South Africans went to the polls on Wednesday in local elections with the governing African National Congress on course for a bruising result amid discontent over water outages, power cuts and crumbling infrastructure. Polls show the ANC winning less than a third of the vote, down from 45.6% at the last municipal elections in 2021 and 40.2% in the 2024 national elections.
The ANC is still likely to be the largest party, but vote fragmentation means it could end up leading coalition governments in many cities while losing control of others. Unstable coalitions are already a feature of many of South Africa's 257 municipalities, and analysts point to their high turnover as a major reason for poor service delivery.
Nelson Mandela led the ANC to power in 1994 at the end of apartheid as the country's first black president. Wednesday's vote chooses councillors and parties rather than mayors directly: the electoral commission has a week to announce the final results, after which parties have two weeks to form councils and elect mayors.
In Gauteng, the country's most populous province and its economic engine, Johannesburg, a city of 4.8 million people that has faced water shortages for more than a week, has had 10 mayors in as many years. The neighbouring municipality of Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021, and in Tshwane, which contains the capital, Pretoria, the mayoralty has rotated between parties four times since 2020. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, in east Tshwane.
The centre-right, white-led Democratic Alliance is leading the polls in all three metros but has not been polling above 40%. The ANC's national leadership is open to working with the DA in Gauteng, according to South African media, mirroring the national government of unity in which the two parties are the largest partners. Local ANC leaders are reportedly not in favour of a DA tie-up. Across the province's three metros the ANC currently governs in combination with the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters and the populist Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA.
In Johannesburg, the DA's Helen Zille, a former Cape Town mayor, has run a spirited campaign featuring viral stunts, including the 75-year-old snorkelling in a pothole and kayaking along a flooded street. She is still viewed with suspicion by many, especially black voters, over controversial past comments appearing to excuse colonialism, and some voters cite soaring housing costs in Cape Town, run by the DA since 2006, as a reason not to support her. Herman Mashaba, a former DA mayor of Johannesburg who now leads ActionSA, polling around 10%, has ruled out working with Zille in the city and has called her a "racist", an allegation she has always fervently denied. The ANC, for its part, has three possible mayoral candidates for the city amid factional infighting.
In eThekwini, the metro containing the port city of Durban, the uMkhonto we Sizwe party of former ANC president Jacob Zuma is polling above 40%. Zuma, 84, who has weathered and denied numerous corruption allegations, is set to take many of the votes of his former party, which won 42% in eThekwini in 2021 and is now polling around 10%. The DA looks set to retain its majority in Cape Town, although probably with less than the 58% it won in 2021, as unaffordable housing turns more voters against the party.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Control of Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, the metros at the centre of South Africa's economy, could change hands or come to depend on fragile coalitions, with polls putting the ANC below a third of the vote nationally.
- Analysts link high coalition turnover to poor service delivery, so another round of unstable councils could prolong the water outages and power cuts that have driven voter anger.
- The scale of the ANC's projected decline will shape its national trajectory after falling from 45.6% in 2021 to 40.2% in the 2024 national elections.
Background
South Africa's local elections choose councillors and parties, with mayors elected indirectly by councils rather than directly by voters. The ANC has been the dominant force in South African politics since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994 at the end of apartheid, and municipal government is where public frustration over basic services is most directly felt. Coalition administration has become common across the country's 257 municipalities, and the Guardian reports that analysts identify the frequent turnover of those arrangements as a major driver of poor service delivery.
Key Perspectives
Herman Mashaba (ActionSA): has ruled out working with Helen Zille in Johannesburg and has called her a "racist", an allegation she has always fervently denied.
Helen Zille (DA): is campaigning for mayor of Johannesburg and has fervently denied the allegation that she is racist.
ANC national leadership: is open to working with the DA in Gauteng, according to South African media, mirroring the national government of unity.
Local ANC leaders: are reportedly not in favour of a tie-up with the DA in the province.
Analysts: point to the high turnover of unstable coalitions as a major reason for poor service delivery.
What to Watch
- The electoral commission's final results, due within a week of the vote, which will establish how far the ANC has fallen and who controls the largest metros.
- Coalition negotiations in Gauteng over the two weeks parties have to form councils and elect mayors, including whether the ANC's national leadership's openness to the DA prevails over the reported opposition of local leaders.
- Whether the DA holds Cape Town and by how much its majority slips, and how large the MK party's share in eThekwini turns out to be.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- SupportedPolls point to a bruising result for the ANC in South Africa’s local elections.World news | The Guardian: “The African National Congress is on course for a bruising result in South Africa’s local elections on Wednesday”
- SupportedPolls suggest the ANC could win less than a third of the vote, while fragmentation could leave it leading city coalitions.World news | The Guardian: “polls show it getting less than a third of the vote”
- SupportedThe ANC’s vote share was 45.6% in the 2021 municipal elections and 40.2% in the 2024 national elections.World news | The Guardian: “down from 45.6% at the last municipal elections in 2021 and 40.2% in 2024’s national elections”
- SupportedSouth Africans went to the polls on Wednesday in local elections.World news | The Guardian: “South Africa’s local elections on Wednesday as voters go to the polls”
- SupportedHerman Mashaba called Helen Zille a “racist,” an allegation she has denied.World news | The Guardian: “Mashaba has called Zille a “racist”, an allegation she has always fervently denied.”
- SupportedThe ANC is still likely to be the largest party, and vote fragmentation could leave it leading city coalition governments while losing control of others.World news | The Guardian: “The former liberation movement, which Nelson Mandela led to power in 1994 at the end of apartheid as South Africa’s first black president, is still likely to be the largest party. However, polls show it getting less than a third of the vote”
- SupportedHigh turnover in unstable municipal coalitions is cited by analysts as a major reason for poor service delivery.World news | The Guardian: “Unstable coalitions are already a feature of many of South Africa’s 257 municipalities, and analysts point to their high turnover as a major reason for poor service delivery”
- SupportedThe DA leads polls in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane but has not polled above 40%.World news | The Guardian: “The centre-right, white-led Democratic Alliance is leading the polls in all three metros but has not been polling above 40%.”
- SupportedZille’s campaign included her snorkelling in a pothole and kayaking along a flooded street at age 75.World news | The Guardian: “viral stunts including the 75-year-old snorkelling in a pothole and kayaking along a flooded street.”
- SupportedIn eThekwini, the uMkhonto we Sizwe party is polling above 40%, while the ANC is polling around 10% there after winning 42% in 2021.World news | The Guardian: “the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party of the former ANC president Jacob Zuma is polling above 40%. The 84-year-old Zuma, who has weathered and denied numerous corruption allegations, is set to take many of the votes of his former party, which won 42% in eThekwini in 2021 and is now polling around 10%.”
- SupportedThe DA is expected to retain its Cape Town majority, probably with less than its 58% share in 2021, as unaffordable housing turns more voters against it.World news | The Guardian: “The DA looks set to retain its majority in Cape Town, although probably with less than the 58% of the vote it won in 2021, as unaffordable housing turns more voters against the party.”
- SupportedThe electoral commission has a week to announce final results, after which parties have two weeks to form councils and elect mayors.World news | The Guardian: “South Africa’s electoral commission will have a week to announce the final results of Wednesday’s vote, which chooses councillors and parties, with mayors not directly elected. Parties will then have two weeks from the announcement to form councils and elect mayors.”