Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, satellite imagery taken in November suggests. Analysts at British intelligence company MAIAR, who reviewed the photos, told BBC Verify that evidence of digging and new buildings is visible at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, near Tehran, and at the Shahroud base in the north.
At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, appear to show signs of repairs. New roofs have been built on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the border with Iraq, while damaged buildings and debris have been cleared at the Parchin military complex east of the capital.
Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the US could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections held earlier this week. Vice-President JD Vance cited the war's unpopularity with voters for the Republicans' poor performance in the poll, saying it may have cost his party control of the Senate "for the next 6 years". The developments follow repeated White House assurances that the US-Israeli attacks have depleted Iran's armed forces, which President Donald Trump dismissed as a "complete and total mess". A Pentagon spokesperson previously said the US had "destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base" and "significantly degraded" the country's ability to launch drone and missile attacks.
Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran, said the excavations near Shahroud could potentially be related to the production of missiles. He said that because the nearby air base has been targeted multiple times in recent years, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is probably trying to find ways to move its production facilities underground. A MAIAR analyst said Iran has "a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes". Mark Mellett, a defence analyst and former head of the Irish military, said the construction of underground facilities had the added benefit of making it "harder for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status".
The images from Karaj appear to show "a new portal for an underground facility", said Sam Lair, a research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Multiple vehicles were visible at the site, while improvements appear to have been carried out to the nearby airbase. Sean O'Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes, said the construction is unlikely to be part of an effort to deceive foreign intelligence agencies. He said such a project "would be costly and may achieve little".
At the Parchin complex, analysts said significant construction appears to have been completed at the Taleghan 2 facility, with damaged buildings levelled and the aftermath of attacks on an underground bunker repaired and reinforced with concrete. A MAIAR analyst also identified new construction and excavations outside tunnel entrances near the city of Qom, close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which has been bombed by both the US and Israel multiple times.
Iran claims it retains large stockpiles of missiles, and footage broadcast on state TV this week claimed to show dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran. In August, state TV footage claimed to show Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging from a tunnel near the southern city of Bandar Abbas.
Mark Cancian, a military analyst with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said activity related to military assets would show Tehran is bracing itself for further attacks by the US and Israel. "The purpose is to better defend itself against future attacks," he said. "It also indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The imagery suggests Iran is preserving and rebuilding the missile capability the US and Israel say they have degraded, keeping the military confrontation open.
- Analysts read the work as preparation for further strikes, and speculation has mounted that Washington could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections.
- The priority given to rebuilding military infrastructure points to Tehran's assessment that the war is not over.
Background
Iran has for years developed ballistic missiles and buried military and nuclear facilities in tunnels and underground complexes to protect them from air attack. The current destruction follows months of US and Israeli air strikes, which Washington says largely destroyed Iran's drone and missile industrial base, a claim Tehran disputes by pointing to surviving stockpiles.
Key Perspectives
MAIAR analysts: say the imagery fits Iran's "pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes".
Jim Lamson, former CIA analyst: says the Shahroud excavations could potentially be related to missile production, with the IRGC probably trying to move production underground after the nearby air base was repeatedly targeted.
Sean O'Connor (Janes): says the construction is unlikely to be a deception operation, arguing it "would be costly and may achieve little".
Mark Cancian (CSIS): says Tehran is bracing for further attacks, with the purpose "to better defend itself against future attacks" rather than to rehabilitate the economy.
Pentagon: previously said the US had "destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base".
Iranian state media: this week claimed footage showed dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran.
What to Watch
- Whether the US resumes attacks on Iran after this week's midterm elections, a possibility that has driven speculation in recent weeks.
- Further satellite imagery of Karaj, Shahroud, Parchin and Qom, and whether the new construction develops into working tunnel complexes for missile production.
- How Washington responds to evidence of rebuilding, after repeated official claims that Iran's forces have been depleted.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedMajor construction is ongoing near Iran missile bases.BBC News: “Major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggest.”
- SupportedAn analyst said Shahroud excavations could be related to missile production.BBC News: “The excavations near Shahroud could potentially be related to the production of missiles, said Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran.”
- SupportedSatellite imagery taken in November suggests significant new construction near at least two major missile sites and repairs to bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes.BBC News: “Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, analysis of satellite images suggests.”
- SupportedAt least 12 other military sites appear to show signs of repairs.BBC News: “At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, appear to show signs of repairs.”
- SupportedVance said the war's unpopularity with voters may have cost Republicans control of the Senate “for the next 6 years”.BBC News: “Vice-President JD Vance cited the war's unpopularity with voters for the Republicans' poor performance in this week's poll, saying that it may have cost his party control of the Senate "for the next 6 years".”
- SupportedTrump dismissed assurances that US-Israeli attacks had depleted Iran's armed forces as a “complete and total mess”.BBC News: “The developments come after repeated assurances from the White House that US-Israeli attacks have depleted the Iranian armed forces, which US President Donald Trump dismissed as a "complete and total mess".”
- SupportedA Pentagon spokesperson said the US had “destroyed up to 90%” of Iran's drone, ballistic missile and naval industrial base.BBC News: “A Pentagon spokesperson previously said that the US had "destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base"”
- SupportedA MAIAR analyst said Iran has “a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes”.BBC News: “A MAIAR analyst noted that Iran has "a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes".”
- SupportedMellett said underground facilities make it “harder for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status”.BBC News: “Mark Mellett, a defence analyst and former head of the Irish military, said the construction of underground facilities had the added benefit of making it "harder for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status".”
- SupportedLair said the Karaj images appear to show “a new portal for an underground facility”.BBC News: “The images from Karaj appear to show "a new portal for an underground facility", says Sam Lair, research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)”
- SupportedO'Connor said a project to deceive foreign intelligence agencies “would be costly and may achieve little”.BBC News: “The construction work is unlikely to be part of an effort to deceive foreign intelligence agencies, said Sean O'Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes. He said such a project "would be costly and may achieve little".”
- SupportedCancian said the purpose of the activity is to better defend Iran against future attacks and indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy.BBC News: “"The purpose is to better defend itself against future attacks," he said. "It also indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy."”