Three years on from the October 7, 2023 attacks and the start of the war in Gaza, the Middle East has been fundamentally redrawn by conflict. The balance of power has shattered, with Iran's regional network severely weakened, Israel increasingly isolated from its traditional allies, and the United States engaged in an open war with Tehran, according to an analysis.
Three years after the October 7 attacks and the start of Israel's subsequent military campaign in Gaza, the wider region has been marked by conflict, economic turmoil, and a shattering of the balance of power, according to an analysis by Al Jazeera. The network of alliances maintained by Iran, long central to its regional power, has been severely weakened. Yemen's Houthi rebels remain one notable exception.
Israel has made tactical gains. Many of the leaders of the Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas have been killed, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was also assassinated in February. However, this military aggression has come at a significant cost, isolating Israel from its traditional allies and making it globally unpopular, including in the United States. The potential for further normalisation deals with Arab states under the Abraham Accords seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, Israel continues to launch attacks across the region, crossing previously held red lines such as the 2025 attack on Doha, Qatar, leading many governments to view it as the primary source of unrest in the Middle East.
Rather than a stable Middle East with Israel at its centre, the US entered into a war with Iran this year. HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute said that before October 7, the US policy in the Middle East rested on normalising Israel's presence through the Abraham Accords, and that Israel's response to the October 7 attack ended that. Tehran has targeted US allies across the Gulf, with drones and missiles hitting Qatar's Ras Laffan gas hub and starting fires near Dubai airport, shattering the perceived security of the US security umbrella.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The strategic map of the Middle East has been rewritten, directly impacting global energy security and critical shipping lanes.
- The US security guarantee for Gulf states has been severely tested, altering the calculations of every government in the region.
- The collapse of normalisation efforts with Israel closes a major diplomatic avenue for regional stability.
Background
The October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel triggered a massive military campaign in Gaza that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians according to the report. The conflict rapidly metastasised into a wider regional war involving Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, ultimately drawing the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran. The pre-war diplomatic framework, centred on the Abraham Accords normalising Israeli ties with Arab states, has collapsed.
Key Perspectives
[Israel]: Views its military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran as necessary for existential security, achieving significant tactical victories by eliminating key leaders across the region.
[Iran]: Has seen its strategic depth and proxy network severely degraded, but has demonstrated its ability to strike US allies directly, challenging the American security umbrella in the Gulf.
[Gulf States]: Find themselves caught in a direct conflict between Iran and the US, facing attacks on critical infrastructure such as Qatar's gas hub and Dubai International Airport, losing faith in traditional security guarantees.
[Critics/Skeptics]: Argue that Israel's overwhelming military response has turned it into a regional pariah, alienated its allies, and failed to produce a sustainable strategic outcome, instead creating a broader, more unstable conflict across the Middle East.
What to Watch
- The trajectory of the US-Iran conflict and whether it escalates further across the Gulf.
- The Houthi position in Yemen, identified as a notable remaining element of Iran's network.
- Any revival or formal burial of normalisation talks between Israel and Arab states.
- Energy market volatility as major production and export facilities in the Gulf face direct threats.