Libya's rival factions have signed an initial agreement outlining a framework for national elections, marking a tentative step toward resolving the country's prolonged political crisis. However, the deal—reached after months of UN-mediated talks—faces serious obstacles, including divided institutions, unresolved legal disputes, and deep mutual mistrust among key players, raising doubts about whether the vote can be held as planned.
The agreement, signed in Geneva on Tuesday, commits Libya's two main political blocs—the UN-backed Government of National Unity (GNU) led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) led by Speaker Aguila Saleh—to a roadmap for presidential and parliamentary elections. The pact includes a timeline for finalizing a constitutional basis for the vote and establishing a unified electoral commission.
Yet the details remain sparse. The GNU insists elections must be based on a 2017 constitutional draft, while the HoR and the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar demand a revised framework that gives more power to the east. The dispute over the legal basis for elections has been the primary obstacle since the collapse of a previous UN-brokered process in 2021, when the scheduled vote was indefinitely postponed after disputes over candidate eligibility and the electoral law.
"This is an agreement on the outline, not the substance," said a European diplomat involved in the talks. "The real test will be whether the factions can translate these principles into binding legislation and build trust on the ground."
Libya has been mired in chaos since the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. The country split into rival administrations in 2014 after a civil war, with the internationally recognized GNU based in Tripoli and a parallel government in the east backed by the LNA. A fragile ceasefire in 2020 led to the formation of the GNU, but tensions have persisted, with sporadic clashes and an ongoing dispute over control of the country's oil revenues.
The election pact is seen by many as a last-ditch effort to prevent a return to full-scale conflict. International pressure, particularly from the United Nations and the United States, has been mounting for a political solution. However, ordinary Libyans remain skeptical. "We've seen promises before, but nothing changes," said Fatima al-Mansouri, a shopkeeper in Tripoli. "The politicians are only interested in their own power."
If the agreement fails to produce concrete results, the risk of renewed violence is high. Both sides have been building up forces, and the LNA controls large swaths of the south and east. The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has urged all parties to implement the pact in good faith, warning that "the window of opportunity is closing."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Impact on Stability: A successful election could end the decade-long power struggle and unify Libya's fragmented institutions, reducing the risk of another civil war and stabilizing oil production.
- Regional Implications: Libya's instability fuels migration across the Mediterranean, arms flows, and proxy conflicts involving regional powers like Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE. A stable Libya would help address these issues.
- What Happens Next: The next six months will be critical. If the factions fail to agree on a constitutional framework and electoral law by the end of 2026, the deal could collapse, potentially triggering a new round of violence or a return to UN-led negotiations.
Background
Libya has been politically fractured since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted Muammar Gaddafi. The country quickly descended into civil war, with rival militias and governments vying for control. In 2014, the conflict split Libya into two main factions: the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives backed by the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar.
A 2020 ceasefire led to the formation of a unified GNU in 2021, with Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh as prime minister. Elections scheduled for December 2021 were canceled amid disputes over candidate eligibility and the electoral law. Since then, the GNU has remained in power, but its legitimacy has been contested by the HoR, which appointed a rival government under Fathi Bashagha in 2022. The standoff has left Libya with two parallel administrations and no clear path to unity.
Key Perspectives
Government of National Unity (GNU) under Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh: Dbeibeh seeks to hold elections to legitimize his rule and secure international support. He advocates for a rapid vote based on the 2017 constitutional draft, which he believes favors his position. The GNU is concerned that further delays could strengthen the eastern factions.
House of Representatives (HoR) and Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar: The eastern bloc wants a revised constitutional framework that gives more power to the region, including control over security and oil revenues. They are wary of elections that could perpetuate GNU dominance and have demanded a role in appointing a new transitional government before the vote.
Critics and Skeptics: Many Libyans and international observers fear the pact is too vague and lacks enforcement mechanisms. They point to past failures—the 2021 election cancellation, the breakdown of the 2020 ceasefire—as evidence that the factions are not serious about compromise. Without a binding agreement on the electoral law and a unified security apparatus, the vote could be marred by fraud, boycotts, or violence.
What to Watch
- Constitutional Framework: Whether the factions can agree on a legal basis for elections by the end of 2026. This is the most critical step and the one most likely to cause delays.
- Electoral Commission: The establishment of a unified High National Elections Commission (HNEC) with buy-in from both sides. If the HNEC remains divided, the vote cannot proceed.
- International Pressure: The response from the UN, US, EU, and neighboring states. If they threaten sanctions on spoilers, it could push the factions toward implementation. Conversely, if they accept further delays, the pact may lose momentum.
- Security Situation: Any major clashes or military movements by the LNA or GNU-aligned militias could derail the process entirely. Watch for troop movements around oil fields and major cities.