Six indicators to watch on US midterm election night
OPB's Domenico Montanaro points to early House returns in Indiana, Kentucky and Florida, the Republican share of independents and turnout in Detroit's Wayne County as signals of how the night may go
With control of Congress at stake in the US midterm elections, OPB's Domenico Montanaro has set out six indicators to watch as results come in, from the first House returns in Indiana and Kentucky to the Democratic margin among young voters and the gap between two Republican vote totals in Texas. Writing in an election preview, Montanaro says the early results and the composition of the electorate may offer clues to how the night could go.
Indiana and Kentucky report results in the 6 p.m. ET hour, and lots of Florida's House race results will come in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, though statewide contests there such as the Senate and governor races will not be called before 8 p.m. ET at the earliest, Montanaro writes. He nominates Indiana's 5th Congressional District and Kentucky's 6th as early bellwethers: both are Republican-held seats that became more competitive over the cycle, and close results or results tipping to Democrats could suggest low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave. In Florida, the 22nd District is Democratic-held but was redrawn to favour Republicans, while the 27th, which Trump won by double digits, is heavily Latino and could indicate how that group is voting.
The Republican share of independents is the second measure. Montanaro describes a realignment in the Trump era, with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting Democratic. On his reading, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46 per cent of independents and have lost when they fall short, noting that Mitt Romney won 55 per cent of independents in 2012 and still lost the presidency.
In Michigan, where a Republican win would raise the number of Republican-held seats Democrats must flip to five to take the Senate, Montanaro says the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed needs a strong showing among Black voters in Wayne County. He reports that during the Trump era Democrats have needed 68 per cent or more there to win Michigan, unless they overperform in the suburbs: Senator Elissa Slotkin took 63 per cent in Wayne County in 2024 and won, while Kamala Harris took 62 per cent and lost.
Young voters are the fourth indicator. Turnout among 18 to 29 year olds falls from 43 per cent of registered voters in presidential elections to 21 per cent in midterms, according to Montanaro, and Democrats have generally prospered when they win the group by more than 20 points. The exception was 2022, when a margin of 28 points accompanied a loss of nine House seats but a gain of one in the Senate.
In Texas, Montanaro writes that past polling errors have bred scepticism that the Democrat James Talarico's margin-of-error lead in polling averages is enough to win, given that no Democrat has won statewide since 1994 and no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years, in a state Trump won by 14 points in 2024. He suggests watching whether the gap between Governor Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton exceeds 400,000 votes, the rough difference by which Ted Cruz trailed Abbott in 2018 while still winning by more than 200,000 votes. Talarico's other route runs through South Texas, where Montanaro says he would need to beat Beto O'Rourke's 2018 share of 64 per cent of Latinos, who made up 26 per cent of the electorate, and improve on O'Rourke's totals in Cameron (63 per cent), Hidalgo (69 per cent), Webb (71 per cent) and Nueces (51 per cent) counties, as well as in the Dallas suburbs of Collin (47 per cent), Denton (46 per cent) and Tarrant (51 per cent).
Finally, Montanaro points to party identification in exit polls. Democrats fell to 31 per cent of the electorate in 2024, a low, and he says they are likely to need a far higher share to do well. He cites the latest NPR poll, in which 53 per cent of likely voters said they strongly disapproved of the job Trump is doing, as a likely unifying force for the left, and flags the Michigan Senate race and Michigan's 7th Congressional District, where progressive Democrats are running in purple territory, as races to watch for party unity.
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Democratic share of the vote in Wayne County, Michigan, in selected elections
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Source: OPB
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The results will decide which party controls the House and Senate, and with it the scope for the president's legislative agenda over the next two years.
Montanaro's indicators give readers a way to read early returns: the first House results in Indiana, Kentucky and Florida, the Republican share of independents, and the Democratic margin in Wayne County can signal the shape of the night long before control is settled.
Several measures, including the Texas vote gap and the Democratic share of the electorate, will also shape how both parties read their own coalitions ahead of the next presidential primary.
Background
US midterm elections are held between presidential contests, with every House seat, about a third of the Senate and numerous governorships and state legislatures on the ballot. Turnout is typically well below presidential levels, and the party holding the White House has often lost ground in Congress. This cycle has played out against a realignment Montanaro describes as a decade long: blue-collar white voters moving toward Trump, fewer voters identifying as Democrats, and better-educated white voters drifting toward the Democrats.
What to Watch
Early returns in Indiana's 5th, Kentucky's 6th, Florida's 22nd and Florida's 27th, the first hard evidence of turnout and of the Latino vote.
Whether Republicans clear 46 per cent of independents in exit polls, the threshold Montanaro says has separated their wins from their losses.
The Democratic margin in Wayne County and the gap between Greg Abbott's and Ken Paxton's vote totals in Texas, both of which Montanaro treats as thresholds for a Democratic path to victory.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
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SupportedThe article presents six indicators to watch on US midterm election night.OPB: “For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to watch”
Not in the sourcesThe six indicators are attributed to OPB's Domenico Montanaro.OPB: “here are six things to watch”
SupportedIndiana and Kentucky results are expected in the 6 p.m. ET hour, and many Florida House results in the 7 p.m. ET hour; statewide Florida contests will not be called before 8 p.m. ET at the earliest.OPB: “Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour. [...] lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour [...] statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won’t be called at the earliest until 8 p.m. ET.”
SupportedClose results or Democratic leads in Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th could signal low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.OPB: “If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”
SupportedRepublicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents, and lost when they fall short.OPB: “Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven’t, they’ve lost.”
SupportedDuring the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless they overperform in the suburbs.OPB: “During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they can overperform in the suburbs.”
Partly supportedTurnout among 18-to-29-year-olds falls from 43% of registered voters in presidential elections to 21% in midterms.OPB: “During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots. But in midterms, that falls to 21%”
SupportedIn 2022, Democrats won the young-voter group by 28 points, lost nine House seats and gained a Senate seat.OPB: “2022 +28, Republicans win House, Democrats gain Senate seat”
SupportedThe Abbott–Paxton vote gap to watch is more than 400,000 votes, based on the approximate gap between Abbott and Cruz in 2018.OPB: “In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott [...] So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.”
SupportedIn 2018, O'Rourke won 64% of Latino voters, who made up 26% of the electorate.OPB: “Statewide, O’Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they were 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls .”
SupportedDemocrats made up 31% of the electorate in 2024, a low.OPB: “The percentage of those saying they were Democrats hit a low in 2024 at 31%.”
SupportedIn the latest NPR poll, 53% of likely voters said they strongly disapproved of Trump's job performance.OPB: “53% of likely voters in the latest NPR poll said they strongly disapproved of the job he’s doing.”