California voters will decide the fate of Proposition 38, a ballot measure that would provide $8.4 billion in bonds for immunology research. The measure has drawn endorsements from Governor Gavin Newsom and both major parties, while opponents say it is poorly written.
The proceeds from the bond, expected to cost $12 billion with interest, would go to California’s public and nonprofit health laboratories. However, half of the money is reserved for one unnamed institute. CalMatters found that the only institute in California currently meeting the criteria is the California Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy (CIII), an organisation primarily funded by billionaire Gary K. Michelson, who wrote the measure and was by far its largest donor. Backers of Prop. 38 had raised $72 million as of October 26, against $12,000 raised by opponents.
Backers argue a California-only health research fund is essential as the Trump administration seeks to pull federal science funding from California and elsewhere. They say the bond spending would pay for itself, pointing to the provision that 10% of revenue generated from research would go to the state and that cures funded by the measure must be sold to California residents at 20% less than the average national price. Cancer survivor Andrew Dale spoke for the measure, saying delays could cost patients time they do not have. The California Democratic Party and state GOP, along with dozens of patient and research advocacy groups and the University of California union of graduate students and post-doctoral researchers, have endorsed Prop. 38.
Opponents say the measure is poorly written and lacks transparency, and fault it for limiting which other researchers can receive the other half of the funding. Eisen said revenue from research would need to exceed $120 billion after 20 years for California to recoup its investment, a prospect he called remarkably hard to achieve. Bookheimer said other major science funding initiatives penalize applicants who lack the necessary staff and equipment when they submit applications.
The California Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy signed an affiliation agreement with UCLA in 2024. Its five-year business plan and budget projected spending more than $200 million on personnel and construction by mid-2026. It was supposed to employ an additional 90 employees, including leading scientists, by next summer. CalMatters reported that the institute had only three employees as of September; a senior UCLA official said in September that it had spent closer to $20 million. A poll last week indicated that 57% of likely voters backed Prop. 38, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome will test whether voters support states filling gaps in federal science funding, a model that could be replicated elsewhere.
- It raises questions about the influence of private wealth on public policy, as the measure was drafted by and primarily benefits its largest backer's institution.
- If successful, the pricing and royalty mechanisms could create a new framework for ensuring public returns on publicly funded research.
Background
While Prop. 38 is a targeted measure, the California Legislature and Governor Newsom have already approved a broader $7.5 billion science research bond that will appear on the March 2028 ballot, covering areas from biomedical research to wildfire prevention and water supply.
Key Perspectives
Supporters (including Governor Gavin Newsom, the California Democratic and Republican parties, and cancer survivor Andrew Dale): The bond is essential to maintain health research funding against federal cuts, and provisions for revenue sharing and price discounts protect the state.
Opponents (including UC Davis biologist Jonathan Eisen and UCLA researcher Dr Susan Bookheimer): The revenue projections are unrealistic, the measure lacks transparency, and directing half the funds to a single institute undermines competitive science.
What to Watch
- The final vote tally on Prop. 38, with recent polling showing strong support.
- The March 2028 election, which will include the broader $7.5 billion science research bond.
- The operational and hiring trajectory of CIII regardless of the measure's outcome.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedProposition 38 would provide $8.4 billion in bonds for health research.CalMatters: “Proposition 38 would provide $8.4 billion to California’s public and nonprofit health laboratories to find cures for the diseases affecting the immune system.”
- SupportedGovernor Gavin Newsom endorsed Proposition 38.CalMatters: “Gov. Gavin Newsom and the California Democratic Party endorsed Prop. 38.”
- SupportedOpponents questioned Proposition 38’s transparency.CalMatters: “Opponents say the measure is poorly written, lacks transparency and seems to heavily benefit one particular nonprofit.”
- SupportedThe measure would fund immunology research targeting Alzheimer’s and cancer.CalMatters: “Your November ballot includes billions of dollars in proposed bonds, including money for immunology research in an effort to find cures for Alzheimer’s, cancer, heart disease and other ailments.”
- SupportedHalf of the bond money would go to one unnamed institute.CalMatters: “Half the money would go to one unnamed research institute meeting specific requirements.”
- SupportedCalMatters found that the California Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy was the only California institute then meeting the criteria.CalMatters: “Reporting by CalMatters found only one institute in California currently meets those criteria: the California Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy.”
- SupportedGary K. Michelson was the institute’s primary funder, wrote Proposition 38 and was its largest donor.CalMatters: “The institute’s primary funder was billionaire Gary K. Michelson, who wrote Prop. 38 and was by far the largest donor to its political campaign.”
- SupportedThe bond is expected to cost $12 billion with interest.CalMatters: “The bond is expected to cost a total of $12 billion with interest”
- SupportedThe California Democratic Party and the state GOP endorsed Proposition 38.CalMatters: “Gov. Gavin Newsom and the California Democratic Party endorsed Prop. 38. So has the state’s GOP”
- SupportedBackers had raised $72 million, compared with $12,000 raised by opponents, as of October 26.CalMatters: “Backers of Prop. 38 outraised the no camp $72 million to $12,000 as of Oct. 26.”
- SupportedRevenue from bond-funded research would need to exceed $120 billion after 20 years for California to recoup its investment, and Eisen called that remarkably hard to achieve.CalMatters: “Revenue from research funded by the bond would need to exceed $120 billion after 20 years for California to recoup its investment. “It is remarkably hard to do”
- SupportedThe institute had only three employees as of September.CalMatters: “Additional reporting by CalMatters shows that the California institute had only three employees as of September”
