Museveni's son threatens vice president as arrests fuel succession tensions

The arrests, some amid allegations of treason and corruption, have unsettled the military's top ranks and sparked disagreement about whether they are part of an anti-corruption drive or a political purge aimed at sideline officers opposed to Kainerugaba's presidential ambitions. President Museveni, 82, has ruled Uganda since 1986 and began his seventh term this year. Kainerugaba, 52, is widely seen as a potential successor and has indicated he intends to seek the presidency in 2031.

Among those detained is former deputy army chief Lt Gen Peter Elwelu, detained on 2 November over allegations that he had plotted to destabilise the eastern Teso region. Kainerugaba announced Elwelu's demotion on X, writing that “the traitor Peter Elwelu is hereby stripped of his ranks. He is demoted to Private.” The army later said it had recovered weapons linked to him. Elwelu's family has rejected the allegations.

Other high-profile arrests include former intelligence chiefs Maj Gen James Birungi, who was later released after Kainerugaba said he had "forgiven" him, and Maj Gen Abel Kandiho, who remains in detention. Three former military intelligence chiefs have been arrested since April 2025, according to the Daily Monitor.

The military has defended the arrests as part of efforts to tackle corruption. Government spokesperson Allan Kasujja dismissed claims of a succession fallout as “hogwash”. The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) rejected reports that its senior leadership had rejected a proposal to back Kainerugaba as the next president, calling them “completely false”. However, five party sources told AFP that a vote was abandoned after several members spoke against the proposal.

On 9 November, Kainerugaba turned his attention to Vice President Alupo, posting on X: "Whoever is in that office should prepare to hand it over soon." He questioned her loyalty and threatened her dismissal. The posts were later deleted, and his account became inaccessible. Alupo has not publicly responded.

Analysts are divided on the motives. Dr Gerald Bareebe, a political scientist at York University, says the arrests target “senior officers believed not to support the project” and amount to “a broad purge that has affected both serving and retired officers perceived to be anti-Muhoozi”. Security analyst Freddie David Egesa, however, says the arrests reflect investigations involving different security agencies rather than an army-led purge. “Gen Muhoozi has the overall duty to permit the investigation team to arrest these high-profile people, in consultation with the commander-in-chief,” he said.

Bareebe also argues that the Special Forces Command, which protects the president, remains largely loyal to Museveni and his son, and could be used to capture power in a contested transition. "The underlying calculation appears to be that, so long as Muhoozi controls the SFC, he can use it to capture power even in an event of a contested transition," he said.

The succession debate is unfolding against a backdrop of pressure on the opposition. Veteran politician Kizza Besigye remains in detention on treason charges, which he denies, and Bobi Wine, who came second in this year's election, has gone into exile in the US. For now, Museveni remains in power, but the arrests, his son's threats and competing accounts of party divisions have intensified questions about how Uganda's next political transition will unfold.