Kabila joins rebel coalition in Congo, raising fears of a wider war

The Front for the Refoundation of the Nation unites militias and opposition figures, including the Rwanda-backed M23

By LineZotpaper

Published22 October 2026

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Former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has joined a new armed coalition seeking to challenge the Democratic Republic of Congo’s government “by all means, including force,” prompting analysts to warn that a conflict long confined to the country’s east could spread toward the capital, Kinshasa.

Kabila, who led Congo from 2001 to 2019, last week joined the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), a coalition that unites militias and opposition figures under one banner. It includes the Rwanda-backed M23 movement, which has controlled vast areas of eastern Congo since 2022, and the broader Congo River Alliance, led by Corneille Nangaa, the former head of the country’s electoral commission.

Analysts say the insurgency could now move beyond the east. Kinshasa “confronts a more formidable opposition: an armed movement with demonstrated military capabilities, led by a former president with extensive political networks,” commentator Samson Kasujja wrote.

The FRN’s members have diverse aims. M23 says it seeks protection and a greater political voice for Congo’s minority Tutsi population, which has long faced discrimination. Kabila, once Tshisekedi’s coalition partner and now his rival, is widely expected to use his political connections to unseat the president. The broader conflict is rooted in competition over land and mineral resources: Congo produces more than 70 percent of the world’s cobalt.

The escalation marks the failure of a peace deal brokered by the Trump administration last year, under which Congo agreed to give the United States preferential access to minerals in exchange for security support, and Rwanda agreed to stop backing M23 in exchange for private U.S. investment in minerals processing.

The fighting has already displaced more than eight million people. Tshisekedi, whose 2018 election win was widely disputed, faces mounting calls to resign over constitutional reforms that could allow a third term, and Belgian police last week raided the homes of his family members and associates in connection with a money-laundering probe linked to mining revenues. Kabila, deeply unpopular when he left office and sentenced to death in absentia in September 2025 on treason charges over alleged M23 support, remains a polarizing figure. Questions linger over how long the FRN can hold together given its members’ disparate goals and reported internal power struggles within M23.

The political crisis has also diverted attention from Congo’s Ebola outbreak, the fastest-growing on record. The virus has infected nearly 10,000 people and killed more than 4,000, with no approved treatment for the latest strain, which has spread to four other countries.

Also in the region: Mauritius is experiencing its most violent demonstrations in decades. Protests over high living costs and water shortages escalated after police shot and seriously wounded a demonstrator on Oct. 9. Authorities lifted a curfew on Monday, with nearly 100 people arrested, including 16 minors. The government is considering lowering the age for detention and prosecution of minors from 14 to 12.

The European Union has approved an additional 25 million euros ($29 million) for authorities in eastern Libya to control migration, despite reports linking some of those officials to people-smuggling networks. More than 30 rights groups opposed greater EU cooperation with Libyan authorities.

Ethiopia’s federal government has appointed a new interim administration for the northern Tigray region after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front withdrew from Mekelle. Fighting continues in the Amhara, Tigray and Afar regions.

Analysis

Why This Matters

A wider war in Congo would deepen a humanitarian crisis that has already displaced more than eight million people, with civilians exposed to sexual violence and forced recruitment.
Congo is the world’s top cobalt producer and holds other minerals essential to technology and defense industries, giving the conflict global economic stakes.
The collapse of last year’s US-brokered peace deal raises doubts about diplomatic approaches and could draw Rwanda further into the conflict.

Background

The Democratic Republic of Congo has experienced decades of instability in its eastern provinces, where numerous armed groups compete for territory, political influence and mineral wealth. The M23 movement, widely reported as backed by Rwanda, has held large areas since 2022. Joseph Kabila and Félix Tshisekedi are both sons of prominent political figures: Tshisekedi’s 2018 election victory was disputed, and Kabila left office in 2019 after ruling since 2001, becoming the first leader in Congo’s history to oversee a peaceful handover of power.

Key Perspectives

Kabila and the FRN: The coalition positions itself as a political alternative to Tshisekedi and says it will challenge the government “by all means, including force.” Kabila’s political networks give the movement reach beyond the east. M23: The armed group says it is fighting for protection and a greater political voice for Congo’s Tutsi minority, which has long faced discrimination. Tshisekedi government: Facing protests over proposed constitutional changes, a corruption investigation in Belgium, and a rebellion it has condemned as treasonable, the administration is under mounting pressure. Critics and analysts: Question whether the FRN can cohere, noting that its members have divergent goals and that M23 is reportedly dealing with its own internal power struggle.

What to Watch

Any military movement by the FRN beyond eastern Congo toward Kinshasa or other western regions.
Signs of internal splits within the FRN, or a leadership challenge inside M23.
The trajectory of the Ebola outbreak, which has spread to four other countries, and whether treatment approvals or containment efforts follow.
Whether the US or other actors attempt to revive a peace process after the collapse of last year’s deal.

Sources

What a New Rebel Alliance Means for Congo · Foreign Policy

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12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 8 supported.

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SupportedKabila joined a rebel coalition, raising fears that the war could widen.Foreign Policy: “A new rebel alliance in eastern Congo threatens to drag the rest of the country into a wider war. Last week, former President Joseph Kabila ... joined an armed coalition”
SupportedThe coalition seeks to challenge the government “by all means, including force.”Foreign Policy: “joined an armed coalition that seeks to challenge the current administration “by all means, including force.””
SupportedAnalysts warn that the insurgency could spread from eastern Congo toward Kinshasa.Foreign Policy: “some analysts believe that an insurgency that has so far been concentrated in eastern territories could make its way to the capital of Kinshasa”
Partly supportedThe conflict has long been confined to eastern Congo.Foreign Policy: “an insurgency that has so far been concentrated in eastern territories”
Partly supportedSamson Kasujja wrote that Kinshasa “confronts a more formidable opposition: an armed movement with demonstrated military capabilities, led by a former president with extensive political networks.”Foreign Policy: “Kinshasa “now confronts a more formidable opposition: an armed movement with demonstrated military capabilities, led by a former president with extensive political networks,” commentator Samson Kasujja wrote last week in the Great Lakes Eye .”
SupportedThe FRN includes the Rwanda-backed M23 movement.Foreign Policy: “The new coalition , called the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), unites militias and opposition figures under one banner. It includes the Rwanda-backed M23 movement”
Partly supportedM23 says it seeks protection and a greater political voice for Congo’s minority Tutsi population.Foreign Policy: “M23, for instance, purports to seek protection—and a greater political voice—for Congo’s minority Tutsi population”
Partly supportedKabila is widely expected to use his political connections to unseat Tshisekedi.Foreign Policy: “Kabila, meanwhile, likely aims to use his political connections to unseat Congo’s current president, Félix Tshisekedi”
SupportedThe fighting has displaced more than eight million people.Foreign Policy: “Already, the fighting has displaced more than 8 million people.”
SupportedKabila was sentenced to death in absentia in September 2025 on treason charges over alleged support for M23.Foreign Policy: “a Congolese military court sentenced Kabila to death in absentia in September 2025 on charges of treason over claims that he was supporting M23.”
SupportedEbola has infected nearly 10,000 people.Foreign Policy: “Ebola has infected nearly 10,000 people and killed more than 4,000.”
SupportedEbola has killed more than 4,000 people.Foreign Policy: “Ebola has infected nearly 10,000 people and killed more than 4,000.”