Moscow airports closed almost daily as Ukraine pushes to make Russian airspace unsafe

Drone campaign forces repeated suspension of flights under Russia's emergency 'carpet' protocol

By LineZotpaper
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Ukrainian drone strikes have forced Moscow's four main airports to suspend operations almost daily in October, as Kyiv pursues President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's declared goal of making Russian airspace "completely unsafe."

Ukrainian drone strikes have forced Moscow's Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo airports to shut down operations almost daily in October, according to the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo, with closures lasting up to nine hours on some days. The campaign reflects a strategy President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in early September: make Russian airspace too dangerous for airlines and insurers.

"Today, we would like to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who continues to use major Russian airports: Russian airspace will become completely unsafe," Zelenskyy said. The following day, Ukraine sent a corresponding warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukrainian airspace has itself been closed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The closures are triggered by Russia's emergency "carpet" protocol, issued by the aviation authority Rosaviatsiya when an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used or unidentified objects appear in the skies. Once declared, the protocol imposes drastic restrictions on all air traffic. "If there is a military threat, a specific section of airspace is closed off, and this carpet is declared. Essentially, every drone poses a military threat," said Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the Friendly Avia Support consultancy.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev said Ukraine would have little trouble severely disrupting Moscow-area air traffic, arguing that "all you need are simple drones that don't have to be equipped with a warhead or even have a long range." Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones a day, he said, and Russia's air defenses have not proved effective. "If it were possible to shoot them down, they would have done so by now," he said. Writing in The Atlantic in October, Simon Shuster reported, citing well-informed sources, that Ukraine's efforts to shut down Russian airspace were "just getting started."

Both analysts warned of the risks to civilian aviation. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents like the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which investigators say was struck by a Russian air-defense missile defending against drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said Russia's air-defense protocol had changed little since, and that a drone reaching Moscow from Ukraine must be relatively large, weighing dozens of kilograms, making a collision with an aircraft potentially serious even without explosives.

Attacks have extended beyond Moscow. Ukrainian forces struck Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports, with Zelenskyy saying in September that Kyiv's airport and Boryspil airport near the capital had been hit.

Laneckij said international airlines would weigh three factors in deciding whether to keep flying to Russia: the military threat, demand and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, rates could climb sharply and ticket prices would follow, he said, while reduced competition in Russia's aviation market has boosted demand for the foreign carriers that remain. "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced," he said.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Ukraine is demonstrating it can disrupt daily life in the Russian capital and deep inside Russian territory, extending the war far beyond the front line.
  • Civilian aviation safety over Russia is a growing concern: the December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines crash showed what can happen when air defenses fire at drones near passenger aircraft.
  • International airlines face hard commercial choices on routes to Russia, where competition has thinned and insurance costs could spike.

Background

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 closed Ukrainian airspace, and the war since then has featured repeated cross-border drone strikes. Russia's "carpet" protocol is an emergency procedure that closes defined airspace whenever a threat such as an unidentified object is detected, grounding traffic in the affected zone. In December 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed after investigators found it had been struck by Russian air-defense fire aimed at drones, killing 38 people.

Key Perspectives

Ukraine: The government has declared that Russian airspace will become "completely unsafe" and is pursuing a strategy of forcing airports in Moscow and elsewhere to close, both to disrupt Russian life and to pressure international airlines and insurers to withdraw. Russia: Its aviation authority triggers the carpet protocol whenever drones approach, prioritising defense against the strikes even at the cost of repeated airport closures and disruption to passengers. International airlines and insurers: Carriers still flying to Russia weigh the military threat against demand and insurance costs; insurers could raise premiums sharply if they judge the risk to be high, pushing ticket prices up.

What to Watch

  • Whether the closures become more frequent or permanent, and whether Ukraine achieves the complete shutdown of Russian airspace that Zelenskyy has promised.
  • Any changes in insurance rates or decisions by foreign airlines to suspend Moscow routes.
  • Air-defense incidents near civilian aircraft, which could produce a second catastrophe like the 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines crash.

Sources

Checked

10 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.

Show each claim
  1. Not in the sourcesThe Moscow airports’ repeated flight suspensions were under Russia’s emergency “carpet” protocol.DW English: “Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya, has issued an emergency safety "carpet" protocol that is designed to immediately shut down the airspace over a specific region or around affected airports if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the skies.”
  2. SupportedMoscow’s airports closed almost daily in October amid Ukraine’s effort to make Russian airspace unsafe.DW English: “Moscow's Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo airports have had to shut down operations almost daily in October, according to reports from the independent investigative media outlet Agentstvo.”
  3. Partly supportedUkrainian drone strikes forced Moscow’s four “main” airports to suspend operations almost daily in October.DW English: “For months, drone strikes by Ukraine have forced the suspension of flights to and from airports in Russia. Moscow's Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo airports have had to shut down operations almost daily in October, according to reports from the independent investigative media outlet Agentstvo.”
  4. SupportedZelenskyy said Russian airspace would become “completely unsafe.”DW English: “"Today, we would like to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who continues to use major Russian airports: Russian airspace will become completely unsafe," Zelenskyy said.”
  5. SupportedThe airports were reportedly closed for up to nine hours on some days.DW English: “On some days, the airports were reportedly closed for up to nine hours.”
  6. SupportedUkraine sent a corresponding warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the day after Zelenskyy’s announcement.DW English: “The following day, Ukraine sent a corresponding warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization.”
  7. SupportedUkraine’s airspace has been closed since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.DW English: “Ukraine's airspace has been closed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 .”
  8. SupportedLaneckij said that “Essentially, every drone poses a military threat.”DW English: “"If there is a military threat, a specific section of airspace is closed off, and this carpet is declared," Oleksandr Laneckij, the chief executive officer of the Friendly Avia Support consultancy, told DW. "Essentially, every drone poses a military threat."”
  9. Partly supportedMatvejev said Russia’s air defenses had not proved effective.DW English: “Matvejev said Russia's air-defense systems were not entirely effective in efforts to prevent Ukrainian drones from penetrating Moscow's airspace.”
  10. SupportedInvestigators say a Russian air-defense missile struck the Azerbaijan Airlines flight in the 2024 crash, killing 38 people.DW English: “Investigators say the flight was struck by a Russian air-defense missile that was being used to defend against drones, killing 38 people.”

Zotpaper

Written by Rex Doyle on the World desk. Claims checked by Ines Fairley, verification. Edited by Angus Burke, chief sub.

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