Almost 6,000 households across 10 Western Australian suburbs are at risk of falling behind on their mortgage repayments in the next year, new data shows. The report follows the fifth interest rate hike of the year, from 4.6 to 4.85 per cent, the highest in 18 years. The announcement will add about $100 a month to repayments on a 30-year $600,000 mortgage.
The Digital Finance Analytics Q3 2026 Mortgage Default Risk Report assessed the risk of a missed payment that flags a loan as out of order. It found default risk in Western Australia rose 26.4 per cent over the year and 7.3 per cent during the quarter, the second-highest statewide increase nationally behind South Australia.
Mandurah recorded 966 at-risk households, the largest count in WA and the second-largest nationally, though the postcode recorded no reading in June. Canning Vale saw the sharpest quarterly jump in default risk at 31 per cent, rising from 343 to 448 households. Armadale recorded 805 households at risk.
Mansour Soltani, head of research at finance and property research platform OurTop10, said there was a direct correlation between the company's Mortgage Stress Report and the default data. Soltani said mortgage stress is when more money goes out than a household earns and it relies on things such as credit cards for groceries. In Canning Vale, six out of 10 households fit this description. He said the 10 suburbs were also listed in the Mortgage Stress Report as areas where households were in the “most dire positions”. Soltani said the latest rate hike would increase mortgage stress, creating an increase in either defaults or properties hitting the market, which would have a negative effect on pricing because more stock would be available. “I think we're we're going to be continually expecting these numbers to get worse, at least over the next two to three quarters,” he said.
The data assumes household incomes and interest rates remain unchanged for the next 12 months.
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At-risk households in selected WA suburbs, according to Digital Finance Analytics
households
Source: Digital Finance Analytics Q3 2026 Mortgage Default Risk Report
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The cumulative burden of sustained interest rate rises is directly reflected in household vulnerability data from WA.
A rise in defaults or forced sales could shift the property market balance, potentially easing prices for buyers while creating losses for struggling sellers.
The report provides an early metric for the real-world financial pressure being applied by the rate cycle.
Background
Interest rates in Australia have risen steadily through 2026, with the latest hike taking the rate to 4.85 per cent. Mortgage stress is conventionally measured as spending 30 per cent of household income on repayments, but the OurTop10 methodology counts households outspending their earnings and falling back on credit as experiencing stress.
What to Watch
The impact of the November rate hike on the next quarterly default risk and mortgage stress reports.
Whether rising defaults in WA foreshadow a broader trend across Australian housing markets.
Potential shifts in housing stock and prices in the 10 identified high-risk suburbs.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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SupportedThe quoted forecast is attributed to Mansour Soltani and says the numbers are expected to worsen over the next two to three quarters.WA Today - Latest News: “I think we’re we’re going to be continually expecting these numbers to get worse, at least over the next two to three quarters.”
SupportedMortgage default risk in WA is rising.WA Today - Latest News: “Mortgage default risk – the risk of a missed payment that flags the loan with the lender as out of order – has risen 26.4 per cent over the past year in WA”
SupportedAlmost 6,000 households across 10 WA suburbs are at risk of falling behind on mortgage repayments in the next year.WA Today - Latest News: “Almost 6000 households across 10 West Australian suburbs are at risk of falling behind on their mortgage repayments in the next year, new data shows.”
SupportedThe report follows the fifth interest rate hike of the year, from 4.6 to 4.85 per cent, the highest in 18 years.WA Today - Latest News: “Digital Finance Analytics’ Q3 2026 Mortgage Default Risk Report follows the fifth interest rate hike of the year , from 4.6 per cent to 4.85 per cent – the highest in 18 years.”
SupportedThe announcement will add about $100 a month to repayments on a 30-year, $600,000 mortgage.WA Today - Latest News: “That announcement will add about $100 a month to repayments on a 30-year $600,000 mortgage.”
SupportedWA default risk rose 26.4 per cent over the year and 7.3 per cent during the quarter, the second-highest statewide increase nationally behind South Australia.WA Today - Latest News: “has risen 26.4 per cent over the past year in WA according to the data, and by 7.3 per cent for the quarter. It’s the second-highest increase nationally behind South Australia.”
SupportedMandurah had 966 at-risk households, the largest count in WA and second-largest nationally, but the postcode had no June reading.WA Today - Latest News: “Mandurah recorded 966 at-risk households, the largest count in WA and the second-largest nationally, but the postcode recorded no reading in June”
SupportedCanning Vale had the sharpest quarterly increase in risk, at 31 per cent, rising from 343 to 448 at-risk households.WA Today - Latest News: “Canning Vale recorded a 31 per cent risk increase in just three months – the sharpest quarterly increase – from 343 to 448 households at risk of falling behind on repayments in the next 12 months.”
SupportedArmadale had 805 households at risk.WA Today - Latest News: “Armadale was a close second with 805 households now at risk.”
SupportedSoltani said there was a direct correlation between OurTop10’s Mortgage Stress Report and the mortgage-default data.WA Today - Latest News: “Mansour Soltani, the head of research at finance and property research platform OurTop10, said there was a direct correlation between the company’s Mortgage Stress Report for the quarter and mortgage default risk.”
SupportedSoltani said six out of 10 Canning Vale households are in mortgage stress.WA Today - Latest News: “If I have a look at Canning Vale, six out of 10 households are in mortgage stress”
SupportedSoltani said the latest rate hike would increase mortgage stress, leading to more defaults or properties hitting the market and negatively affecting prices because more stock would be available.WA Today - Latest News: “We’re going to see an increase in mortgage stress, which is going to create an increase in either defaults or properties hitting the market, which are going to have a negative effect on pricing because there’s going to be more stock available”