Campaigning enters its final day with control of the US Senate at stake in several races, as President Donald Trump returns to the trail in Iowa and Kansas and court cases address election certification in Alaska and ballot counting in California.
The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections. Historic polling collated by Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.
Texas is home to the most expensive US Senate race ever, with combined advertising spending topping $US500 million ($711 million). North America correspondent Kamin Gock reports that Republican candidate Ken Paxton, who has President Trump's endorsement, has been plagued by scandals. He was impeached by his own party over bribery allegations but later acquitted, and his wife accused him of adultery and filed for divorce. His Democratic challenger, James Talarico, has tried to seize on Elon Musk's $US158 million contribution to a group backing Paxton, arguing Musk wants his own senator to control in Congress. Polling appears to be tightening between the two candidates.
In Alaska, a federal judge has thrown out a Trump administration lawsuit that sought to block the state from certifying election results if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan lost. The race is complicated by a second candidate sharing the same name, which President Trump says is part of a ploy to confuse voters. Polls suggest Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is leading.
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has warned federal judges that the Trump administration may try to block the certification of Democratic wins. The administration argues the state may have thousands of non-citizens on its voter rolls. A federal judge rejected a Department of Justice request to block the counting of over 20,000 ballots on these grounds, and the administration has signalled it will likely ask the Supreme Court to take up the case. An outside analysis found many of the names collated by the Department of Homeland Security did not appear to match anyone on the rolls.
In the Michigan Senate race, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens endorsed the Republican candidate over her party colleague Abdul El-Sayed, who beat her in the primary. Stevens was reportedly uninvited from a party unity event after she called on El-Sayed to condemn an ad from an outside group that she said blamed Israel for high grocery prices.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome will determine control of the Senate and the pace of President Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years.
- The legal battles over certification in Alaska and California set important precedents for how future elections could be disputed.
- A Democratic win in Texas would represent a major political realignment in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
Background
The 2026 midterm elections are being held at the midpoint of President Donald Trump's second term. The president's party traditionally loses seats in Congress during midterms, and Republicans are currently defending a narrow Senate majority.
Key Perspectives
President Donald Trump: campaigned for Republicans in Iowa and Kansas while his administration pursued challenges to election certification in Alaska and California.
Governor Gavin Newsom: warned judges that the Trump administration may try to block the certification of Democratic wins in California.
North America correspondent Kamin Gock: reported that the Texas race is the most expensive in US history, with Republican candidate Ken Paxton facing a tight race despite Trump's endorsement.
What to Watch
- Whether the Supreme Court agrees to hear the California ballot case before or after the election.
- The outcome in Alaska, where a unique ballot situation could split the vote.
- The final result in the Texas Senate race, a key bellwether for the national mood.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedSenate control hangs in the balance.Just In: “The race, in which polls suggest Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is leading, could be one of the deciding factors in whether Republicans can defend their control of the Senate.”
- SupportedTexas, Alaska and Michigan enter the final day with control of the chamber at stake.Just In: “We're now just one day out from election day.”
- SupportedTrump is back on the campaign trail with rallies in Iowa and Kansas.Just In: “The president is back on the campaign trail now, with rallies in Iowa and Kansas, where Republicans are fighting to retain US Senate seats.”
- SupportedPresidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.Just In: “Historic polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.”
- SupportedTexas is home to the most expensive US Senate race ever.Just In: “This is the most expensive US Senate race ever .”
- SupportedCombined advertising spending in the Texas race has topped US$500 million.Just In: “Financial tracking shows combined advertising spending has topped $US500 million ($711 million).”
- SupportedPaxton was impeached by his own party over bribery allegations and later acquitted.Just In: “He was impeached by his own party over bribery allegations but later acquitted”
- SupportedElon Musk gave US$158 million to a group backing Paxton.Just In: “Elon Musk, a Texas resident with major business interests in the state, gave $US158 million to a group backing Paxton”
- SupportedTalarico argued that Musk wanted his own senator to control in Congress.Just In: “Talarico has tried to seize on this, arguing Musk wants his own senator to control in Congress.”
- SupportedA federal judge threw out the Trump administration's lawsuit seeking to block Alaska from certifying results if Dan Sullivan lost.Just In: “A federal judge has thrown out a lawsuit filed by the Trump administration that sought to block Alaska from certifying election results if Republican senator Dan Sullivan lost.”
- Partly supportedNewsom warned federal judges that the Trump administration may try to block certification of Democratic wins.Just In: “California Governor Gavin Newsom has warned federal judges in his state that Trump may try to block the certification of Democratic wins.”
- SupportedA federal judge rejected a DOJ request to block the counting of more than 20,000 ballots on these grounds.Just In: “A federal judge has rejected a Department of Justice request to block the counting of more than 20,000 ballots on these grounds”