President Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran, stating, "We seem to be getting everything we want." Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that the two sides had "certainly made some progress." However, Trump also suggested a "heavy hit" on Iran was possible, while Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed, without independent confirmation, that four tankers had been destroyed by mines south of the Strait of Hormuz.
A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its demands, including lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen assets. ING said markets had increasingly priced in further hostilities.
Democrats' victory in both houses of Congress in Tuesday's midterms could constrain war funding, analysts said. Kpler's Michelle Brouhard noted that the new Congress will not be seated until January 3, leaving the administration nearly two months to act. Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva said profit-taking and reduced speculative long positions were justified after October's rally.
JPMorgan estimated the global oil market's surplus at 1.4 million barrels per day in October, up from 1.1 million in September, and said Middle East exports had recovered to about 20.7 million barrels per day from a March low of 9.8 million. JPMorgan said demand had fallen 3.3 million barrels per day since the war began. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 5.27 million-barrel U.S. crude draw against an expected build, indicating continued inventory decline. The EIA's official figures are due later.