Scalise Defies Gloom as GOP Faces House Wipeout Fears

House Majority Leader refuses to plan for defeat, even as allies pull advertising from key races.

By LineZotpaper

Published20 October 2026

Read Time2 min

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is publicly refusing to entertain the possibility of losing the House majority, despite polling that shows Democrats leading the generic ballot by eight points and President Trump's approval at a record low. Scalise argues that his presence in competitive districts is evidence Republicans are still on offense, even as outside GOP allies pull nearly $1 million in advertising from one such race.

At a campaign event for Republican Marty O'Donnell in Nevada last week, Scalise told supporters the race against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is winnable, asking: 'If it's some horrible cycle for Republicans, then why am I here?'

But shortly before that appearance, the super PAC MAGA Inc., which is allied with President Trump, pulled nearly $1 million in advertising from the race. The move added to signs that Republicans are struggling against a difficult political environment, with new polling showing 72% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.

Scalise, who campaigned in Arizona and Nevada last week, identified 35 competitive districts, including 15 Democratic-held seats, and pointed to races by Reps. Mike Lawler, Juan Ciscomani, Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie as bellwethers.

To boost his members, the pro-Scalise super PAC Save American Freedom is launching a $3.5 million get-out-the-vote and digital advertising blitz benefiting 52 House Republicans, including Reps. Brad Finstad, Mike Carey and Rob Wittman, along with candidates Ralph Alvarado, Alex Mealer and Jenny Costa Honeycutt.

Scalise suggested that the pullback in some districts may actually help members by shifting airtime to Senate races, such as in Iowa where Senate Republican ads will also benefit House candidates. He noted that similar moves may occur in North Carolina and Texas, where he acknowledged 'challenges' at the top of the ticket.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson has said he intends to remain the top House Republican even if Democrats win the majority, setting up a potential three-way fight among Johnson, Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan. Scalise repeatedly declined to say whether he would endorse Johnson or consider running himself, stating: 'Anybody who's thinking about planning for us losing is in the wrong business.'

Analysis

Why This Matters

The House majority is critical for advancing the Republican agenda or blocking Democratic priorities over the next two years.
Scalise's refusal to plan for defeat could affect morale and resource allocation within the party.
A potential leadership battle if Republicans lose the House could further divide the party.

Background

Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the incumbent president, and President Trump's approval ratings have been historically low. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, and several polls show Democrats with an edge on the generic ballot. The party is defending many seats in districts that Democrats consider competitive, with some outside groups already shifting resources to Senate races.

Key Perspectives

Steve Scalise: Optimistic that Republicans can hold the majority. He argues that his active campaigning in competitive districts demonstrates the party is still on offense, and he points to the benefit of shared ad buys between House and Senate races. MAGA Inc. and other GOP allies: By pulling advertising from races like O'Donnell vs. Lee, they signal doubts about the party's chances in certain districts, prioritizing Senate contests instead. Speaker Mike Johnson: Preparing for the possibility of being minority leader, publicly stating he intends to remain the top House Republican, which could spark a leadership contest.

What to Watch

The bellwether races of Reps. Lawler, Ciscomani, Bresnahan and Mackenzie as early indicators on election night.
Trump's approval ratings and the number of campaign stops he makes in the final weeks.
Whether more outside groups shift funds from House to Senate races, and the effect on competitive districts.

Sources

Inside the GOP's fight to avoid a House wipeout · Axios