Tens of thousands of Israeli citizens living abroad, including hundreds from Australia, are flying home for Tuesday's election, the first since the October 7 attacks and one that polls indicate could test Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power.
The US-based AID Coalition, a non-partisan group, estimates that up to 67,000 voters are returning to Israel for its Fly&Vote initiative, about half of them from the United States and the rest from Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Ballots can only be cast in person on election day, with exceptions for serving soldiers and diplomats. Likud tried to block the initiative in September with an appeal to the elections committee, but withdrew after reaching an agreement.
Among those travelling is Anat Dror, who has lived in Melbourne for almost five years and recently became an Australian citizen. "The sentiment for us is that right now, voting is absolutely essential," she told the ABC. "This is our motherland and our motherland needs us right now." She estimated that between 500 and 1,000 Israeli citizens from Australia are making the journey. "I don't trust any of them," she said. "What I'm counting on isn't any one individual. I'm counting on the change bloc to have the ability to oversee differences, oversee personal gain for the sake of actually building a coalition that is diverse."
Guy Marom, a voter from Sydney who moved to Australia with his family during the pandemic, said one of the "change" parties would get his vote. He said Netanyahu was maybe not the single cause of division amongst Israelis, but he was contributing to it.
The vote is the first general election since Hamas-led gunmen killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and took more than 250 hostage. Israeli television channels Channel 12 and Channel 13 reported on Thursday that Eisenkot's Yashar party was a few seats ahead of Likud, though both will need complicated coalition negotiations to secure the 61 seats needed to govern.
The campaign has reopened founding fault lines in Israeli politics, from accountability for the attacks to the country's standing in the world. Netanyahu has resisted a state commission of inquiry, and his office called a Haaretz report that the UAE ruler warned him before the attack "an absolute lie". Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son was killed fighting in Gaza, campaigns on returning Israel to what he calls "the community of nations", arguing the country has become isolated.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Tuesday's vote is the first Israeli election since the October 7, 2023 attacks, and it is widely read as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership and handling of the deadliest day in the country's history.
- The outcome will shape Israel's next government at a time when it is still fighting Hamas, has struck Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, and faces deepening international isolation.
- The scale of the expat return, with voters sacrificing work days and paying for expensive tickets, shows how consequential the election is for Israelis abroad as well as at home.
Background
Israel's Declaration of Independence was signed in haste in 1948 and promised a constitution that was never adopted, leaving the role of religion and the limits of law unresolved. Those questions erupted in 2023 when Netanyahu, back in power at the head of the most right-wing government in Israel's history, moved to curb the Supreme Court's powers. Hundreds of thousands protested for 39 consecutive Saturdays; the 40th demonstration, planned for October 7, 2023, never happened because of the Hamas-led attack.
Netanyahu has held the premiership across three spells for nearly two decades, surpassing David Ben-Gurion's record in 2019. He has resisted a state inquiry into the attacks, despite the precedent of the Yom Kippur war, when a commission's work was followed by the resignation of prime minister Golda Meir. His challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, is a former military chief whose son was killed fighting in Gaza, and he leads the new Yashar party.
Key Perspectives
Netanyahu's supporters: accept he bears some responsibility for the October 7 attack, but argue he should be judged on what came after, including the war against Hamas and the blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran.
Netanyahu's opponents: say he is afraid of what a state commission of inquiry would find.
Tal Schneider, Times of Israel political correspondent: says Netanyahu has convinced some people that "he came to his senses on 8 October", though she says she is not convinced.
Anat Dror, Israeli voter from Melbourne: says she trusts none of the politicians and is counting on the "change" bloc to set aside differences and personal gain to build a diverse coalition.
Guy Marom, Israeli voter from Sydney: says Netanyahu is not the single cause of the country's division, but he is contributing to it.
What to Watch
- The result on Tuesday: whether Yashar converts its narrow poll lead into the largest party in the Knesset.
- The coalition arithmetic: whether the anti-Netanyahu parties can assemble the 61 seats needed to form a government.
- Whether a new government establishes the state commission of inquiry into October 7 that families of the victims have demanded.