Pacific Islands Forum divided over China's missile test and Taiwan presence

The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting in Palau is concluding amid sharp disagreements over how to respond to China's recent ballistic missile test, which saw a submarine-launched projectile travel more than 7,000 kilometres into the Pacific, landing just outside Tuvalu's Exclusive Economic Zone.

Australia and Palau are leading efforts to issue a clear condemnation of the test, but Kiribati and Naoero (formerly Nauru) have refused to back a joint statement, arguing it would be unfair to single out China when the United States also conducts missile tests in the region.

Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau told his parliament last month that his country had registered concerns with Beijing but questioned the double standard, saying 'America has been bombing, and testing its bombs … in the Marshall Islands, islands near us, and why don't we ask questions or criticise America?'

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese rejected that comparison, telling journalists in Palau that 'the situations are very different' because the US gives proper notice and has an agreement with the Marshall Islands, whereas China's test was conducted 'with very little notice … with no respect for those nations.'

Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr, the region's most vocal China critic, also dismissed the comparison, asking, 'What about the rest of us in the Pacific? Don't we deserve the same?' He suggested China deliberately chose a trajectory deep into the South Pacific to be disruptive.

Compounding tensions, China's special envoy to the PIF warned that Taiwan's participation in the meeting was 'very inappropriate' and that 'there will always be consequences.' Taiwan and China are both attending after all external partners were excluded in 2025. Australia has pushed back against this warning.

No Pacific country switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2026, but analysts say Beijing's pressure campaign has been more systematic and intense than in previous years, focusing on securing ongoing rhetorical affirmations of the One China principle from governments, political parties, and institutions across the region.

Why This Matters

The divisions within the Pacific Islands Forum weaken the region's ability to present a unified stance on security and sovereignty issues, potentially emboldening China to continue its assertive military activities in the Pacific.
For Pacific island nations, the missile test directly threatens their territorial waters and exclusive economic zones, raising questions about their ability to protect their sovereignty without external support.
The dispute could strain relationships between Pacific nations and their traditional partners (Australia, New Zealand, US) while deepening reliance on Chinese infrastructure and aid, creating long-term geopolitical realignments.

Background

The Pacific Islands Forum is the region's premier political and economic intergovernmental organization, comprising 18 member states. The meeting in Palau marks the return of external partners after they were excluded from the 2025 summit. The issue of Taiwan's participation is a perennial flashpoint: China maintains that Taiwan is part of its territory under the 'One China' principle, while Taiwan asserts its sovereignty. China has historically pressured countries to switch recognition from Taipei to Beijing, and recently intensified efforts to limit Taiwan's international space even after such switches occur. The missile test in question occurred in recent weeks, when a Chinese submarine in the South China Sea fired a ballistic missile deep into the Pacific, landing near Tuvalu and Naoero. US missile tests are conducted under a longstanding agreement with the Republic of the Marshall Islands, which includes notification and compensation.

Key Perspectives

Australia and Palau: Arguing that China's missile test was conducted without proper notice or respect for Pacific nations' sovereign rights, and that a clear condemnation is necessary to deter future incidents. They view the US testing arrangement as fundamentally different because it is conducted under bilateral agreement with notification. Kiribati and Naoero: Resisting a single-condemnation approach, arguing it is hypocritical to criticize China's test while US tests continue in the Marshall Islands. They advocate for a more balanced posture that treats all major powers equally. China: Maintaining that Taiwan's participation in the PIF is inappropriate under the One China principle, and warning of unspecified 'consequences' for host nations. Beijing has engaged with Pacific political parties, such as Fiji's People's Alliance Party, to secure institutional backing for its position.

What to Watch

Whether the PIF leaders can agree on a communique that includes strong language on China's missile test, or whether continued divisions produce only a watered-down reference as seen at the Foreign Ministers Meeting.
How Pacific nations that have recently switched recognition to China (like Naoero) balance their new relationships with traditional allies' expectations.
Whether China follows through on its warning of 'consequences' for Palau or other nations hosting Taiwan, potentially through aid delays, trade restrictions, or diplomatic pressure.

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