Tuesday 15 September 2026
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Russia's Rassvet satellite constellation suffers second setback as entire batch fails to reach orbit

None of the 16 satellites launched in June reached their target altitude of 870 km, with two already re-entering the atmosphere

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By LineZotpaper
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Russia's homegrown alternative to Starlink, the Rassvet satellite constellation, has hit another major hurdle after the entire second batch of 16 satellites failed to reach their operational altitude, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing data from satellite tracker N2YO. Many of the satellites ended up at altitudes between 300 and 400 kilometres, well short of the 870 km target, and two are already experiencing orbital decay and falling back to Earth.

The setback is a significant blow to Russia's ambitions to build a sovereign satellite internet network, accelerated after access to Elon Musk's Starlink was cut off for Russian users through a new whitelist system. The Rassvet constellation, developed by private aerospace company Bureau 1440, is intended to eventually consist of 900 satellites by 2035, with commercial operations initially planned to begin next year.

This is the second major failure for the project. The first batch of 16 satellites launched in March also underperformed: the ISW now reports that only 12 of them reached their anticipated altitudes. One satellite from that batch, designated 'Object 4', had already dropped out of orbit in June. Operating at lower altitudes reduces the satellites' lifespans, as they require more fuel for station-keeping.

According to the ISW, Russia would need at least 200 to 300 fully operational Rassvet satellites to achieve stable 24/7 connectivity over Ukraine. Currently, the constellation offers only two windows of up to 90 minutes of connectivity per day over Ukraine. The report also notes that Ukraine's military planners are likely to have Russian satellite production and launch facilities on their targeting lists.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Russia's inability to deploy a reliable satellite internet alternative weakens its military communications and coordination in Ukraine, where Starlink has been a critical asset for Ukrainian forces.
  • The repeated launch failures raise questions about the technical capability and quality control of Russia's private space sector, with implications for other planned satellite projects.
  • The Rassvet delays prolong Russia's dependence on vulnerable terrestrial networks, which are easier targets for Ukrainian strikes.

Background

Russia has been racing to build its own satellite internet constellation since Starlink became unavailable to Russian users. The Rassvet project, run by Bureau 1440, represents a state-backed effort to close the gap with Western commercial space capabilities. The first 16 satellites launched in March 2026, followed by a second batch in June. The project aims for 900 satellites by 2035, but the technical challenges of deploying and maintaining a low-Earth-orbit constellation are proving formidable.

Key Perspectives

Russia (Bureau 1440/Kremlin): The project is seen as strategically vital for military communications and national sovereignty. The failures may be attributed to teething problems, with officials likely to emphasise the long-term goal of 900 satellites. Ukraine and Western observers: The failures are a welcome development, as they hinder Russia's ability to coordinate forces and target Ukrainian positions. The ISW report suggests Ukraine may actively target the production and launch infrastructure. Critics/Skeptics: The repeated failures indicate systemic issues in Russia's space industry, including quality control, funding, and sanctions impact on component supply. Meeting the 2035 target appears increasingly unrealistic.

What to Watch

  • Whether any of the second-batch satellites can be boosted to higher orbits using onboard propulsion, or if all will be lost.
  • The timing of the next Rassvet launch, and whether Russia announces design changes or delays commercial service.
  • Any confirmed Ukrainian strikes on satellite production or launch facilities in Russia.

Sources

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Articles published under the Zotpaper byline are synthesized from multiple source publications by our AI editor and reviewed by our editorial process. Each story combines reporting from credible outlets to give readers a balanced, comprehensive view.

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