Perth’s median dwelling price has dropped 5.7 per cent over the past three months, falling nearly $100,000 from its April peak, as Commonwealth Bank economists forecast a total decline of 18 per cent from that high before prices stabilise in the second half of 2027.
New figures from property research group Cotality show Perth’s median dwelling price has fallen to $942,018, down from more than $1 million in April. The data has buoyed single mother Vanessa Bray, who has been searching for a family home since separating from her partner four years ago. “I can't even begin to describe the relief that I feel for myself and my kids that we could maybe have a home of our own,” she said. “It's close. I feel like it will happen instead of the despair that I had that it was never going to happen.” Ms Bray needs to find a home within her children’s school catchment and under the $850,000 cap for the federal government’s Help to Buy Scheme. She described her experience as “devastating” and like being on a “rollercoaster”.
Despite the recent slump, Perth property prices have risen 93 per cent over the past decade, including 68 per cent in the last five years. Real estate agent Kyle Peters warned that optimism among those trying to enter the market could be premature. “It would be an interesting anomaly that a housing market would crash when we have a housing crisis and don't have enough houses for people to live in,” he said. “At the rate things were ramping up before, there needed to be some abatement, but certainly we [still] have a housing shortage.”
REIWA president Rob Mandanici said the slowing market provided benefits for those entering the market even if prices did not continue falling at the same rate. “They can take a little bit more time to make that purchasing decision and not feel that immense pressure to rush into a decision,” he said. “The buyers themselves haven't disappeared, they've become more selective.” Mr Mandanici said Australia was experiencing “a little bit of a market slowdown” but said the dip in prices did not amount to a crash. He noted that many buyers were sitting on the sidelines and said he thought the Reserve Bank’s decision on Tuesday to lift the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest since 2008, would give buyers the certainty they wanted.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- First-time buyers and low-income families may find the market more accessible after years of rapid price growth
- An 18 per cent drop from peak would represent major losses for recent buyers and investors
- The Reserve Bank rate increase to 4.85 per cent adds further pressure on mortgage holders and could deepen the downturn
Background
Perth property prices soared 93 per cent over the last decade, including 68 per cent in the last five years, making it one of the country’s hottest markets. The current downturn comes as the Reserve Bank continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Tuesday’s increase of 0.25 percentage points lifted the cash rate to its highest level since 2008.
Key Perspectives
Vanessa Bray (prospective buyer): Feels relief and hope that she may finally afford a home for herself and her sons.
Kyle Peters (Perth realtor): Warns the recent figures may not reflect the true market and that a crash is unlikely given the housing shortage.
Rob Mandanici (REIWA president): Says the slowdown gives buyers breathing room to make more considered decisions without feeling rushed.
What to Watch
- Whether the Commonwealth Bank’s 18 per cent forecast materialises or the market stabilises sooner
- How the RBA’s rate decision on Tuesday and any further rate moves affect buyer confidence and mortgage stress
- Auction clearance rates and days on market in Perth over the coming months as indicators of the downturn’s depth
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- Partly supportedPerth’s median dwelling price fell 5.7% over three months.Just In: “Perth's house prices dropping 5.7 per cent over the last three months.”
- SupportedCommonwealth Bank economists forecast Perth prices to fall 18% from the April peak before stabilising in the second half of 2027.Just In: “economists at the Commonwealth Bank today released an updated forecast predicting Perth property prices would plummet 18 per cent from that April peak, before prices begin to stabilise in the second half of 2027.”
- SupportedVanessa Bray feels relief at the easing market and said, “I can't even begin to describe the relief that I feel for myself and my kids that we could maybe have a home of our own.”Just In: “"I can't even begin to describe the relief that I feel for myself and my kids that we could maybe have a home of our own," she said.”
- SupportedKyle Peters warned that optimism among people trying to enter the market could be premature.Just In: “Perth realtor Kyle Peters warned the optimism of those trying to enter the market could be premature.”
- SupportedCotality data put Perth’s median dwelling price at $942,018.Just In: “Data from property research group Cotality shows Perth's median dwelling price has fallen to $942,018”
- SupportedThe price was nearly $100,000 below its April peak of more than $1 million.Just In: “a drop of nearly $100,000 since peaking at more than $1 million in April.”
- SupportedBray said, “It's close. I feel like it will happen instead of the despair that I had that it was never going to happen.”Just In: “"It's close. I feel like it will happen instead of the despair that I had that it was never going to happen."”
- SupportedBray needs to find a home in her children’s school catchment and under the $850,000 Help to Buy Scheme cap.Just In: “She needs to find something in their school catchment while staying under the $850,000 cap needed to qualify for the federal government's Help to Buy Scheme.”
- SupportedPerth property prices have risen 93% in a decade, including 68% in the past five years.Just In: “Perth's property prices, which have risen 93 per cent in a decade, including 68 per cent in the last five years.”
- SupportedPeters said, “It would be an interesting anomaly that a housing market would crash when we have a housing crisis and don't have enough houses for people to live in.”Just In: “"It would be an interesting anomaly that a housing market would crash when we have a housing crisis and don't have enough houses for people to live in," Mr Peters said.”
- SupportedMandanici said buyers could take more time to decide and had become more selective.Just In: “"They can take a little bit more time to make that purchasing decision and not feel that immense pressure to rush into a decision," he said. "The buyers themselves haven't disappeared, they've become more selective."”
- SupportedOn Tuesday, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008.Just In: “On Tuesday the Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, lifting the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest it has been since 2008.”