NHS England is on track to miss its target of treating 80% of cancer patients within 62 days of urgent referral or consultant upgrade by March 2027, with exclusive analysis showing a cumulative shortfall of nearly 10,000 patients, according to figures shared with the Guardian.
The proportion of patients starting treatment on time in September was 70.7%, down from 71.9% in August, NHS figures show. Analysis by Radiotherapy UK found that to hit the 80% target, 24,400 patients a month would need to start treatment on time, but the NHS is treating only about 21,500, leaving a monthly shortfall of 2,850 and a cumulative shortfall of 9,490 patients.
Prof Pat Price, chair of Radiotherapy UK and a leading oncologist, said the target would be missed because the NHS does not have enough staff or equipment. "This lack of leadership means thousands more people could die because they don't get their treatment on time," she said.
The analysis also found disparities between cancer types. While more than two-thirds of patients with prostate and breast cancers were treated within two months (70.1% and 68.8% respectively), only 60.9% of lung cancer patients and 60% of those with gynaecological cancers were treated on time. For head and neck cancers, barely half (56.5%) were.
Regional differences were stark, with the Midlands having the lowest proportion treated on time at 66.6%, compared with 77.3% in London.
Mark Lawler, professor of digital health at Queen's University Belfast, blamed failures of accountability and focus. "The whole system is being held together by goodwill glue alone," he said. "Lack of leadership is derailing efforts to improve cancer survival."
The figures come alongside analysis by Cancer Research UK showing that over the last year barely half (55.4%) of patients with cancer were diagnosed within 28 days of an urgent referral, against the faster diagnostic standard target of 80%. Naser Turabi, Cancer Research UK's director of health policy and evidence, said hospital capacity was not keeping pace with surging demand, with urgent referrals up about 20% over the past four years.
Dr Hilary Williams, clinical vice-president of the Royal College of Physicians, said earlier diagnosis was only beneficial if patients could then be treated quickly, requiring more capacity across the whole cancer pathway. Dr Stephen Harden, president of the Royal College of Radiologists, said "chronic shortages" of clinical radiologists and clinical oncologists were driving dangerous delays, and noted that "NHS hiring freezes for these doctors have doubled in the last year".
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said cancer waiting times were moving in the right direction, with all three cancer standards better than a year ago, and that the government's national cancer plan would help more people get diagnosed earlier and begin treatment sooner.
Analysis
Why this matters
- Nearly 10,000 cancer patients in England may not receive treatment on time, affecting their chances of recovery and survival.
- The target failure highlights systemic underfunding and workforce shortages that could worsen as demand for cancer care continues to rise.
- The government's national cancer plan, due to be delivered, is under scrutiny as it may fail to address immediate capacity gaps.
Background
The NHS in England has an interim target to treat 80% of cancer patients within 62 days of urgent referral or consultant upgrade by March 2027. With little more than 100 days left, the proportion of patients treated on time has fallen, and experts warn that deficits in staff, equipment, and leadership are undermining progress. The analysis comes as cancer diagnoses in England hit a record high of more than 1,000 people a day, and urgent referrals have risen by about 20% over four years.
Key perspectives
- Prof Pat Price (Radiotherapy UK): The government will miss its target because the NHS lacks staff and equipment, and this 'lack of leadership' could mean thousands more die.
- Mark Lawler (Queen's University Belfast): Lack of accountability and focus are to blame, with the system 'held together by goodwill glue alone'.
- Naser Turabi (Cancer Research UK): Hospital capacity cannot keep pace with surging demand, and recent investment in diagnostic equipment is not enough.
- Dr Hilary Williams (Royal College of Physicians): The NHS needs more capacity across the whole cancer pathway, including diagnostics and treatment, to avoid moving the bottleneck.
- Dr Stephen Harden (Royal College of Radiologists): Chronic shortages of radiologists and oncologists are causing dangerous delays, and NHS hiring freezes have doubled.
- Department of Health and Social Care: Cancer waiting times are moving in the right direction, with all three standards better than a year ago, and the national cancer plan will help earlier diagnosis and treatment.
What to watch
- Monthly NHS performance figures for the 62-day target over the next few months to see if the shortfall narrows before March 2027.
