RBA deputy signals November rate rise is on the cards as markets lift hike odds

Hauser plays down jobs data 'noise', while NextDC cuts guidance on power delay

By LineZotpaper

Published20 October 2026

Updated21 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Sources3 outlets

RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser has signalled another interest rate rise is firmly on the table for November 3, telling a Sydney conference that some further easing in the jobs market may be needed to bring inflation sustainably below 3 per cent. Financial markets responded by pricing the chance of a hike to 4.85 per cent at above 40 per cent, up from around 30 per cent in recent days.

The comments came during a "fireside chat" at the Citi Investment Conference in Sydney, where Mr Hauser acknowledged the central bank's rate rises have been "laying pain on top of pain". Asked about the recent ABS unemployment data, which showed the jobless rate rising to 4.7 per cent, above the 4.5 per cent the RBA had forecast for the end of the year, Mr Hauser said: "There is potential, Michael, that there's some noise in that number. That said, it clearly was a little weaker than we and others have been expecting."

He repeated comments by RBA governor Michele Bullock that some further easing in the jobs market may be required for inflation to fall sustainably back below 3 per cent. "We need to see some easing in the economy, whether it goes to 5, whether it goes to some other number, that's a debate we have in the context of our forecasts at the moment, and you'll see answers to that in a week or two," he said, referring to the Statement on Monetary Policy due with the November 3 decision.

Mr Hauser also said the exchange rate, rather than the "cashflow channel" of higher rates, could account for up to two-thirds of the effects of interest rate moves, though simultaneous hikes by other central banks were blunting that effect.

ABC business reporter Michael Janda described a November hike as "very much a 50-50 proposition", noting the September decision to lift the cash rate to 4.6 per cent was unanimous. Markets, however, moved pricing above 40 per cent.

Separately, data centre operator NextDC downgraded its revenue and earnings guidance, blaming delays in getting power to its M3 Melbourne data centre. Energy distributor Jemena advised NextDC it suspended parts of the works because of community and stakeholder opposition, pushing the next increase in grid supply to the 2028 financial year and deferring a Victorian government planning decision until after the state election in late November. Chief executive Craig Scroggie said the affected M3 contracts had been removed from FY27 guidance "until we can reliably estimate their contribution".

At the same conference, Citi's head of global macro strategy Dirk Willer said he was "in the bubble camp" on stocks, arguing no-one wants to get off the train too early, and likening the current environment to the 1999/2000 tech bubble, which was pricked by a rapid withdrawal of US Federal Reserve liquidity once the Y2K bug proved not to be a major issue.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Households with mortgages: a move to 4.85% would extend the squeeze on disposable incomes.
The RBA's dual mandate is being tested: inflation versus employment, with unemployment already above forecast.
NextDC's setback shows infrastructure constraints that could slow data centre growth.

Background

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.6 per cent at the end of September, a decision that was unanimous across the board. Deputy governor Andrew Hauser's comments precede the board's next meeting on November 3, when the Statement on Monetary Policy will also be released. The bank has argued that the labour market needs to ease to bring inflation durably below 3%. Former board member Ian Harper has stressed the employment leg of the dual mandate, while current member Iain Ross has argued second-round inflation effects via wages are unlikely given workers' limited bargaining power.

Key Perspectives

RBA officials: Inflation remains the focus, and some labour market easing is expected, with the exact level to be decided in forecasts. Financial markets: Pricing for a hike to 4.85% jumped above 40%, but ABC analysis calls it a 50-50 proposition. Board voices: Former member Ian Harper emphasises employment; current member Iain Ross sees limited wage-driven inflation risk. NextDC management: Affected M3 contracts stay out of guidance until contributions can be reliably estimated; the delay follows community opposition to Jemena's power works.

What to Watch

The RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy on November 3 at 2:30pm AEDT.
The next unemployment print and whether the 4.7% reading is revised or confirmed.
The Victorian government's planning decision on M3's next stages, deferred until after the late November state election.

Sources

Live: RBA deputy acknowledges rate rises 'laying pain on top of pain' · Just In
Odds of fifth interest rate hike this year likely to shorten as RBA deputy warns inflation outlook ‘worsening’ · World news | The Guardian
Odds of fifth interest rate hike this year likely to shorten as RBA deputy warns inflation outlook ‘worsening’ · Business | The Guardian

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedHauser signalled that a November rate rise was firmly on the table.Just In: “My general impression from RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser's “fireside chat” is that another interest rate rise is very much on the cards for November 3.”
Partly supportedHauser played down the jobs data as “noise”.Just In: ““There is potential, Michael, that there's some noise in that number,” he responded. “That said, it clearly was a little weaker than we and others have been expecting.””
Partly supportedMarket pricing for a November rate rise to 4.85 per cent rose above 40 per cent, from around 30 per cent in recent days.Just In: “Reuters analysis now has market pricing for a November rate hike to 4.85% above 40% , where it has been hovering around 30% over recent days.”
SupportedHauser said there was potential for some noise in the unemployment figure.Just In: ““There is potential, Michael, that there's some noise in that number,” he responded.”
SupportedThe unemployment rate was 4.7 per cent, above the RBA’s 4.5 per cent forecast for the end of the year.Just In: “I asked the RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser whether he believed the recent ABS unemployment data, which showed the jobless rate rising to 4.7%, which is already above the 4.5% the RBA forecast Australia would hit by the end of the year.”
SupportedHauser acknowledged that rate rises were “laying pain on top of pain”.Just In: “He acknowledges the rate rises “are laying pain on top of pain””
SupportedHauser said some easing in the economy was needed, though whether it reached 5 or another number remained a debate.Just In: ““We need to see some easing in the economy, whether it goes to 5, whether it goes to some other number, that's a debate we have in the context of our forecasts at the moment, and you'll see answers to that in a week or two.””
SupportedHauser said the exchange-rate channel could account for up to two-thirds of the effects of interest-rate moves, while other central banks’ hikes were blunting that effect.Just In: “He says some research shows this channel could account for as much as two-thirds of the effects of interest rate moves. However, all other things aren't equal when it comes to the effect of interest rates on exchange rates. That's because other central banks are now also raising their rates, blunting the exchange rate effect of RBA moves.”
SupportedNextDC downgraded its revenue and earnings guidance because of a delay in getting power to its M3 Melbourne data centre.Just In: “Data centre operator NextDC has downgraded its revenue and earnings guidance, as it faces a hit from the delay in getting power to a Melbourne data centre.”
SupportedJemena suspended parts of its works because of community and stakeholder opposition.Just In: ““Jemena has advised NextDC that it has suspended parts of those works because of community and stakeholder opposition,” it said.”
SupportedNextDC chief executive Craig Scroggie said the affected M3 contracts had been removed from FY27 guidance until their contribution could be reliably estimated.Just In: ““We have taken the affected M3 contracts out of our FY27 guidance until we can reliably estimate their contribution,” chief executive Craig Scroggie said.”
SupportedCiti’s Dirk Willer said he was “in the bubble camp” on stocks.Just In: “Citi's head of global macro strategy and asset allocation Dirk Willer says he is “in the bubble camp” when it comes to stocks.”