justice (ICJ) has never found a state responsible for genocide, a crime defined after the Nazi-led Holocaust.”
- SupportedAccording to Legal Action Worldwide, a witness said her child was taken from her arms, stabbed and thrown into a fire, and another described seeing piles of bodies in a mass grave.World news | The Guardian: “One witness said her child was taken from her arms, stabbed and thrown into a fire, according to Law, while another described seeing piles of bodies in a mass grave.”
- SupportedMyanmar denies carrying out genocide and says its actions targeted a military uprising from insurgents.World news | The Guardian: “Myanmar, which has denied carrying out a genocide, claims its actions targeted a military uprising from insurgents.”
- Partly supportedThe United States has already designated the Rohingya crisis a genocide, based on a Biden administration decision.World news | The Guardian: “Washington technically already considers the Rohingya crisis to be a genocide, based on a decision by the Biden administration.”