Saudi state oil company Aramco reported a jump in third-quarter net profit to $3.25bn despite attacks on its facilities, as Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel after the US reportedly launched limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, while Australia’s central bank lifted interest rates for the fifth time this year to their highest level in 18 years.
Aramco’s net profit of $3.25bn in the three months to September compared with $26.9bn a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday. The US-Israeli war on Iran has reduced Aramco’s output, but higher oil prices offset the impact. Brent crude rose $2.38 to $107.15 a barrel, a 2.2% gain, following the reported US strikes late on Monday. (Before the war, which started on 28 February, Brent traded around $72 a barrel.)
Amin H. Nasser, Aramco’s president and chief executive, said: “Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global energy supply crisis in the third quarter of 2026, with serious implications for global energy security. Despite challenges, the unwavering dedication of our workforce, our operational excellence, the flexibility of our system, and the strength of a supply network built over decades enabled us to continue delivering reliably to our customers through this extraordinary period. We continue to explore additional overseas storage capacity and alternative export routes to further strengthen our global supply network, and our robust operational and financial performance during this volatile period demonstrates the value of our resilience.”
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, the highest level in 18 years, in its fifth hike this year. Governor Michele Bullock said it was “not the news that many Australians want to hear” but would prevent “even worse pain down the track”. She said it was unclear what the next move in rates will be, adding that three dissenting members stressed downside risks such as the weakening housing market and rising unemployment. Bullock said it is an appropriate time to pause and assess how the economy is responding to the rate rises, but cautioned that “there is still a bit of a skew on the upside to inflation risks, and we need to be alert to those materialising”. Updated forecasts show headline inflation hitting 4.5% in the fourth quarter, before easing back to the target range of 2% to 3% in the second half of next year. Unemployment is forecast to rise above 5% in the next couple of years.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Aramco's profit and oil price rise reflect the ongoing impact of geopolitical conflict on global energy markets and consumer costs
- RBA’s fifth rate hike this year signals continued monetary tightening to combat inflation, with implications for mortgages, business borrowing and the broader Australian economy
- Stock market declines following US strikes on Iran underscore investor sensitivity to conflict escalation and peace-prospect setbacks
Background
The US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February 2026 and has disrupted global oil supplies, pushing Brent crude from around $72 a barrel pre-war to over $107 as of Tuesday. The RBA has been raising rates through 2026 to bring inflation back to its 2%–3% target, balancing inflation control against weakening housing and rising unemployment.
Key Perspectives
- Amin H. Nasser (Aramco president and CEO): Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on key energy facilities have amplified the global energy supply crisis, but Aramco's operational resilience and investments in alternative export routes have maintained reliable customer deliveries.
- Michele Bullock (RBA governor): The rate hike is necessary to prevent worse pain, but the board is at an appropriate point to pause and assess economic responses; inflation risks remain skewed to the upside.
- Ipek Ozkardeskaya (senior analyst, Swissquote): Higher energy prices would strengthen the case for further monetary tightening by the Fed and other major central banks.
- Dissenting RBA board members: Emphasised downside risks from the weakening housing market and rising unemployment.
What to Watch
- Whether Brent crude holds above $107 or escalates further after additional US strikes or Iranian retaliation
- RBA’s next decision in December: whether the 6-3 vote opens a path to a pause or a further hike
- Impact on consumer confidence and spending as Australian households face the highest cash rate in 18 years
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- Partly supportedAramco’s profit jumped despite attacks on its facilities.Business | The Guardian: “The Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco has reported that profits rose by more than a third in the latest quarter despite attacks on its facilities. The world’s top oil exporter posted a net profit of $3.25bn in the three months to September, compared with $26.9bn a year earlier.”
- SupportedThe RBA raised rates to an 18-year high.Business | The Guardian: “Australia’s central bank has lifted interest rates for the fifth time this year, taking them to the highest level in 18 years. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s board raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%”
- SupportedAramco’s quarterly net profit was $3.25bn, compared with $26.9bn a year earlier.Business | The Guardian: “The world’s top oil exporter posted a net profit of $3.25bn in the three months to September, compared with $26.9bn a year earlier.”
- SupportedBrent crude rose above $107 a barrel after reported US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.Business | The Guardian: “This morning, Brent crude climbed $2.38 a barrel to $107.15 a barrel, a 2.2% gain, after the US reportedly launched limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island late on Monday.”
- SupportedThe US-Israeli war on Iran reduced Aramco’s output, while higher oil prices offset the impact.Business | The Guardian: “The US-Israeli war on Iran has reduced Aramco’s output, but this has been offset by higher oil prices.”
- SupportedAmin H. Nasser said: “Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global energy supply crisis in the third quarter of 2026, with serious implications for global energy security.”Business | The Guardian: “Amin H. Nasser , Aramco’s president and chief executive, said: “Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global energy supply crisis in the third quarter of 2026, with serious implications for global energy security.”
- SupportedNasser’s full quoted statement about the workforce, operational flexibility, supply network, storage capacity and resilience matches the source.Business | The Guardian: “Despite challenges, the unwavering dedication of our workforce, our operational excellence, the flexibility of our system, and the strength of a supply network built over decades enabled us to continue delivering reliably to our customers”
- SupportedBullock said the rate rise was “not the news that many Australians want to hear” but would prevent “even worse pain down the track”.Business | The Guardian: “Michele Bullock , the governor, said it was “not the news that many Australians want to hear”, but it would prevent “even worse pain down the track”.”
- SupportedBullock said the next move in rates was unclear and that three dissenting members highlighted downside risks, including a weakening housing market and rising unemployment.Business | The Guardian: “She said it was unclear what the next move in rates will be, adding that the three dissenting members stressed downside risks such as the weakening housing market and rising unemployment.”
- SupportedBullock said it was an appropriate time to pause and assess the economy’s response to rate rises, while warning of an upside skew in inflation risks.Business | The Guardian: “After five rate hikes this year, she said it is an appropriate time to pause and assess how the economy is responding to the rate rises, but cautioned that “there is still a bit of a skew on the upside to inflation risks, and we need to be alert to those materialising.””
- SupportedThe RBA’s updated forecasts put headline inflation at 4.5% in the fourth quarter, then back in the 2%–3% target range in the second half of next year.Business | The Guardian: “Updated forecasts from the central bank show headline inflation hitting 4.5% in the fourth quarter, before easing back to the target range of 2% to 3% in the second half of next year.”
- SupportedUnemployment is forecast to rise above 5% in the next couple of years.Business | The Guardian: “Unemployment is forecast to rise above 5% in the next couple of years.”
