Polls show Becerra ahead as California voters choose between liberal experience and conservative change

The contest to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom is one of the most consequential on the ballot, with Hilton representing the Republican Party's best hope in years in a state where no Republican has won statewide office in nearly two decades and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans almost two to one.

Hilton, a British American and former Fox News host who once advised former British Prime Minister David Cameron, has raised more than $33 million to Becerra's $38 million and is running on promises to cut the cost of living by slashing regulations, taxes and the gas tax. "It's the people against the machine," he said of his campaign in a virtual town hall last week. The message resonated with Brad Gerig, a 34-year-old EMT and firefighter in Roseville who said he was voting Republican for the first time so he could afford to stay and raise a family in California. "I think it's worth a shot," Gerig said. "There's no reason it should be as expensive as it is."

Hilton has struggled to shed the weight of President Donald Trump's endorsement in a state the president lost by 20 percentage points in 2024. Becerra has reminded voters of the link at every turn and casts himself as a fighter who would, like Newsom, challenge decisions from Washington such as the administration's deportation campaign. At an event in San Francisco last week he touted his opposition to Trump without naming his opponent once: “Donald Trump is on this ballot. We see right through you, Donald Trump. And we see through all those MAGA friends and relatives who are trying to push that agenda on us.” Tony Hoang, executive director of the LGBTQ+ rights group Equality California, said Becerra “has stood with us for more than 30 years,” citing his 1996 vote against the Defense of Marriage Act. Becerra's comfortable standing showed in a muted campaign: he agreed to only one debate with Hilton this fall and spent much of his time campaigning against a Republican-backed voter ID measure and for other California Democrats.

The election comes at a delicate time for California. Street homelessness, which rose for years, only began to decline again in 2025. Wildfires have made homeowners insurance harder to buy, and inflation, much of it attributed to the Trump administration's war in Iran, tariffs and immigration crackdown, has raised the cost of living. The state budget has grown especially dependent on the fortunes of the artificial intelligence industry, and the administration has withheld federal funds, challenged the state's environmental policies and attempted to intervene in the race.

The candidates agree the state has become unaffordable for working families, and little else. Becerra, who has dismissed Hilton as unserious, offers mostly incremental change: continuing efforts to reduce bureaucratic hurdles to housing construction, expanding state mortgage assistance, and wanting the state to assess a fee on corporations whose employees earn little enough to qualify for public healthcare. He has not endorsed new taxes on residents and says he is committed to the clean energy transition but open to delays or tweaks to cut costs. Hilton promises to slash environmental rules, allow more home construction on undeveloped exurban land and eliminate the income tax on residents' first $150,000 in earnings, with a flat rate above that, which he says he would pay for through spending cuts. The tax plan, like several of his promises, would need legislative approval, and he has not said how he would get Democrats in the Capitol to support them.