Some investors are lowering their expectations for Anthropic's upcoming IPO, with one calling $1.5 trillion a stretch following a sharp tech sell-off on Wall Street this week.
The artificial intelligence company had been looking toward a $2 trillion valuation until recently, but stakeholders told CNBC that even $1.5 trillion is now in doubt. One investor, who asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak about the matter, described that figure as a stretch. An investor said a target of $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion is more likely, depending on market conditions.
The changing sentiment came alongside growing concerns about the outsized spending by AI companies and a sharp post-midterm slump in the market. The Nasdaq plummeted more than 5% on Thursday, its steepest drop in 19 months, reflecting fears that Democrats' new power in Washington and a nationwide rebuke of AI will slow the buildout of data centers. Bearishness on AI trade was already rising before the election, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst month in October since March 2025, led by declines in chipmakers and neoclouds.
Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, said investors will expect the IPO to be priced at least at the low end of previous expectations. 'The market really needs this IPO to go well and the bankers on the deal surely understand that,' Luria said. 'The best way to set Anthropic up for success is to price the deal well.'
Anthropic declined to comment. The company is set to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT and is expected to kick off its roadshow next week, with an IPO debut anticipated in weeks. Last month, the company was reportedly seeking a valuation as high as $2 trillion. As of May, it was privately valued at $965 billion.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome of Anthropic's IPO could signal the market's appetite for AI company valuations amid tech sell-offs and regulatory uncertainty.
- Investors are reassessing the risk of high spending by AI firms, with political backlash threatening data center expansion.
- A lower valuation could ripple through the sector, affecting other AI companies planning to go public.
Background
Anthropic is an artificial intelligence company that was privately valued at $965 billion as of May, and was reported to seek a valuation as high as $2 trillion in its IPO. The offering, expected on the Nasdaq under ticker ANT, comes at a time of market volatility and political shifts that could reshape the AI investment landscape.
Key Perspectives
Some investors: say the $1.5 trillion valuation is too high and consider $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion more likely, though they caution that could change with market conditions.
Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson: expects the IPO to be priced at the low end of previous expectations and says pricing the deal well is crucial for success.
What to Watch
- The investor roadshow beginning next week will provide early clues on demand for the stock.
- Market conditions in the weeks ahead, especially after the Nasdaq's sharp decline, will influence final pricing.
- Any further political or regulatory moves targeting AI could affect investor sentiment.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedInvestors doubt Anthropic can reach a $1.5 trillion valuation in its IPO.Tech: “stakeholders told CNBC that even $1.5 trillion is now in doubt”
- SupportedA tech sell-off has dampened expectations for Anthropic’s market debut.Tech: “Following tech's selloff on Wall Street this week, some investors are lowering their expectations for Anthropic.”
- SupportedSome investors are lowering their expectations, with one calling $1.5 trillion a stretch after this week’s Wall Street sell-off.Tech: “Following tech's selloff on Wall Street this week, some investors are lowering their expectations for Anthropic. The artificial intelligence company had been looking toward a $2 trillion valuation in its IPO up until recently, but stakeholders told CNBC that even $1.5 trillion is now in doubt, with one investor calling that number a "stretch."”
- SupportedAnthropic had been looking toward a $2 trillion IPO valuation until recently.Tech: “The artificial intelligence company had been looking toward a $2 trillion valuation in its IPO up until recently”
- Partly supportedThe investor who called $1.5 trillion a stretch asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak about the matter.Tech: “with one investor calling that number a "stretch." [...] The investors asked not to be named because they're not authorized to speak about the matter.”
- SupportedAn investor said $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion was a more likely target, depending on market conditions.Tech: “With the latest market turmoil, one investor said $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion is a more likely valuation target, although that could change with market conditions.”
- SupportedThe Nasdaq fell more than 5% on Thursday, its steepest drop in 19 months.Tech: “The Nasdaq plummeted more than 5% on Thursday, its steepest drop in 19 months”
- SupportedThe source says the drop reflected fears that Democrats’ new power in Washington and a nationwide rebuke of AI would slow data-centre construction.Tech: “reflecting fears that Democrats' newfound power in Washington, D.C., and a nationwide rebuke of AI will lead to a slowdown in the buildout of data centers.”
- SupportedThe Nasdaq had its worst October since March 2025, led by declines in chipmakers and neoclouds.Tech: “The Nasdaq suffered its worst month in October since March 2025, led by declines in chipmakers and neoclouds.”
- SupportedGil Luria said investors would expect the IPO to be priced at least at the low end of previous expectations.Tech: “Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC that, "Investors will expect the IPO to be priced at least at the low end of previous expectations."”
- SupportedLuria said, “The market really needs this IPO to go well and the bankers on the deal surely understand that.”Tech: “"The market really needs this IPO to go well and the bankers on the deal surely understand that," Luria said.”
- SupportedLuria said, “The best way to set Anthropic up for success is to price the deal well.”Tech: “"The best way to set Anthropic up for success is to price the deal well."”
