The authors designed a conditional flow-matching generator that produces diverse ensemble members around a shared deterministic prediction of storm-scale structure, treating local growth, decay and initiation as stochastic residuals.
Joint deterministic-generative model extends reliable extreme-precipitation nowcasting to six hours
MW-Nowcast achieves detection skill at 6 h previously limited to 3 h for leading methods, across the United States, Europe and China.
Big Tech
Ning Wang · Zuliang Fang · Weixin Jin · Zhongjian Lv · Shuang Qin · Pengcheng Zhao · +16 more
Microsoft Corporation · City University of Hong Kong · University of Cambridge
Research Digest··3 min read
The authors present MW-Nowcast, a six-hour ensemble radar nowcasting model that jointly learns a deterministic predictor for organized precipitation structure and a generative flow-matching model for local residuals.
Why this paper
From Microsoft Corporation and 2 others
In one line
A radar nowcasting model extends skilful extreme precipitation forecasts to 6 hours by separating predictable storm structure from uncertain local details.
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