Joyce talks down One Nation’s Victorian chances as state leader claims party will govern

Senior recruit shifts focus to NSW election while Warren Pickering insists party will govern

By LineZotpaper

Published5 November 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources2 outlets

A split has emerged in One Nation over expectations for the Victorian state election, with senior recruit Barnaby Joyce publicly downplaying the party’s chances while Victorian leader Warren Pickering claims the party will govern in its own right.

Barnaby Joyce told this masthead that those who wish to disparage One Nation want Victoria to be the litmus test of how the party is going, but said NSW would be the test. “The reality is [Victorian] Labor has been atrocious,” Joyce said, adding that Labor preferences were likely to swing towards the Liberals and be of great assistance to them. He said that in many instances who comes second determines who comes first, and that this was not a reflection of how One Nation was going nationally.

Warren Pickering offered a starkly different message, telling reporters this week the party is not engaging in speculation about preferences. "One Nation is here to win," he said. "We will get this done, whatever the disposition of the parliament."

Veteran election analyst Antony Green provided context for the split, predicting One Nation would win a maximum of about half a dozen lower house seats. Green said the party’s primary vote had drifted into the low 20s. He suggested One Nation would probably finish second in many rural and regional seats but fail to win because Labor preferences would help elect a Coalition candidate, likely a National. One Nation is still likely to win a swag of upper house seats, giving it leverage to drag any Coalition government to the right.

Pickering failed to cite the cash rate in a media interview and stood by a candidate who promoted the appearance of a member of a group promoting conspiracy theories about the Port Arthur massacre and the September 11 attacks. Candidate Mark Nicholson claimed a One Nation government would jail former premiers Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan by Christmas. Pickering claimed Nicholson was taken out of context.

Joyce’s assessment could help avoid embarrassment. The split reflects nervousness in the party’s federal ranks about a poor Victorian showing. The Victorian election, along with March’s NSW poll, will help shape expectations for One Nation’s prospects at a federal election due by mid 2028. In recent weeks, NSW Premier Chris Minns has cast One Nation, rather than the ailing state Coalition opposition, as his main rival.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

The Victorian election will test whether One Nation can convert polling into seats or remains constrained by the preference system.
The result sets the strategic stage for the March NSW election, which the party views as its true national benchmark.
The public split between Joyce and Pickering reveals internal tensions over the party's direction and messaging.

Background

One Nation is contesting the Victorian state election, with former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce as a prominent federal recruit. The outcome will shape expectations for the party's performance in the NSW election in March and a federal election due by mid 2028. The article says the split reflects nervousness in One Nation's federal ranks about a poor Victorian showing.

Key Perspectives

Barnaby Joyce: Argues the Victorian result is not a true test of the party's national strength, framing the NSW election as the real benchmark. He emphasises that preference mechanics, rather than raw primary votes, will decide most seats. Warren Pickering: Rejects speculation about preferences and insists the party is campaigning to win outright government, portraying any downbeat expectations as irrelevant. Antony Green: Predicts One Nation will win at most about half a dozen lower house seats due to the way Labor preferences flow to the Coalition, but will likely secure a significant number of upper house seats.

What to Watch

The Victorian seat count, particularly whether Green's projection of a maximum six lower house seats is accurate.
The NSW election campaign for signs of One Nation's strength, as Premier Chris Minns treats them as the main threat.
Whether the internal contradiction over strategy forces a reset in the party's leadership or communications ahead of the federal cycle.

Sources

Barnaby Joyce is already talking down One Nation’s chances in Victoria · The Sydney Morning Herald
Barnaby Joyce is already talking down One Nation’s chances in Victoria · The Age