Investigation finds Russian satellites observed Houthi-targeted areas

Nawaf Obaid, founder of AURORAH, told Al Jazeera the firm reconstructed Russia's military reconnaissance architecture. Identified satellites included Russia's Bars-M military mapping satellites, Persona optical reconnaissance satellites, Lotos-S1 electronic intelligence satellites, Pion-NKS maritime reconnaissance systems, and Kondor-FKA radar-imaging satellites. Obaid highlighted the sequencing and integration of these complementary intelligence capabilities, and confirmed to Al Jazeera that Russian military geospatial and signals intelligence has supported the Iranian-led intelligence architecture assisting Houthi operations. He said the September attacks on the East-West pipeline pumping stations illustrated the sophistication of the targeting problem.

Brussels-based analyst Elijah Magnier said the findings do not necessarily show the whole picture. He said inability to intercept an intelligence transmission does not establish who had access to the information or whether Russia deliberately shared it, and outlined possible scenarios including Iran obtaining imagery through commercial channels or an intermediary supplying information. Obaid said it is essential to distinguish the wider intelligence relationship from proof that a specific satellite supplied targeting data for an individual strike, which requires additional corroboration.

Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly told reporters the Houthis receive intelligence from Russia and China, and that the kingdom discusses these matters regularly with both countries. International Crisis Group analyst Ahmed Nagi said that, taken together, developments point to a broader expansion of Russian engagement with the group, noting that Moscow has taken positions at the UN Security Council opposing stronger international action against the Houthis.

The Houthis have attacked locations across Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. On Friday, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed strikes on the Ras Tanura refinery, King Khalid International airport and other sites. A strike on the Riyadh airport earlier this month killed at least 12 people and injured 300, according to Saudi officials. The Saudi-led coalition says it has intercepted missiles and destroyed Houthi launchers and tunnels. Yemen’s government forces launched Operation Yemen Dawn, a counteroffensive aimed at recapturing territory held by the Houthis.

Analysts questioned the effectiveness of the Saudi strategy. Magnier told Al Jazeera that air power alone cannot succeed without motivated ground forces. Nagi said the Saudi-backed Yemeni government remains fractured. Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said the Houthis have developed their capabilities from seized arsenals and Iranian support, learning from Iranian strategists and militias in and across Iraq, while Saudi Arabia has struggled to effectively deploy its advanced weaponry against a guerrilla force.