Oil hits five-month high as fears grow of US strikes on Iran

Brent crude rises 1% to $114.72 amid threats of escalation

By LineZotpaper

Published23 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources2 outlets

Oil prices have climbed to their highest level in more than five months, with Brent crude rising 1 per cent on Friday to $114.72 a barrel, as concerns mount over a possible renewed US-Israeli attack on Iran and continued disruption in the Middle East.

The increase extends a period of volatility in energy markets that began with the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year. Crude was trading at around $72 a barrel in February before soaring to a peak of $126 in April. The current rally follows reports that Washington is considering renewed military strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, rather than pursuing diplomatic solutions.

“Widespread reports that the US is considering renewed military strikes on Iran after the midterm elections rather than pursuing a diplomatic route was enough for the price to pop, after what many had considered would be a brief conflict is now in its eighth month,” said Richard Hunter, an analyst at Interactive Investor.

Tehran has warned it would respond to any new attack by striking oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI infrastructure in the Gulf region. The threat compounds existing risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed to have struck four commercial ships on Wednesday.

The Houthi rebel group in Yemen has also intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Ukraine’s bombardment of Russian diesel refineries is adding to supply concerns, according to Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club. “The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s facilities by Houthi rebels have intensified this week, and for ships attempting to cross the strait of Hormuz, it’s still a dangerous journey, with projectiles still being fired,” she said. The US State Department has ordered some diplomats and families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia as a precaution.

The combination of military threats and damage to refining capacity has left markets on edge, with traders eyeing the US midterm elections as a potential trigger for the next phase of escalation.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Rising oil prices feed inflation and increase costs for households and businesses globally.
An escalation in the Gulf could disrupt a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies.
Investors and policymakers are watching for any sign that conflict will widen further.

Background

The Iran war broke out in early 2026, pushing crude from $72 to $126 a barrel by April. Although prices moderated in the following months, tensions have persisted. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has become a flashpoint with recent attacks on shipping and threats to infrastructure.

Key Perspectives

Iran: Has warned it will strike critical infrastructure if attacked, signalling willingness to escalate. US/Israel: Are reported to be considering strikes after the midterms, but have not publicly confirmed plans. Market analysts: See a fragile situation where any military action could cause another price spike, though diplomatic efforts could ease tensions.

What to Watch

The outcome of US midterm elections on 3 November and whether the administration pursues military action.
Any further attacks on ships or energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.
Next week’s trading sessions to see if oil prices break above $120 or retreat.

Sources

Oil hits five-month high amid fears US will renew strikes on Iran · Business | The Guardian
Oil hits five-month high amid fears US will renew strikes on Iran · World news | The Guardian

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 5 supported.

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SupportedOil has reached its highest level in more than five months as fears grow of renewed US strikes on Iran.Business | The Guardian: “Oil has hit its highest level in more than five months as fears of fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict grip the energy markets.”
SupportedBrent rose 1% on Friday to $114.72 a barrel.Business | The Guardian: “Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose by 1% on Friday morning to $114.72 a barrel”
SupportedRichard Hunter said widespread reports of possible renewed US strikes after the midterm elections, rather than diplomacy, were enough to make the price rise.Business | The Guardian: ““Widespread reports that the US is considering renewed military strikes on Iran after the midterm elections rather than pursuing a diplomatic route was enough for the price to pop, after what many had considered would be a brief conflict is now in its eighth month,” said Richard Hunter at the broker Interactive Investor.”
Partly supportedHunter is identified as an analyst at Interactive Investor.Business | The Guardian: “said Richard Hunter at the broker Interactive Investor.”
Partly supportedCrude was around $72 a barrel in February before reaching a peak of $126 in April.Business | The Guardian: “Oil had traded at about $72 a barrel back in February, before the Iran war began, but soared to $126 a barrel by the end of April.”
Partly supportedTehran warned it would strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI infrastructure in the Gulf in response to any new attack.Business | The Guardian: “The increase came after Tehran said it would strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities in the Gulf region if a new US-Israeli attack was launched against Iran.”
SupportedIran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed to have struck four commercial ships on Wednesday.Business | The Guardian: “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed to have struck four commercial ships in the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.”
SupportedStreeter said attacks on Saudi facilities by Houthi rebels had intensified that week and crossing the Strait of Hormuz remained dangerous, with projectiles still being fired.Business | The Guardian: ““At the same time, the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s facilities by Houthi rebels have intensified this week, and for ships attempting to cross the strait of Hormuz, it’s still a dangerous journey, with projectiles still being fired,” she said.”
Partly supportedThe US State Department ordered some diplomats and families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia as a precaution.Business | The Guardian: “The US state department ordered some diplomats and the families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia”
Partly supportedThe combination of military threats and damage to refining capacity has left markets on edge.Business | The Guardian: “Streeter said Ukraine’s bombardment of Russian diesel refineries was also adding to supply concerns.”
Not in the sourcesTraders are eyeing the US midterm elections as a potential trigger for the next phase of escalation.Business | The Guardian: “Widespread reports that the US is considering renewed military strikes on Iran after the midterm elections rather than pursuing a diplomatic route was enough for the price to pop”