Brazil's presidential election is heading for a photo finish, with the PoderData polling institute projecting exactly 50 percent support for both incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, five days before the October 25 runoff. The race has tightened after Bolsonaro led by up to six points last week, following his first-round win on October 4, when he took 47 percent of the vote. His right-wing bloc also gained additional seats in Congress, mostly at the expense of centrist parties.
Lula recovered momentum through nationwide mass rallies and a dynamic social media presence, while Bolsonaro had scaled back street campaigning on the strength of his poll numbers, a decision that appears to have cost him. He is now mobilizing supporters for major rallies across the country again.
The rivalry between Lula's left-wing camp and the Bolsonaro family's far-right bloc has shaped Brazilian politics for a decade. Political scientist Marco Aurelio Nogueira told DW that polarization has wiped out centrist alternatives. "The divide between Lula and Bolsonarism has paralyzed Brazilian politics, and anything that didn't belong to one pole or the other has disappeared," he said. He blamed social media for fueling the split, saying "platforms' algorithms thrive on conflict and reward excitement."
Nogueira said Flavio Bolsonaro's calm demeanor could explain why he has a realistic chance of beating Lula, unlike his father in 2022. "Jair Messias Bolsonaro was a crude, rhetorically aggressive figure," he said. "Flavio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, casts himself as more moderate and gives Bolsonarism a more youthful image. He communicates skillfully, posts well-produced videos, and addresses workers' issues, such as the introduction of the five-day workweek."
The challenger has also shifted on policy. After Lula promised to shorten the workweek, Bolsonaro gave up his opposition and voted in favor of the five-day workweek. He had announced drastic budget cuts before the first round, modeled on the policies of his libertarian Argentine ally Javier Milei, but now intends to continue Lula's social programs, without presenting a plan for reducing Brazil's high public debt.
The campaign has been overshadowed by the corruption scandal around the insolvent Banco Master. Former owner Daniel Vorcaro is under investigation for fraud, money laundering and corruption, and is accused of bribing decision-makers in politics, finance and the judiciary, with several Supreme Court justices said to be involved. Flavio Bolsonaro is alleged to have accepted goods and services from Vorcaro, including a reported 10 million euro donation for a film about his father's life. Lula has not been able to capitalize on those allegations: his own son is implicated in another corruption scandal, and Bolsonaro has repeatedly pointed to Lula's 2017 corruption conviction, later overturned by the Supreme Court.
Nogueira said the mutual accusations have left voters jaded. "There are constant reports about scandals and mutual accusations from all sides," he said. "As a result, the effect is essentially canceled out in the election campaign. The average voter tunes out and no longer attaches much importance to these accusations when making a voting decision."
The candidates held their first live television debate on Sunday and will face off again on Friday on broadcaster Globo, two days before the vote. Experts say the key for both will be to avoid being rattled by provocations, with concrete policies expected to play only a minor role.