JPMorgan forecasts bitcoin returns of 10% a year, beating stocks, bonds and gold over next decade

First long-term range from the bank spans a 9.7% annual loss in the bear case to 17% gains in the bull case, but JPMorgan still calls bitcoin speculative

By LineZotpaper

Published20 October 2026

Read Time2 min

JPMorgan has for the first time put a range on bitcoin's long-term returns, forecasting 10% annualised gains over the next decade in its base case, ahead of its projections for US stocks, bonds and gold, while still describing the cryptocurrency as a speculative bet on monetary easing.

JPMorgan expects bitcoin to outperform US stocks, bonds and gold over the next 10 years, according to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report released on Tuesday.

The New York-based bank set a base case of 10% annualised returns for bitcoin, with a bear case of a 9.7% annual loss and a bull case of 17% annual gains. The figures compare with its projections of 5.6% to 6.6% growth for US bonds, 7.5% for large-cap US equities, 7.7% for small-cap equities and 5.5% for gold. The report marks the first time JPMorgan has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research.

Despite the favourable forecast, the bank maintained a cautious view, saying bitcoin's "volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes...remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios."

Portfolio manager Dr Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo described bitcoin as a "speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing." "It lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains," they said. "BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as 'digital gold.'"

"Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle," they added. "A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology."

JPMorgan has a complicated history with cryptocurrency, largely shaped by chief executive Jamie Dimon's widely publicised views. Dimon famously called bitcoin a "fraud" in 2017, a position he has reiterated in somewhat softer terms in recent years. Bitcoin was trading at about $81,460 as the research was published.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The forecast is the first time JPMorgan has published a range of long-term bitcoin returns, a sign the asset is being folded into mainstream institutional planning after years of scepticism from the bank's leadership.
A 10% annualised base case would place bitcoin ahead of US equities, bonds and gold in JPMorgan's decade-long projections.
The bank's caution, despite the bullish number, keeps alive the debate over whether bitcoin belongs in diversified portfolios or is best understood as a speculative trade on monetary conditions.

Background

JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is an annual exercise that sets multi-year expectations across asset classes and is widely used by institutional investors for portfolio planning. The bank's stance on bitcoin has long been shaped by chief executive Jamie Dimon, who called the cryptocurrency a "fraud" in 2017 and has since maintained a sceptical tone in softer language. Tuesday's report is the first time the bank has offered a formal range of long-run returns for the asset rather than commentary alone.

Key Perspectives

JPMorgan's strategists: See bitcoin as a speculative hedge on monetary easing and fiat currency expansion, with returns that largely track global money supply growth. They flag unstable correlations and the absence of cash-flow fundamentals as the key modelling challenges. Institutional investors: The bank's warning that volatility and unstable correlations hinder widespread portfolio inclusion is directed squarely at them, and the report stops short of recommending bitcoin as a diversifier for multi-asset portfolios. Bitcoin proponents: Can point to the forecast itself as evidence of the asset's growing acceptance, since a major investment bank now projects it will beat conventional asset classes over a decade.

What to Watch

Whether bitcoin's realised returns over coming years land within JPMorgan's base, bear and bull ranges.
The adoption, regulation and liquidity developments the bank says will shape the asset's economics.
Whether other major banks follow JPMorgan with long-term bitcoin forecasts of their own.

Sources

JPMorgan sees 10% annual bitcoin returns, topping stocks, bonds and gold over next decade · CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.

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SupportedJPMorgan forecasts bitcoin returns of 10% a year, beating stocks, bonds and gold over the next decade.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “JPMorgan projects bitcoin will return 10% annually over the next decade in its base case, outpacing its forecasts for U.S. stocks, bonds and gold.”
SupportedThe summary says JPMorgan’s range runs from a 9.7% annual loss in the bear case to a 17% annual gain in the bull case.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “The bank’s first range of long-term bitcoin forecasts spans from a 9.7% annual loss in its bear case to a 17% annual gain in its bull case.”
Partly supportedThe opening describes bitcoin as a speculative bet on monetary easing.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “JPMorgan remains cautious about bitcoin, describing it as a speculative asset whose volatility and unstable correlations hinder its widespread inclusion in investment portfolios.”
SupportedJPMorgan’s projections are 5.6%–6.6% for US bonds, 7.5% for large-cap US equities, 7.7% for small-cap US equities and 5.5% for gold.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “The figure compared to projected 5.6%-6.6% growth in U.S. bonds, 7.5% and 7.7% in U.S. large and small-cap equities respectively and 5.5% in gold.”
SupportedThe report is the first time JPMorgan has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “The report marks the first time JPMorgan has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research.”
SupportedJPMorgan said bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlation remain an obstacle to its widespread inclusion in portfolios.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “JPMorgan maintained a cautious view of bitcoin in Tuesday’s report, saying its “volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes…remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios.””
SupportedShah and Cristallo described bitcoin as a “speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “Furthermore, the bank does not make a case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, instead viewing it as a “speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing,” according to comments by portfolio manager Dr Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo.”
SupportedShah and Cristallo said bitcoin lacks a strategic role in portfolios except as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: ““It lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains,” they added.”
SupportedShah and Cristallo said BTC mostly trades like a high-beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but is sometimes treated as digital gold.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: ““BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as ‘digital gold.’””
SupportedShah and Cristallo called unstable correlations a modeling hurdle.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: ““Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle.””
SupportedShah and Cristallo said forecasting bitcoin is a challenge because its fundamentals are not cash flows and its economics may involve adoption, regulation and liquidity as much as technology.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: ““A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology.””
SupportedJamie Dimon called bitcoin a fraud in 2017 and reiterated that position in softer terms in recent years.CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data: “Dimon famously described the world’s largest crypto as a “fraud” in 2017, a skeptical position he has reiterated with somewhat softer verbiage in recent years.”