- The publication of the government's national cancer plan and whether it includes measures to lift hiring freezes and expand workforce capacity.
- Trends in urgent referrals and diagnostic waiting times, which indicate whether demand continues to outpace capacity.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedThe NHS is on course to miss its cancer treatment target by nearly 10,000 patients, according to analysis.UK news | The Guardian: “But the NHS is only treating about 21,500 cancer patients a month within the 62-day target, leaving a monthly shortfall of 2,850 and a cumulative shortfall of 9,490 patients, the charity found.”
- SupportedThe target is to treat 80% of cancer patients within 62 days of urgent referral or consultant upgrade by March 2027.UK news | The Guardian: “The NHS set an interim target to treat 80% of cancer patients within 62 days of urgent referral or consultant upgrade by March 2027.”
- SupportedIn September, 70.7% of patients started treatment on time, down from 71.9% in August.UK news | The Guardian: “the proportion of patients starting treatment on time in September was 70.7%, down from 71.9% in August, NHS figures show.”
- SupportedRadiotherapy UK calculated that 24,400 patients a month would need to start treatment on time, compared with about 21,500 currently; the monthly shortfall is 2,850 and the cumulative shortfall is 9,490.UK news | The Guardian: “According to calculations by Radiotherapy UK, 24,400 cancer patients a month would need to start treatment on time to hit the 80% target in March. But the NHS is only treating about 21,500 cancer patients a month within the 62-day target, leaving a monthly shortfall of 2,850 and a cumulative shortfall of 9,490 patients”
- SupportedProf Pat Price said the government would miss the target because the NHS lacks enough staff or equipment, and said the lack of leadership meant thousands more could die without timely treatment.UK news | The Guardian: “The government is going to miss its cancer treatment target because the NHS does not have enough staff or equipment to treat the number of patients coming through its doors. This lack of leadership means thousands more people could die because they don’t get their treatment on time.”
- SupportedThe reported on-time treatment rates were 70.1% for prostate cancer, 68.8% for breast cancer, 60.9% for lung cancer, 60% for gynaecological cancers and 56.5% for head and neck cancers.UK news | The Guardian: “70.1% and 68.8% respectively), only 60.9% of those with lung cancer and 60% of those with gynaecological cancers were treated on time. For head and neck cancers, barely half (56.5%) were.”
- SupportedThe Midlands had the lowest regional proportion treated on time, at 66.6%, compared with 77.3% in London.UK news | The Guardian: “The Midlands had the lowest proportion treated on time, at 66.6%, compared with 77.3% in London.”
- SupportedMark Lawler said the system was being held together by “goodwill glue alone” and that lack of leadership was derailing efforts to improve cancer survival.UK news | The Guardian: “The whole system is being held together by goodwill glue alone. Lack of leadership is derailing efforts to improve cancer survival.”
- SupportedCancer Research UK found that 55.4% of patients with cancer were diagnosed within 28 days of urgent referral over the last year, against an 80% target.UK news | The Guardian: “over the last year, barely half (55.4%) of patients with cancer were diagnosed within 28 days of an urgent referral, against the faster diagnostic standard target of 80%”
- Partly supportedNaser Turabi said hospital capacity was not keeping pace with surging demand and that urgent referrals had risen about 20% over four years.UK news | The Guardian: “hospital capacity was not able to keep pace with surging demand for cancer diagnosis – with urgent referrals in England up about 20% over the past four years alone.”
- SupportedDr Stephen Harden said chronic shortages of clinical radiologists and clinical oncologists were driving dangerous delays, and that NHS hiring freezes for these doctors had doubled in the last year.UK news | The Guardian: ““chronic shortages” of clinical radiologists and clinical oncologists, who diagnose, monitor and treat cancer, were “driving dangerous delays” in diagnosing and treating the disease. “Perversely, NHS hiring freezes for these doctors have doubled in the last year”
- SupportedThe Department of Health and Social Care said all three cancer standards were better than a year earlier and its national cancer plan would help people be diagnosed earlier and begin treatment sooner.UK news | The Guardian: “Cancer waiting times are moving in the right direction, with all three cancer standards better than a year ago”
