Joseph Kabila returns to rebel roots, vowing to oust president he is widely believed to have helped bring to power

Kabila's appointment as FRN leader earlier this month confirmed long-standing suspicions in Congo that he was working with the M23, a group that last year seized much of eastern DR Congo, including the key cities of Goma and Bukavu. The announcement sent shockwaves through the vast, mineral-rich nation, two-thirds the size of western Europe.

Policy analyst Henry-Pacifique Mayala told the BBC that Kabila, facing a death sentence after being convicted in absentia of treason and under US sanctions for alleged support of the M23, had been left with few options. “He actually was left with no other choice,” Mayala said. “I'm not sure that he is making this huge leap in the dark without having received considerable assurance,” he added, suggesting the M23’s military strength could give Kabila leverage in future negotiations with the government.

Kabila likened Tshisekedi to Mobutu Sese Seko. “You have a tyrant who wants to impose and dictate what he thinks is right and not necessarily follow the constitution, which is the supreme law of the land,” he told the research group Conspiracy Trackers Great Lakes. He accused the government of ending the moratorium introduced during his presidency and using the death penalty to intimidate civilians, politicians and members of the military. “This is personal,” he said. Kabila invoked Section 64 of Congo’s constitution, which calls on citizens to resist anyone who exercises power in violation of constitutional provisions. Tshisekedi is widely rumoured to be planning constitutional changes to allow a third term, with the opposition C64 coalition, named after the same constitutional clause, campaigning against such a move.

The C64 coalition, however, this week refused to back Kabila’s rebellion, arguing that Congo’s multiple security crises cannot be resolved by military means alone. Instead, it plans to seek direct talks with both Tshisekedi and Kabila for a “genuine and inclusive national dialogue”.

Richard Moncrieff, a Great Lakes analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Tshisekedi retained substantial advantages. “Tshisekedi has strong American backing. He has a lot of money. And he generally controls the political system and, as far as we can see, the military system,” Moncrieff said.

In his first public reaction to Kabila’s new role, Tshisekedi was damning. “In my view, it's simply proof that he has never loved this country, and even less its inhabitants,” he said last week.

The former allies became rivals in December 2020, when Tshisekedi moved to break Kabila's parliamentary dominance. Kabila went into self-imposed exile in South Africa. He returned to DR Congo in 2025 and appeared in rebel-held Goma. In September 2025 a military court sentenced him to death in absentia on charges including treason and financing violence in eastern Congo; at the time, he rejected the accusations.

The announcement also puts Kabila’s relationship with Rwanda in focus. Rwanda has long been accused of backing the M23, a charge it denies despite what the BBC describes as overwhelming evidence. Alex Adams, Africa programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, described the alignment as one of convenience. “Kabila wants to recover political influence nationally, while Kagame is primarily concerned with Rwanda's security and strategic position in eastern Congo. This is an alignment of convenience rather than a partnership built on deep trust,” he said.

Policy analyst Mayala said Kabila's involvement could help Rwanda counter accusations of interference. “This is a former president. It's finally a Congolese rebellion,” he said.

International security analyst Ovigwe Eguegu argued that neither side offers credible economic transformation. “It looks like the Congolese people are going to lose either way, because neither of these two sides present a credible economic transformation plan for both the eastern Congo and the entirety of the country,” Eguegu said.