Matt Canavan has confirmed a bid to switch from the Senate and seek the central Queensland seat of Capricornia at the next federal election, declaring he “may politically die” in the attempt and raising the prospect of a showdown with One Nation.
Canavan, the Nationals leader, said on Monday he was nominating to run for the House of Representatives, releasing a statement in which he said he was "putting it all on the line". "I am nominating to be a candidate in the House of Reps to help change this country, unleash our nation's potential and bring down the cost of living for all Australian families," he said. "As leader of The Nationals, I have a duty to be on the frontline with my team, to get rid of this terrible government. I realise there is no such thing as a safe seat any more. I may politically die in this endeavour, but I am not going to die wondering."
The Rockhampton-based seat of Capricornia has traditionally leaned towards Labor, but Michelle Landry has held it for the Liberal National Party at the past five elections. Landry announced last month she would not recontest. One Nation has committed significant resources to the electorate amid a surge in support, and the party's national director, James Ashby, is based in the coastal town of Yeppoon within the seat and has long teased a run, though he is yet to confirm his intention.
Pauline Hanson has ruled herself out of the seat, but left the door open for Ashby. "It's still over a year out from the election, a year and a half, so I'm not making any decisions or giving any indication where I'm standing or where James Ashby, if James Ashby is going to stand," she told reporters.
Canavan had previously been tipped to make a bid for the House of Representatives amid pollster warnings that the Nationals leader had a “zero per cent” chance of holding on to his Senate spot if One Nation maintained its surge in opinion polls. At the 2025 election, Landry recorded a primary vote of 36.56 per cent, Labor's Emily Mawson 31.9 per cent and One Nation's Cheryl Kempton 15.5 per cent, with Landry winning 55.8 per cent to 43.41 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. LNP strategists had been concerned about support dipping without Landry's personal popularity and viewed Canavan as the best option to stave off One Nation.
Canavan argued the next election should be a "true referendum on net zero", calling Australia's 2050 target the "biggest handbrake" on industry in central Queensland and the nation. "Net zero is pushing up the price of energy, net zero is shipping our jobs overseas and net zero is destroying the natural environment it is meant to protect, through the rollout of industrial-sized wind and solar projects," he said.
Mawson, who increased Labor's primary vote by nearly 4 per cent at the last poll, is highly rated by her party internally. A source with knowledge of internal decisions said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is eager for her to run again, but she is yet to reveal her intention.
Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie said One Nation should be targeting Labor seats rather than Coalition-held ones. "If One Nation is really serious about firing the liar, then they need to start running in Labor party seats instead of running against someone like Matt Canavan," she told Nine's Today show. "[I'm] not afraid of a fight – I want to save our country, and that means changing the prime minister, and that means taking Labor party seats."
The front page in your inbox each weekday morning: the lead, the picks, and why each one earned its place.
Primary vote in Capricornia at the 2025 federal election
percent
Source: Sources [2], [3], [4]
§
Analysis
Why This Matters
Canavan is staking his leadership and political career on a seat One Nation is targeting with significant resources, making Capricornia a test of whether the Coalition can hold regional Queensland against the party's surge.
A contest between Canavan and One Nation's James Ashby would put two of the most prominent figures in conservative politics against each other in a single electorate, shaping the right-wing contest at the next federal election.
Canavan is seeking to make the election a referendum on net zero, a fight that could define how the Coalition and One Nation compete for regional voters concerned about energy costs and jobs.
Background
Capricornia is a central Queensland electorate that includes Rockhampton and the coastal town of Yeppoon. It has historically leaned to Labor but has been held for the Liberal National Party by Michelle Landry for the past five elections; Landry announced her retirement last month. Canavan, the Nationals leader who sits in the Senate, is seeking a lower house seat as One Nation's support has surged in opinion polls, a rise that pollsters warned put his Senate seat at risk.
Key Perspectives
Matt Canavan (Nationals leader): says he is nominating to help change the country and bring down the cost of living, and wants the next election to be a "true referendum on net zero", which he calls the "biggest handbrake" on industry.
