NSW Labor's assistant secretary George Simon used a meeting of the party's Left faction last Tuesday to urge MPs against complacency, running through seats where the party was vulnerable to One Nation. One source said that encompassed about 12 seats. Simon and his Right faction counterpart David Dobson have delivered a series of briefings to MPs and branch members warning that a worst-case scenario could see Labor lose seats in the Hunter, Central Coast, south-west Sydney and southern NSW, potentially consigning the Minns government to a single term.
During a meeting of Labor's Left faction MPs in parliament last week, Simon said the party's primary vote was below 30 per cent and a worsening economy had put the government at risk. Multiple sources described his tone as pessimistic and downbeat. One source present put the number of Labor seats that could be lost between 10 and 13.
Premier Chris Minns said on Tuesday that if he lost the election, it would be to One Nation. "They'll [either] be the biggest party, or the biggest party other than us, and they're polling extraordinarily well," he said. While Cessnock has long been identified as the most at-risk Labor seat, electorates including Camden, Maitland, Port Stephens, Bega, South Coast, Swansea, Penrith, Kiama, The Entrance and Shellharbour are among those party officials are concerned about.
The private warnings offer insight into how a three-cornered election and NSW's optional preferential voting system could result in One Nation and the Coalition forming government. Liberal leader Kellie Sloane has ruled out joining a formal coalition with One Nation but indicated the Liberals could work with the party.
Labor is governing in minority. Even picking up seven Sydney seats held by the Liberals on margins of less than 5 per cent may not offset losses in a worst-case scenario. Some briefings have also focused on opportunities, with weak Liberal polling meaning seats such as Miranda, Drummoyne and even Lane Cove are viewed as in play.
Some senior branch members and MPs were sceptical about the doom narrative, saying head office had an interest in lighting a fire under colleagues and forcing the public to confront the prospect of One Nation governing. One source who attended an administrative committee meeting said: "Everyone's eyes are wide open. It's nowhere near panic mode, but anyone who thinks it's a lay-down misere is kidding themselves."
After the South Australian election, Labor's internal research found some voters had voted for One Nation knowing a popular government would be returned. Labor fears that dynamic is repeating in NSW, particularly as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's popularity slides. One MP said: "There's a bunch of people who are angry because economic times are tough, and they want to send a message."