Nearly half of US voters now identify as politically independent, a record number that could prove decisive in Tuesday's midterm elections for Congress and state legislatures. While many self-described independents lean toward a major party, a small but persuadable bloc of true swing voters and some independent candidates could affect individual races.
According to the Pew Research Center's annual survey, 44 percent of US adults identify as independents, compared with 29 percent as Democrats and 28 percent as Republicans. "2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest election cycles for independent candidates in recent memory," political scientist AJ Simmons told the source.
However, the two-party structure remains a powerful gravitational pull. Marist polling cited in the article shows 52 percent of likely independent voters back Democrats while 39 percent support Republicans. Independent candidates rarely win federal or statewide office.
The independent candidates who do emerge face steep obstacles. "The whole [electoral] system is built to frustrate the independence of voters," said Rick Bennett, the former Republican Party chair in Maine who is running as an independent for governor. Political scientist Bernard Tamas points to money as the real barrier, noting that the US "offers virtually no public support" to parties and does not set limits on campaign spending.
Voters, too, are reluctant to cast what they see as a "wasted" ballot. Republican strategist Lesley Shedd said many self-described independents are functionally aligned with a major party but dislike Washington's political culture. A fear of supporting a potential spoiler further cements the two-party dynamic.
Simmons identified independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska as the “most likely alternative candidate to win” nationwide. The Nebraska Democratic Party chose not to field a replacement nominee after its candidate withdrew, leaving Osborn as the principal challenger to Republican Pete Ricketts. In Montana, Seth Bodnar, a former university president, is running for Senate against Republican Kurt Alme. Democrat Alani Bankhead is also in the race, potentially splitting the centre-left and anti-Republican vote. Simmons said Montana was the second most likely, while the race is complicated by the possibility of an unpredictable “spoiler” effect.
In Idaho and South Dakota, independent candidates are not forecast to win but are expected to make Republicans pay for treating those seats as safe, diverting money and campaign time to races Republicans may otherwise have taken for granted.
The Independent Leadership Council, launched by Senator Joe Manchin, has raised more than $10m to support independent congressional candidates, including Bodnar and California congressman Kevin Kiley. Analysts quoted in the source maintain the longer-term test is whether independent candidates can be viable across multiple races and election cycles.
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Share of US adults identifying with each political party
percent
Source: Pew Research Center
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The record number of independent voters could be decisive in the fight for control of the US Congress, which analysts identify as evenly divided.
The performance of independent candidates will test whether the political system is structurally open to a break from the two-party duopoly.
Discontent with President Donald Trump is a major force pulling voters away from traditional party allegiances, with independent voters three times as likely as others to say their vote is a protest against the president.
Background
The Democratic and Republican parties have dominated US politics for generations. The winner-take-all electoral system and single-member congressional districts historically work against outsiders. Independent candidates rarely win federal or state office, even as a record number of voters reject major party labels.
Key Perspectives
Political Scientist AJ Simmons: 2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest election cycles for independent candidates in recent memory, though they still struggle to achieve a high level of support.
Independent Candidate Rick Bennett: The whole electoral system is built to frustrate the independence of voters.
Political Scientist Bernard Tamas: The real barrier is money, not legal obstacles, as the US offers virtually no public support to parties.
Republican Strategist Lesley Shedd: Many self-identified independents are functionally aligned with a party but simply dislike the political culture of Washington.
What to Watch
The results in Nebraska and Montana, where independent candidates have the strongest chance of winning or acting as a spoiler in key Senate races.
The performance of the Independent Leadership Council, which is trying to build a lasting funding infrastructure for independent candidates.
The vote shares of independent candidates in safe seats like Idaho and South Dakota, signalling the strength of anti-system sentiment.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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SupportedRecord numbers of independent voters could prove decisive in the midterms.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “the record number of voters identifying as independent could prove decisive for control of the US Congress and state legislatures”
SupportedThe elections are on Tuesday and concern Congress and state legislatures.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in the much-anticipated midterms , the record number of voters identifying as independent could prove decisive for control of the US Congress and state legislatures”
SupportedA small bloc of true independents is persuadable and forms part of the swing vote.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “These “true” independents are sought after by candidates because they are persuadable, the core of the coveted so-called swing vote”
SupportedPew’s annual survey found 44 percent of US adults identify as independent, 29 percent as Democrat and 28 percent as Republican.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “44 percent of US adults identify as politically independent. This is in contrast to 29 percent who identify as Democrat and 28 percent as Republican.”
Partly supportedAJ Simmons said, “2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest election cycles for independent candidates in recent memory.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest election cycles for independent candidates in recent memory.””
SupportedMarist polling shows 52 percent of likely independent voters support Democrats and 39 percent support Republicans.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “In the 2026 midterm elections, 52 percent of likely independent voters are supporting Democrats, while 39 percent back Republicans, polling firm Marist suggests.”
SupportedBennett said, “The whole [electoral] system is built to frustrate the independence of voters,” and is a former Republican Party chair in Maine running for governor.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““The whole [electoral] system is built to frustrate the independence of voters,” says Rick Bennett, the former Republican Party chair in Maine, where he is running to become only the third independent governor in the state’s history.”
SupportedTamas identified money as the real barrier and said the US “offers virtually no public support” to political parties and sets no limits on campaign spending.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “The real barrier, he says, is money.”
SupportedSimmons identified Dan Osborn as the “most likely alternative candidate to win” nationwide, and Nebraska Democrats did not field a replacement after their candidate withdrew.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “He identified Nebraska’s independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn ... as the “most likely alternative candidate to win” across the country”
SupportedThe Independent Leadership Council has raised more than $10m and supports independent congressional candidates including Bodnar and Kevin Kiley.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “The project has raised more than $10m.”