Pauline Hanson (One Nation): ruled herself out of Capricornia but left the door open for James Ashby to run, saying it was too early to make decisions.
Bridget McKenzie (Nationals senator): says One Nation should run in Labor-held seats rather than against Coalition candidates like Canavan if it is serious about changing the government.
What to Watch
Whether James Ashby formally enters the race; his decision would turn Capricornia into a direct contest between Canavan and One Nation.
Whether Labor's Emily Mawson recontests, with Anthony Albanese reported to be keen for her to run again.
How One Nation's primary vote in the seat compares with the 15.5 per cent it recorded in 2025, and whether its polling surge translates into a stronger result on the ground.
12 claims in this story checked against 2 sources: 12 supported.
Show each claim
SupportedCanavan said he may politically die in the attempt.The Age - Latest News: ““I may politically die in this endeavour, but I am not going to die wondering.””
SupportedCanavan confirmed a bid to switch from the Senate to the lower house for Capricornia.The Age - Latest News: “Matt Canavan has confirmed his bid to switch from the Senate to the lower house”
SupportedCanavan's move could set up a contest with One Nation following Michelle Landry's decision not to recontest.The Age - Latest News: “Matt Canavan will seek a lower house seat at the next election, potentially setting up a showdown with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party. [...] Canavan’s bid [...] comes after Michelle Landry revealed last month she would not recontest the next poll.”
SupportedCanavan said he was nominating to be a House of Representatives candidate and was “putting it all on the line”.The Age - Latest News: “releasing a statement on Monday morning he was “putting it all on the line”. “I am nominating to be a candidate in the House of Reps”
SupportedHanson said the election was still over a year, or a year and a half, away and she was not indicating whether she or Ashby would stand.Australia news | The Guardian: ““It’s still over a year out from the election, a year and a half, so I’m not making any decisions or giving any indication where I’m standing or where James Ashby, if James Ashby is going to stand,””
SupportedPollsters warned Canavan had a “zero per cent” chance of holding his Senate spot if One Nation maintained its surge in opinion polls.Australia news | The Guardian: “amid warnings from pollsters the Nationals leader has a “zero per cent” chance of holding on to his Senate spot if One Nation maintained its surge in opinion polls.”
SupportedAt the 2025 election, Landry, Mawson and Kempton received primary votes of 36.56%, 31.9% and 15.5%, respectively.The Age - Latest News: “At the last poll in 2025, she recorded a primary vote of 36.56 per cent while her Labor opponent Emily Mawson recorded 31.9 per cent and One Nation candidate Cheryl Kempton scored 15.5 per cent.”
SupportedLandry won 55.8% to 43.41% on a two-party-preferred basis.The Age - Latest News: “Landry’s two-party preferred vote was 55.8 per cent to Labor’s 43.41 per cent.”
SupportedCanavan called net zero a “biggest handbrake” on industry and said it pushed up energy prices, shipped jobs overseas and harmed the natural environment.The Age - Latest News: “Canavan said Australia’s target for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 was the “biggest handbrake” on industry in Central Queensland and the nation more broadly [...] “Net zero is pushing up the price of energy, net zero is shipping our jobs overseas and net zero is destroying the natural environment it is meant to protect””
SupportedMawson increased Labor's primary vote by nearly 4% at the 2025 poll.The Age - Latest News: “Mawson, who increased Labor’s primary by nearly 4 per cent at the 2025 poll”
SupportedA source with knowledge of internal decisions said Albanese was eager for Mawson to run again, but she had not revealed her intention.The Age - Latest News: “A source with knowledge of internal decisions told this masthead Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is eager for Mawson to run once again, but she is yet to reveal her intention for the next election.”
SupportedMcKenzie said One Nation should run in Labor seats rather than against Canavan, and said she was not afraid of a fight.Australia news | The Guardian: ““If One Nation is really serious about firing the liar, then they need to start running in Labor party seats instead of running against someone like Matt Canavan,” [...] “[I’m] not afraid of a fight”