US President Donald Trump spent the final weekend before Tuesday's midterm elections rallying in states once considered reliably Republican, as polls suggested Democrats had a good chance of gaining at least partial control of Congress. The president sought to shift the conversation from voter frustration over the rising cost of living to attacks on Democratic positions on immigration and social policies.
Trump told supporters he had transformed the country, saying Democrats had left the US in a “dark age” but under his command, “we quickly turned it into the golden age of America”. He said that if Democrats were given power they would “open the border”, “bankrupt your family” and “take away your guns”.
The final push comes as midterm elections, which typically see the party in the White House lose seats, will determine control of Congress. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in both the House and Senate. Losing any seats would hinder Republicans’ ability to pass laws and shape policies.
A Harvard University forecasting tool cited by the BBC suggests Democrats have a 96% chance of taking the House and a 76% chance of winning the Senate. A national NBC News poll published over the weekend found registered voters preferred a Democrat-controlled Congress by 52% to 45%. Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries said he was “very confident” his party was on course to win the House.
The weekend also featured a dramatic turn in the Michigan Senate race, where sitting congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers, a move Trump praised as “very brave”. In Alaska, a judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit seeking to delay certification of election results if the Republican incumbent loses, over two candidates appearing on the ballot with the same name. Trump and his administration have repeatedly cast doubt on the credibility of the vote, despite evidence showing voter fraud is rare.
The stakes are high for Trump, as the midterm results are seen as a measure of public satisfaction with his performance.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome will determine whether Donald Trump faces a Congress that can act as a check on his power for the final two years of his term.
- Voter frustration over rising prices, particularly fuel and groceries, is the central issue, making this a direct test of the administration's economic stewardship.
- The results will shape the political dynamics and strategies for the 2028 presidential election.
Background
The US midterms, held two years into a presidential term, are historically difficult for the party in power. President Trump's Republican Party controls both chambers by slim margins. The campaign has been dominated by high inflation partly linked by the source to the war in Iran, crime, and immigration.
Key Perspectives
Donald Trump: argues he has delivered a "golden age" and that Democrats would pursue radical policies on the border, the economy, and social issues, urging a Republican vote to stop them.
Hakeem Jeffries and Democrats: express confidence in winning the House, citing voter anger over costs and the potential for investigative oversight powers.
Polls (NBC/Harvard): indicate a significant national lead for Democrats in congressional preference and a high probability of Democrats flipping control of Congress.
Some Republicans: express quiet concern that Trump's aggressive, fear-based appeal may alienate moderate voters, even as it energises the base.
What to Watch
- Whether the Democratic defector endorsement in Michigan shifts the calculus in a closely watched Senate race.
- If legal challenges to election administration in states like Alaska signal a broader post-election strategy by the Trump administration.
- The margin of victory in the House races, which will determine how aggressively Democrats can pursue investigations if they win control.
Checked
11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedTrump made a final campaign push in the weekend before the election.BBC News: “In the last weekend before the pivotal midterm elections, Donald Trump has made a final pitch to voters in hopes of keeping Republicans in control of the US Congress.”
- SupportedDemocrats had a good chance of making midterm gains, including gaining at least partial control of Congress.BBC News: “Polls suggest that Democrats have a good chance at winning at least partial control of Congress”
- SupportedPolls suggested a Democratic advantage, and Trump sought to shift attention from cost-of-living concerns to attacks on Democrats’ positions on immigration and social issues.BBC News: “At rallies in Florida and Iowa, he highlighted his policies on trade and immigration and said if Democrats were given power, they would "open the border", "bankrupt your family", "take away your guns" and "mutilate your children". He played video montages of Democrats criticising ICE and supporting transgender rights.”
- SupportedTrump rallied in states once considered reliably Republican during the final weekend before the Tuesday election.BBC News: “In previous years, Trump easily won Florida, Iowa and Kansas - once considered reliably Republican states - but the president's visits there in the final days of his election drive highlighted just how competitive these states have become in determining control of Congress.”
- SupportedTrump said Democrats had left the US in a “dark age” and that under his command “we quickly turned it into the golden age of America”.BBC News: “Trump told supporters he had transformed the country, saying Democrats had left the US in a "dark age" but under his command, "we quickly turned it into the golden age of America".”
- SupportedTrump said Democrats would “open the border”, “bankrupt your family” and “take away your guns”.BBC News: “At rallies in Florida and Iowa, he highlighted his policies on trade and immigration and said if Democrats were given power, they would "open the border", "bankrupt your family", "take away your guns" and "mutilate your children".”
- SupportedA Harvard University forecasting tool gave Democrats a 96% chance of taking the House and a 76% chance of taking the Senate.BBC News: “A forecasting tool from Harvard University that analyses and compiles multiple polls and historical data suggests that Democrats have a 96% chance of taking the House and a 76% chance of taking the Senate.”
- SupportedAn NBC News poll found registered voters preferred a Democrat-controlled Congress 52% to 45%.BBC News: “A national poll from NBC News posted this weekend suggests that registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress by a 7-point margin, leading Republicans 52% to 45%.”
- SupportedHakeem Jeffries said he was “very confident” his party was on course to win the House.BBC News: “Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries said this weekend that he was "very confident" his party was on course to win control of the House of Representatives”
- SupportedHaley Stevens endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers, and Trump called her “very brave”.BBC News: “Haley Stevens, a sitting congresswoman who lost the Democratic Senate nomination to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers on Sunday. The move led to widespread condemnation from fellow Democrats and praise from Republicans, including Trump who called her "very brave".”
- SupportedAn Alaska judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit seeking to delay certification of election results if the Republican incumbent loses, over two candidates with the same name appearing on the ballot.BBC News: “In Alaska, home to another crucial Senate race, a judge on Sunday dismissed an attempt by the Trump administration to delay certifying election results if the Republican incumbent candidate loses due to two candidates appearing on the ballot with the same name.”