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One Nation's shadow hangs over Victorian election as Liberal brand seeks revival

State contest shaping up as a proxy war with national consequences for both major parties

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
With fewer than 50 days until Victorians cast their votes, the state election is shaping up as a proxy war with national consequences, as One Nation's rising influence collides with the Liberal Party's identity crisis and Labor's fight to convince voters it offers change.

Political strategists from both major parties believe a Liberal majority is possible, though polling suggests it will be hard. Party strategists see Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson as the answer to the party's national problem: how to win back heartland seats and appeal to frustrated Labor voters.

Wilson is being cast as a return to traditional small-l liberal values, focused on the economy rather than culture wars. Her campaign is also being watched for another reason. Former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat in the teal wave, could use it as a soft launch for a tilt back to Canberra.

The contest is operating on two levels, the macro and the subterranean, and is becoming a proxy war on several fronts that are nationally significant. At the Conservative Political Action Conference in Brisbane over the weekend, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson upstaged federal Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, who played second fiddle to her. Whether Hanson brings her campaign to Victoria, and what that means for a daily three-way contest between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, looms over both camps.

Premier Ben Carroll's primary opponent is Labor. He must convince voters he offers something different from the government he helped run. Labor has a habit of handing the leadership to a woman when the party is on its last legs: Joan Kirner in Victoria, Kristina Keneally in New South Wales, and Jacinta Allan, whose leadership was overshadowed by Daniel Andrews.

Taylor is still searching for his alternative offer: part Hansonism, part agrarian conservatism with an Oxford pedigree. For most voters, however, the basics will decide their vote: potholes, housing, hospitals and the cost of living.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The Victorian result will test whether the Liberal brand can be rebuilt around small-l liberal values or whether the party keeps ceding ground to One Nation.
  • A strong Wilson campaign could reshape the federal Liberal leadership contest and give Josh Frydenberg a launchpad for a return to Canberra.
  • The three-way contest between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation could reset how all parties campaign at the next federal election.

Background

Victoria has been governed by Labor for more than a decade, most recently under Daniel Andrews, Jacinta Allan and now Ben Carroll. The state election is due within weeks, and both major parties see it as a test case for their national fortunes. The Liberal Party has been struggling with an identity crisis since the teal wave cost it heartland seats, caught between its moderate wing and the pull of One Nation's anti-establishment appeal.

Key Perspectives

Liberal strategists: Wilson offers a path back for the brand, with a focus on the economy, potholes, housing, hospitals and cost of living rather than culture wars. Labor and Premier Ben Carroll: Carroll must distance himself from the government he helped run and convince disgruntled voters that he is listening to their concerns. One Nation: Pauline Hanson's star power at CPAC showed she can outdraw the federal Opposition Leader. A Victorian campaign push would squeeze the Coalition's primary vote. Critics and sceptics: Polling suggests a Liberal majority is hard to achieve, and Labor strategists believe the seat count is still within reach. The Liberal Party's wider identity crisis remains unresolved.

What to Watch

  • Whether Pauline Hanson campaigns in Victoria and where One Nation directs its preferences.
  • Movement in the Liberal primary vote and whether two-party preferred polls narrow in the final weeks.
  • Whether Josh Frydenberg appears on the hustings with Wilson, signalling a federal comeback.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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