Ukrainian drone strikes have forced Moscow's Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo airports to shut down operations almost daily in October, according to the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo, with closures lasting up to nine hours on some days. The campaign reflects a strategy President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in early September: make Russian airspace too dangerous for airlines and insurers.
"Today, we would like to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who continues to use major Russian airports: Russian airspace will become completely unsafe," Zelenskyy said. The following day, Ukraine sent a corresponding warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukrainian airspace has itself been closed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
The closures are triggered by Russia's emergency "carpet" protocol, issued by the aviation authority Rosaviatsiya when an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used or unidentified objects appear in the skies. Once declared, the protocol imposes drastic restrictions on all air traffic. "If there is a military threat, a specific section of airspace is closed off, and this carpet is declared. Essentially, every drone poses a military threat," said Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the Friendly Avia Support consultancy.
Military analyst Jan Matvejev said Ukraine would have little trouble severely disrupting Moscow-area air traffic, arguing that "all you need are simple drones that don't have to be equipped with a warhead or even have a long range." Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones a day, he said, and Russia's air defenses have not proved effective. "If it were possible to shoot them down, they would have done so by now," he said. Writing in The Atlantic in October, Simon Shuster reported, citing well-informed sources, that Ukraine's efforts to shut down Russian airspace were "just getting started."
Both analysts warned of the risks to civilian aviation. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents like the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which investigators say was struck by a Russian air-defense missile defending against drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said Russia's air-defense protocol had changed little since, and that a drone reaching Moscow from Ukraine must be relatively large, weighing dozens of kilograms, making a collision with an aircraft potentially serious even without explosives.
Attacks have extended beyond Moscow. Ukrainian forces struck Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports, with Zelenskyy saying in September that Kyiv's airport and Boryspil airport near the capital had been hit.
Laneckij said international airlines would weigh three factors in deciding whether to keep flying to Russia: the military threat, demand and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, rates could climb sharply and ticket prices would follow, he said, while reduced competition in Russia's aviation market has boosted demand for the foreign carriers that remain. "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced," he said.